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德國外長威脅中國:先解除對立陶宛制裁,中歐投資協定才能繼續談 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

德國外長威脅中國:先解除對立陶宛制裁,中歐投資協定才能繼續談

德國外長威脅中國:先解除對立陶宛制裁,中歐投資協定才能繼續談
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随着中国和立陶宛的争端持续,中国已经展现出较强的对局势的掌控力。在中国全方位反制之下,立陶宛遭受严重经济损失。虽然立方曾一度非常嚣张,声称中立关系陷入僵局对自身“没有任何损失”,甚至还扬言要和其他国家分享所谓“对抗中国的经验”。但大批滞销的商品不会因为几句狠话就销售出去,减少的国际物流量也不会因为嘴炮而恢复。由于经济压力巨大,立陶宛国内开始出现分化。一部分务实派趋于承认错误,尽快修复中立关系,避免更大损失。而许多顽固派仍对美欧持有幻想,认为在外界压力下,中国一定会让步,所以立陶宛需要做的事情就是“坚持住”。在此敏感时刻,德国却突然跳出来支持立陶宛。德国外长以长期被搁置的中欧投资协定相威胁,表示想要投资协定通过就必须先解除对立陶宛的制裁。

德国外长威胁中国:先解除对立陶宛制裁,中欧投资协定才能继续谈

据德媒《南德意志报》的报道称,德国外长贝尔伯克与中国外长王毅会晤后接受公开采访时表示,立陶宛遭到中国“经济胁迫”是“不可接受的事情”。欧盟已经启动所谓的“经济政策盾牌”来对抗这种胁迫,因为“敲诈”不能成为中国和欧洲关系中的工具。同时,她还表示,中国必须解除对部分欧洲议员的制裁,否则中欧投资协定就是“一场闹剧”。此外,她毫不掩饰自己对于协定的厌恶,非常明确指出对协定内容“保留意见”。她认为协定一方面没有为中国和欧洲的公司创造平等机会,另一方面,中国被有证据证明本国没有强迫劳动的问题。贝尔伯克还污蔑中国对立陶宛正常的经济反制行为是,“分裂欧洲并阻止其他国家在立陶宛生产的企图”。

德国外长威胁中国:先解除对立陶宛制裁,中欧投资协定才能继续谈

不过颇有些讽刺意味的是,根据中国外交部发出的消息,此次中的外长会晤并没有涉及这些敏感主题,反而是达成不少共识。如办好建交70周年庆祝活动并筹备第七轮中德政府磋商,充分发挥高级别财经、安全和战略及法治国家对话机制的作用,在相互理解基础上就人权和民主等议题进行平等对话,增进相互了解等。可根据贝尔伯克的讲话,她不仅在会谈中利用中欧投资协定威胁中国,还着重谈及俄乌边境紧张局势。按照她的说法,会谈应当是剑拔弩张,很难想象会取得这些共识。至于贝尔伯克到底有没有像她自己说得那般“凶悍”,恐怕只有她自己知道。

不过需要注意的是,贝尔伯克的这番发言在一定程度上也代表德国政府的态度,贝尔伯克不过是走上前台的代言人而已。德国之所以选在这时让高官放出这样的言论,并不是真的想支持立陶宛,很重要原因还是在于中欧投资协定。

德国外长威胁中国:先解除对立陶宛制裁,中欧投资协定才能继续谈

首先,德国是中欧投资协定最大受益国,希望尽快通过。作为欧盟的绝对主导国家,德国利用欧盟的建立“合法的”拆除很多欧洲国家关税壁垒。由于占据产业链条优势,德国的优质商品很快冲垮很多其他欧洲国家同类制造业。此外,因为有欧元区存在,很多受到德国产品冲击最严重的国家还无法通过货币手段阻止德国的经济冲击。正是因为这样的巨大益处,德国才投入很大精力维系欧盟。此番中欧投资协定的协商中,德国一直是欧盟一方的主导力量。在德国看来,中欧投资协定顺利签署表面上是有利于整个欧盟,实际上最大受益者是德国。可正是由于欧盟内部存在这种不平等的经济关系,很多欧盟国家,特别是中小成员国对德国并不满意。尤其是欧债危机后,德国表现出极强的家长作风,用非常严厉且专制的手段对待中小成员国,大大侵害他们的利益,造成他们的不满情绪进一步累积。中欧投资协定固然可以给整个欧盟带来经济发展机遇,但对中小成员国来说,需要很多年才有可能看到效果。可对德国而言,获得受益几乎是立竿见影。造成这种巨大反差的原因固然很复杂,但对中小成员国的刺激却非常强烈,他们会逐渐形成一种共识,即中欧投资协定不过是让德国单方面受益。所以协定签署后,很多中小成员国纷纷采取措施阻挠协定通过,再加上后来中美关系进一步恶化,该协定遂遭到搁置。

德国外长威胁中国:先解除对立陶宛制裁,中欧投资协定才能继续谈

面对这种情况,德国必须想办法让大多数成员国接受该协定。而首先要做的事情,就是消除中小成员国将中欧投资协定认作“中德投资协定”的观点。为此,德国开始有意与中欧投资协定“拉开距离”。这次贝尔伯克的讲话就很有代表性,她的讲话很重要目的就是给外界营造一种德国是为整个欧洲谋福利。只要有欧盟成员国利益受损,德国宁愿受到一些经济损失也会以整个欧洲为重。虽然贝尔伯克提到的事情和中欧投资协定没有任何关系,但通过这种方式,德国希望逐渐消除掉成员国对中欧投资协定的偏见,为最终通过奠定基础。

其次,德国希望重塑“欧洲老大”形象。不久前,欧盟的“三驾马车”之一的英国宣布脱欧。虽然德国做出很多努力,但仍无法留住英国。即便德国口头上对英国的离去“不屑一顾”,可事实上,英国脱欧事件沉重打击德国在欧盟的威信,这也是为何很多成员国敢于在中欧投资协定问题上挑战德国。如果放任这种趋势,不仅德国的利益会受损,整个欧盟也将成为一盘散沙。更为糟糕的是,由于美俄关系恶化,欧盟的东部地区非常不稳定。而德国因为执意修建“北溪2号”管线工程,导致美德关系受到影响,许多亲美的欧盟成员国也对此十分不满,认为德国并不关注欧盟的利益。

德国外长威胁中国:先解除对立陶宛制裁,中欧投资协定才能继续谈

为扭转这种态势,德国必须展现出“老大哥的气势”。此次中国与立陶宛发生争端对德国来说可谓“天赐良机”,正好借此向中国“展示强硬”,重获欧盟成员国信任。在德国政坛,向来有一种观点,即中国地理上距离德国非常遥远且实力不足,任何事情拿中国“开刀”都不会付出代价。这也是近段时间,德国屡屡有高官站出来抨击中国对立陶宛经济反制行动的主要原因之一。但不幸的是,中国也许在国际影响力上与部分国家尚有差距,可中国已经成为全球第二大经济体,是很多国家的最大贸易伙伴,这已经可以说明许多问题。德国之所以热衷于推动中欧投资协定,很重要原因也是在于中国有实力为欧洲带来发展机遇。在欧债危机后,整个欧洲的经济都笼罩在滞涨的阴影中。当新冠疫情爆发后,欧洲经济更是遭受重创。可中国不仅有效控制住疫情,还逐渐恢复高速经济增长,是全球为数不多有活力的市场之一。德国用中欧投资协定威胁中国显然是本末倒置,因为相比来说,是德国更需要中国而不是中国更需要德国。若德国真想让投资协定尽快通过,应当更多和成员国沟通,争取达成共识,而不是反复威胁中国。

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