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若完全失去俄氣,德國就算有95%天然氣庫存,或也僅能強撐2個半月 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

若完全失去俄氣,德國就算有95%天然氣庫存,或也僅能強撐2個半月

若完全失去俄氣,德國就算有95%天然氣庫存,或也僅能強撐2個半月
2,137

据华尔街日报报道,德国政府官员称,德国计划推迟关闭国内最后三座核电站,因为在俄罗斯限制对德国的天然气供应后,德国或在今年冬天面临能源短缺。尽管这是暂时的,但这将标志着德国首次背离21世纪初提出的逐步淘汰核能的政策,随着时间的推移,这一政策已成为政治共识。

报道还称,有关决定尚未获得德国内阁正式通过,可能需要议会投票表决。三名政府高级官员称细节仍在讨论中。内阁的决定还需要等待德国能源需求评估的结果,评估结果将在未来几周内得出,但官员们表示,评估结果已成定局。

然而,随后德国经济部发言人表示,媒体关于德国决定继续运营核电站的报道“毫无事实依据”,德国仍在进行电力稳定性压力测试,将根据测试结果,决定是否继续运行剩下的核电站。消息刺激美国天然气期货盘中涨超7%至9.36美元/百万英热的盘中高点。洲际交易所荷兰TTF天然气期货价格日内上涨超10%。

随着能源危机恶化,德国电价在欧洲能源交易所(European Energy Exchange AG)首次飙升至每兆瓦时500欧元以上。上述三个电厂的发电量约占德国2022年Q2发电量的6%。德国广泛依赖天然气发电厂,俄乌冲突发生后,天然气供应不足,德国因此重新启动了封存的燃煤发电厂以增加发电量。

周二,德国经济部长哈贝克与能源巨头Uniper、莱茵集团签署了一份谅解备忘录,从今年冬季一直到2024年3月,这两家能源巨头将保障位于Brunsbuettel和Wilhelmshaven的两处浮动式液化天然气接收终端拥有充足的库存。周一,德国联邦网络管理局局长Klaus Müller表示,该国必须将天然气消费量减少至少20%。他说,即便德国天然气库存在11月前能达到95%的目标,但如果俄罗斯完全切断供应,这些库存也只能满足德国供暖、工业和电力上大约两个半月的需求。

德国公用事业行业协会(BDEW)周二表示,即使考虑到天气差异,德国2022年上半年的天然气消费量仍显著下降。BDEW根据初步数据计算得出,德国2022年上半年天然气消费量同比减少了近15%,主要原因是春季天气温和得多。BDEW称,即使经温度影响调整,天然气消费量也同比下降了8%。能源价格的大幅上涨、经济发展的疲软以及个人积极采取的节能措施也可能是造成这种下降的原因。

零对冲表示,德国拥有一些短期危机管理工具,但可能不足以阻止经济危机,因为能源恶性通胀在冬季开始之前就已经摧毁了家庭和企业。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司周二表示,欧盟的反俄制裁引发了关于北溪1号天然气管道设备的争端,欧洲天然气价格在今年冬季可能飙升60%,达到4000美元以上/千立方米(约400欧元/兆瓦时)。

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