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巡航飛彈為何每次都當開路先鋒?800戰斧可滅國,並不是開玩笑! – 有海水的地方就有中國人

巡航飛彈為何每次都當開路先鋒?800戰斧可滅國,並不是開玩笑!

巡航飛彈為何每次都當開路先鋒?800戰斧可滅國,並不是開玩笑!
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目前,世界各主要強國都至少擁有一兩款比較先進的遠程巡航飛彈,美國有著名的戰斧式巡航飛彈,俄羅斯有「口徑」巡航飛彈,中國有東風-10A巡航飛彈。這些飛彈能夠以50米高度進行超低空的地形跟蹤飛行,射程二千多公里,以複雜的航路規避敵方防空系統。

巡航飛彈的先進位導方式,靈活的發射平台,高突防能力,令敵軍防不勝防。因而獲得大國軍方的喜愛,通常在大型戰爭行動的充當「開路先鋒」,作為戰爭初期的主要突擊火力,密集發射。數百枚巡航飛彈可以在戰爭首次火力突擊中打垮一個中等強國的防空力量。

不過,正規的、一本正經的巡航飛彈不是隨便什麼阿貓阿狗就能玩的。遠程巡航飛彈技術是目前世界上最複雜最困難的飛彈技術。一般來說,玩巡航飛彈要有三個要素,一是要有個先進的任務規劃系統,美國最新型的「戰斧」Block IV 巡航飛彈形成任務規劃只需要5分鐘,整個體系作業過程也僅為3小時,十分適合打擊時間敏感目標。

三是要有一台特別省油的渦輪風扇發動機,能讓飛彈以0.7馬赫的速度飛行一個多小時。這些要素,需要整個國家的體系來支持,所以,遠程巡航飛彈是大國的專利,小國只能玩票。

四是巡航飛彈的造價要儘量的低。由於巡航飛彈是戰爭初期最大量使用的武器彈藥之一,而且由於巡航飛彈技術比較複雜,產業配套龐大,因此降低巡航飛彈造價比較難。如果產量小了,根本不行。世界各主要大國的巡航飛彈儲備量一般都在三四千枚左右。

例如美軍日常大約需要庫存4000多枚巡航飛彈(絕大多數是戰斧式飛彈),因此美國戰斧式巡航飛彈的早期價格為140萬美元,而最新的改進型降為僅60萬美元。俄羅斯在2014年制定的《俄羅斯十年軍備規劃》和《國家武器發展綱要》,計劃在6年內將新型遠程常規巡航飛彈的儲存量提升到3000枚。至於中國生產和庫存了多少枚的巡航飛彈?我們國家並沒有公布過具體數字。但可以推測一下,中國的巡航飛彈發射平台數量與俄羅斯軍隊不相上下,因此中國的巡航飛彈庫存量不會低於俄羅斯的3000枚目標。

此外,也有很多人認為,巡航飛彈的飛行速度只有0.7馬赫左右,這種飛行速度在現代防空系統面前所能發揮的作用實在有限,任何防空飛彈都能輕易擊落速度0.7馬赫的目標。因此,像美國戰斧那樣的低速巡航飛彈,應該很容易攔截。

其實,上述的觀點都是誤解。巡航飛彈可能是最難以有效攔截的目標,攔截巡航飛彈,比攔截彈道飛彈還要難。

主要原因是巡航飛彈的目標比較小,飛行高度非常低,而且能做貼近地面的地形跟蹤飛行,留給地面防空系統的反應窗口太小。

用地面雷達探測巡航飛彈很困難,由於地平線導致的探測範圍受限,由於地海雜波的複雜性,對貼近地表的飛行目標的探測距離、靈敏度和辨識度都會受到不少影響,如果有地形障礙物就更加影響探測了,所以傳統地面防空模式對巡航飛彈是束手無策的。

對於空軍來說,攔截巡航飛彈之類的低空小目標,也一直是最困難的任務,即便是有預警機的支持,預警雷達從空中將貼近地面飛行的巡航飛彈分辨出來也是個困難任務,距離要比分辨低空飛行的戰機近的得多。因此空軍戰鬥機攔截巡航飛彈的成功率不高。就是美國空軍,也沒有多少好辦法。

這不是誇張,如果解放軍對美軍發射大量超低空飛行的巡航飛彈,美軍也一樣抓瞎,他們根本沒有能力有效攔截。

而且,進行巡航飛彈打擊,可以採取很多靈活的戰術,來降低敵方的攔截概率。例如,採用先進彈道規劃系統,可繞開敵人的防空陣地,採取分散的複雜的飛行彈道,然後飛彈同時到達,可阻塞敵方防空系統的火力通道。美國人就經常玩大數量巡航飛彈打擊,一次性發射數十枚或上百枚過去,可以輕易癱瘓一個中等國家的防禦力量。

例如在2018年美國對大馬士革的巡航飛彈打擊,從阿拉伯海和地中海兩個方向發射了59枚巡航飛彈,所有飛彈都規劃為同時到達目標,命中目標的時間間隔不超過1分鐘。敘利亞的老式防空系統沒有太多的及時反應。敘利亞發射了大約40枚地空飛彈,大多數都是空襲過後發射的,沒有擊落任何目標。

在未來,如果解放軍在台海和亞太有戰事,發動巡航飛彈的火力突擊,也會是這樣的情景。

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