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俄羅斯放大招,每天白白燒掉,1000萬美元天然氣,讓歐洲欲哭無淚 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

俄羅斯放大招,每天白白燒掉,1000萬美元天然氣,讓歐洲欲哭無淚

俄羅斯放大招,每天白白燒掉,1000萬美元天然氣,讓歐洲欲哭無淚
2,197

每天1000万美元,俄罗斯正在白白烧掉大量的天然气。据环球网报道,俄罗斯目前正不得不每天烧掉价值1000万美元的天然气。



这座天然气站位于圣彼得堡西北方向、很接近芬兰边境的波尔托瓦亚,是“北溪-1”天然气管道起点的一座压气站,归属于俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司。

根据测算,这些烧掉的天然气大约折合每天434万立方米的天然气,折合大约1千万美元。相当于一年烧掉16亿立方米天然气,可占到欧盟需求总量的0.5%。



烧掉天然气的主要原因首先是俄罗斯大幅减少了对欧输气量,俄罗斯为了增强能源武器的威力,减少通过北溪1号向欧洲天然气的供应量,但多余的天然气又没有合适的买家,俄罗斯本身也不具备消化储存能力,更不能封天然气井(因为那样在重启时技术和成本上会让运营商难以承受),因此,从6月开始,大量天然气被直接烧掉。

第二是欧洲不要了。根据欧洲全体成员国通过对俄石油禁运提案,欧盟将从8月起停止购买、进口或转运产自俄罗斯或从俄罗斯出口的煤炭及其他固体化石燃料,彻底终止从俄罗斯进口石油。另外,欧盟将天然气需求在过去5年平均消费量的基础上减少15%。为彻底停止从俄罗斯购买天然气做好准备。



俄罗斯通往德国的“北溪-1”天然气管道输气量7月27日降至满负荷输送量的20%。而且俄罗斯自己的储气设施都已经灌满。

停止开采天然气田几乎是不可能的,某些高质量阀门和设备还要靠进口。如果关闭气田,也就意味着废掉了天然气井。因此目前俄罗斯不得不把开采出来、但暂时卖不掉的天然气储存起来,存储空间不够了就只能烧掉。

实际上,天然气出口的减少已经影响了俄罗斯的财政收入。据俄罗斯财政部发布了经济数据,在6月份,俄罗斯的天然气出口额大约为6300亿卢布(折合107亿美元),环比下降了40%。俄罗斯在5月份的天然气出口额达到了破纪录的1万亿卢布。



这说明欧洲削减进口俄罗斯天然气的计划已经开始见效。尽管天气气价格还在暴涨,但俄罗斯的天然气出口收入却开始明显减少。

由于对欧天然气与对亚洲天然气的产地和管道不同,因此这些对欧天然气还没办法改为对中国供应。俄罗斯供应欧洲的天然气,例如北溪-1,亚马尔和联盟等管道,气源主要来自乌拉尔地区和北极。而供应亚洲的天然气主要来自西伯利亚地区。这些油气田之间并没有相互联通。所以,俄罗斯难以把欧洲方向的多余产能转移至对中国出口。



由于前几年俄罗斯故意用天然气拿捏中国,推三阻四,造成对华输气管道长达十年的艰苦谈判,造成对华输气的滞后,一时也无法迅速大幅提供高对华输气量。中俄目前的管道天然气的供应量还不是很多,西伯利亚力量-2等几条新增管线还在建设,供应量翻倍或翻几番还需要等几年,远水不解近渴。

同时,俄罗斯液化天然气的基础设施很薄弱,无法大幅度增加液化天然气的出口量。要我说,这就是俄罗斯没有远见,活该。俄罗斯现在一定很后悔前些年在天然气管道项目上对中国的扭扭捏捏和三心二意。



以现在的开采和出口差距,俄罗斯的天然气储空间将在下半年达到上限。届时,如果还是未能增加出口量,那么俄罗斯将被迫大面积的停产和封堵气田。一般情况下,停产和封堵的最终结局就是气田报废。

在天然气领域,俄罗斯唯一能做的只有两步,一是想方设法提高对中国的出口量。二是努力推高天然气价格。



普京拧紧天然气阀门,就能在冬天冻死老欧洲。这句话其实是从2014年开始穿出来的,一直没得以实现,普京估计很郁闷。

目前,欧盟已经铁了心与俄罗斯脱钩,要彻底摆脱对俄天然气依赖,哪怕付出一定代价。欧洲减少对俄天然气依赖,俄罗斯用天然气拿捏欧洲,其实是一把双刃剑,欧洲和俄罗斯都很痛苦,这就要看谁先挺不住了。

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