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英國分裂或成為現實!獨立公投將被提上日程,日不落帝國將落日 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

英國分裂或成為現實!獨立公投將被提上日程,日不落帝國將落日

英國分裂或成為現實!獨立公投將被提上日程,日不落帝國將落日
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常年来,英国一直追随美国,为其他国家的分裂主义分子提供支持,以搞乱他国。不过正所谓天道好轮回,英国在挑动了无数国家同室操戈之后,自己也遇到了分裂主义势力抬头的问题。最近几年来,英国被苏格兰独立势力搞得焦头烂额,2014年苏格兰举行了独立公投,超过四成的选民赞成苏格兰独立。八年来,苏格兰独立势力非但没有减弱,反而随着英国脱欧愈发强大,而英国政府也一直拒绝再进行一场全民公投。而就在英国为如何处理苏格兰独立问题而坐立不安时,北爱尔兰也开始积极策动独立,并且取得了实质性的进展。当地时间五月七日,主张北爱尔兰回归爱尔兰的政党新芬党在议会选举中得到了最多的席位,成为北爱议会第一大党。

根据英国法律的规定,一旦某党派成为北爱议会第一大党,那么该党派的高级干部将会成为北爱尔兰首席部长,目前新芬党副主席米歇尔·奥尼尔正是新一任北爱尔兰首席部长的最热门人选,她非常激动地对媒体表示:“这次议会选举标志着一个全新时代的开始!”。而自1921年以来,这一职位一直由支持英国政府的统一党党员担任。新芬党主席玛丽·卢·麦克唐纳明确表示,在控制议会后,新芬党就会为展开统一爱尔兰的公投做准备,希望可以在五年内进行这场公投。

虽然近年来关于苏格兰独立的消息更加频繁,但是若论展开从英国独立出去的斗争之悠久和激烈,那么整个英伦三岛无出北爱尔兰其右者。1169年,英王亨利二世下诏入侵爱尔兰。经过数百年的血腥战争和杀戮,1801年,英国终于彻底吞并了爱尔兰。然而英国在爱尔兰施行高压统治,在文化上,英国政府打击爱尔兰民众的信仰,迫害天主教徒;在经济上,英国地主的横征暴敛,成为1845年爱尔兰大饥荒的重要推手之一,导致爱尔兰人口锐减两百万。这样残暴的统治引起了爱尔兰人民的强烈抵制,自1870年代开始,爱尔兰人民先后发动了数十次反英起义。到了1921年,英国在一战中元气大伤,无力继续镇压爱尔兰民族起义,便允许爱尔兰成立自由邦,并在1949年正式承认爱尔兰共和国独立。

不过在这一过程中,英国拒绝将爱尔兰岛北部的六个郡还给爱尔兰,而是继续对其进行直接统治,这便是今天的北爱尔兰。而爱尔兰也自知无力将其武力收回,便允许英国继续统治北爱尔兰。

几十年来,北爱尔兰回归爱尔兰的运动几乎没有停止过,在这一过程中更是刺激了著名恐怖组织爱尔兰共和军的崛起,他们几十年如一日地刺杀英国官员和主张和英国合作的爱尔兰官员,袭击英国军警,曾经一手促成印巴分治的英国高级官员蒙巴顿就是死于爱尔兰共和军之手,时任英国首相撒切尔夫人也险些命丧爱尔兰共和军之手。而如今获得北爱尔兰议会多数席位的新芬党,就曾为爱尔兰共和军的建立提供了巨大帮助,不少爱尔兰共和军的干部也是新芬党党员。对于这一政党,英国政府本来采取严厉打压取缔的态度,但是进入二十世纪九十年代,英国政府已经发现彻底消灭爱尔兰共和军是不可能的,而新芬党也逐渐放弃了武装斗争的路线,希望通过议会斗争获取独立。最终英国政府认为“两害相权取其轻”,便给予了新芬党合法政党的身份,允许其参加选举。

原本新芬党只是议会少数派,除了一些激进民族主义者外,推动北爱尔兰回归爱尔兰的势力也日益衰微,但是英国脱欧改变这一形势。长期以来北爱尔兰和爱尔兰之间的经贸和人员交流非常频繁,得益于欧盟的有关规定,双方经贸和人员往来非常便利,只需要极为简单的手续即可。但是随着英国脱欧,北爱尔兰和爱尔兰的有关联系将被打断,原来需要简单手续就可进行流动的人员和物资,现在需要繁杂的审批,而且自由度也将大打折扣。这就直接引发了北爱尔兰民众的强烈不满,直接让主张北爱尔兰回归的新芬党一举夺取了议会多数席位。

北爱尔兰回归爱尔兰运动带给英国的压力,远比苏格兰独立势力造成的压力大。首先爱尔兰共和军的凶狠英国政府早就领教过,如果英国政府对北爱尔兰的合法投票斗争不予理会的话,那么这些激进武装组织势必会在英国各处展开破坏和刺杀,这样的压力恐怕是英国政府难以承受的。其次北爱尔兰回归运动长期得到不少爱尔兰民间组织和个人的支持,甚至不少美籍爱尔兰裔团体也为北爱尔兰回归运动提供帮助,不像苏格兰独立运动那么孤立无援。一个既敢于使用武力乃至恐怖袭击,且有外部援助的分裂主义势力,显然是英国政府无法对付得了的。

而除了上述问题外,更令英国当局头疼的是在北爱尔兰问题上,欧盟大多数国家站在了利益的那一头,并不和自己站在同一战线!去年6月份召开的G7峰会,就在大会的第二天,欧盟就北爱尔兰问题严肃警告英国!根据后续媒体披露,在去年G7峰会议程开始之前,法德英三国领导人以及欧盟高官进行了会谈。而会谈的主要内容就是敦促英国好好执行《北爱尔兰议定书》的有关内容,此前英国政府曾因为公然破坏该议定书,违反其中条款而造成了英国与欧盟关系紧张。

所谓《北爱尔兰议定书》就是英国脱欧的产物之一。2016年英国脱欧,北爱尔兰地区认为如果跟随英国脱离欧盟,会为当地与爱尔兰沟通制造不少麻烦,而爱尔兰也持相同观点,欧盟也希望可以保留与英国继续对话的窗口。最终在多方的要求之下,英国通过了《北爱尔兰议定书》,该文件规定北爱尔兰仍得以留在欧盟单一市场之中,但是这样的话英国其他地区的商品想要进入北爱尔兰却要受到限制,因此英国政府并不想认真执行该议定书。而这就引发了欧盟的不满,所以欧盟主要领导人才会向英国发难,要求英国严格遵守《北爱尔兰议定书》。虽然此事在当今国际并不算是头条新闻,但从中我们可以看出,所谓的西方联盟,说到底就是一个纯粹的利益联盟!而在北爱尔兰问题上,欧盟必然会继续以利益为先,如果事情真的这样发展,那么英欧关系必然会面临挑战。并且此前,欧盟委员会主席冯·德莱恩就明确表示:欧盟希望和英国建立良好的关系,但这必须建立在英国严格执行已经达成的各项协议的基础之上。

自英国迈出脱欧的第一步后,西方利益集体瓦解的多米诺骨牌就已经开始倾倒。而多米诺骨牌何时全部轰然倒塌,就要看后续西方国家之间还会因利益上演怎样的“猴戏”。西方国家兄弟阋墙,已成为了不争的事实,作为发霸权主义的坚定维护者,我们也乐得看到霸权主义国家分崩瓦解!

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