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韓國大選最後沖刺,候選人輪流對中國放狠話:部署薩德、擊沉漁船 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

韓國大選最後沖刺,候選人輪流對中國放狠話:部署薩德、擊沉漁船

韓國大選最後沖刺,候選人輪流對中國放狠話:部署薩德、擊沉漁船
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作为一个东北亚小国,韩国曾一度凭借超高速经济增长震惊世界,被称之为“汉江奇迹”。有经济做支撑,外加美国的扶持,韩国在很多领域颇有建树。比如军事领域在设计和制造上都很有特点的K9自行火炮,电信领域著名的三星电子产品及传统制造领域的LNG船舶建造等。但随着上世纪90年代亚洲金融危机来临,韩国经济遭到重创,此后虽有所恢复但再也没能重复当年的辉煌。即便文在寅上台后公开宣称按照联合国经济标准,韩国已经成为发达国家并得到相关国际机构认可。但一个“发达国家”的名头并不能掩盖韩国经济疲软的现实,就业欠缺与出口不振让“发达国家”的光环显得非常苍白无力。面对这种情况,韩国的政客们不是集中精力寻找解决问题的办法,反而希望借助其他事情转移国内注意力。在韩国新一轮总统大选进入白热化之际,两名候选人纷纷向中国发出强硬言论,以此增加自身社会支持力度。

韩国大选最后冲刺,候选人轮流对中国放狠话:部署萨德、击沉渔船

据韩国JTBC电视台2月9日报道,距韩国总统大选还有不到一个月,韩国社会突然因为北京冬奥会而出现大范围排华、仇华情绪,其中主要焦点是“开幕式韩服争议”和“短道速滑裁判争议”。在韩国媒体炒作下,韩国国内的反华情绪高涨。受此影响,2名韩国总统候选人近日也接连发出对华强硬言论。

据韩国《韩民族日报》2月9日报道,韩国国民力量党总统候选人尹锡悦于2月8日在美国《外交》杂志上发表文章称,“构筑坚固的韩美同盟就是巩固韩国外交的中心轴”。尹锡悦批判文在寅政府的外交安保政策,主张韩国应对追加部署“萨德”系统持开放态度。在中美大国博弈领域,尹锡悦也认为,韩国应该站在美国一边,还应带头促进自由、开放、包容的印太秩序,他甚至主张韩国应积极参与美日印澳“四方安全对话”机制。另据韩国MBC电视台2月9日报道,韩国共同民主党总统候选人李在明在接受采访时公然表示将严厉打击甚至“击沉非法捕捞的中国渔船”。虽然这番言论引起不少争议,但更值得关注的事情还是李在明本人的变化。因为就在不久前的电视辩论中,他还强调应继续与中国的合作关系并反对追加部署“萨德”。对此,有政治分析人士认为,他的态度转变应当是为适应韩国国内近段时间不断增加的反华情绪。

韩国大选最后冲刺,候选人轮流对中国放狠话:部署萨德、击沉渔船

事实上,韩国这些总统候选人出现这样的言论并不意外。因为政治制度的限制,他们想要登上总统宝座就需要足够的选票。如果不能迎合选民,那就很难获得选票。在这种简单粗暴的政治逻辑指导下,无论选民的观点多么幼稚可笑,候选人们都要“一本正经胡说八道”。但争取选票不过是表面原因,真正让这些颇有政治阅历的总统候选人罔顾现实,去针对中国大放厥词的根本原因还是韩国多年来的经济不景气。纵然纸面经济数据还是有所增长,但韩国经济和日本经济一样,都出现严重的“内部停滞”。一方面,高新技术领域的开拓很难实现盈利,投入与产出严重不成正比。另一方面,传统制造领域在以中国为首新兴国家挤压下节节败退。在如此不利环境中,大量有助于增加就业岗位的基础产业迅速萎缩或消失,普通大众不仅面临就业的巨大压力,日常生活的便利程度也有所下降。

韩国大选最后冲刺,候选人轮流对中国放狠话:部署萨德、击沉渔船

造成韩国经济陷入这等窘境的原因很明显,那就是单一的出口导向型经济。这种经济发展模式一手缔造韩国的“汉江奇迹”,也让韩国经济高度依赖国际市场。一旦国际市场出现大规模波动,韩国经济就可能迅速受到影响。而且为迎合国际市场的客户,韩国的金融领域开放程度很高且风险防控能力极差。这导致其面对国际金融大鳄们的洗劫时毫无还手之力,上世纪90年代的亚洲金融危机中韩国的表现就是很好的案例。此外,韩国财阀横行。他们控制着国家所有资源,操控着社会各方面的运行,导致韩国经济的很多弊端无法得到根本改革。无论是当前的韩国总统候选人们还是最近的几届总统,想通过正常手段扭转韩国经济颓势无疑是天方夜谭。既然无法解决问题,那就不如制造新问题来掩盖旧问题。很显然,攻击中国是个非常好的“新问题”。

首先,韩国国内长期存在浓厚反华气氛。由于复杂历史原因,韩国社会一直有许多奇怪的文化认知,其中大部分和中国有关。如认为历史上的中国是“韩国的一部分”,中国文化起源于韩国及许多中国重要历史王朝都是韩国的“藩属国”等。这些观点虽然可笑且不值得一驳,但在韩国社会却颇有市场。中韩围绕端午节出现的国家层面争端及不久前网络上的“泡菜之争”,背后的文化推手都是韩国奇葩的社会认知。基于这种文化认知,韩国社会自然普遍会有着仇华心态,认为历史上中国不过是韩国的“附属国”。可如今,由于中国日渐强大,将韩国的“古典文化全都偷走”。这样的社会环境中,韩国的政客们只要发出一些对华强硬言论就可能获得底层民众积极响应。不管经济发展怎样艰难,只要谈到仇视中国就可以让韩国大众暂时忘却空空如也的钱包。

韩国大选最后冲刺,候选人轮流对中国放狠话:部署萨德、击沉渔船

其次,韩国政客需要美国支持。国民力量党总统候选人尹锡悦关于“韩国应该站在美国一边”的言论很有代表性,因为亲美韩国的“基本国策”。作为一个美国一手缔造的国家,韩国从立国开始就被美国牢牢控制。从经济建设到军事指挥,完全听命于美国,甚至是国家最重要的战时军事指挥权也是近几年才提议收回。在美国操控下,韩国几乎成为美国的“提款机”。一方面,美国屡屡操控韩国军事装备采购部门高价采购美国的二手军事装备和大量不合格零部件。文在寅上台后曾多次要求公开相关采购资金数额与流向,可一直遭到阻挠,许多韩国军方高层还公开批评文在寅的调查计划。从这一系列事件中可以看出,美国对韩国各个领域控制程度之深。一个成熟的韩国政客想要在政坛立足,首先要学会的东西就是保证自身政治生涯,毕竟“活着才能打输出”。可如果想保证自身政治生涯,最便捷的方式便是讨好美国。

韩国大选最后冲刺,候选人轮流对中国放狠话:部署萨德、击沉渔船

自中国成为全球第二大经济体后,中美博弈日趋激烈。拜登政府上台后,延续前任对华强硬政策,导致中美关系迟迟没有好转的迹象。这种情况下,总统候选人们发出对华强硬言论,既可以迎合韩国社会普遍仇华心理还能向美国“表忠心”,可谓是“一箭双雕”。而且他们的身份是总统候选人,并不代表韩国官方态度,也不会有太大政治风险。纵然引发中国愤怒,他们也可以将责任推给韩国国家或自身所属的政党。既然是如此“无本万利”的好事,那这些唯利是图的政客们自然不会拒绝。

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