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暗戰!一場“貨幣政變”正在上演,美元收割根基動搖,美聯儲慫了 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

暗戰!一場“貨幣政變”正在上演,美元收割根基動搖,美聯儲慫了

暗戰!一場“貨幣政變”正在上演,美元收割根基動搖,美聯儲慫了
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凌晨的时候,美联储这个会开得让全球紧绷,毕竟决定着美元未来大收割到底采取什么手段的问题。从结果来看,美联储怂了,不是因为资本家善良,而是因为怕了。

从3个月以前说起。当时美联储有着一套计划,先慢一些加息,观察一下通胀反应,再看看经济稳不稳。

结果,美国想不到自从制裁俄罗斯以后,通胀不是持续的问题,而是加重,以至于这几个月来拜登成为了美国“抗通胀英雄”。

可惜没人买账,在他们眼里,这就是你搞出来的,现在你就得收场,想要声誉门儿都没有,很多商人也不理会他,尤其是数钱数的手抽筋的能源商家。

因此,等到真正加息的时候3月不温不火的没效果,于是5月干脆翻了一倍,到了本月,通胀还在蹭蹭蹭,市场要求75基点,华尔街部分巨头甚至预计100基点结果,美联储怕了还是75吧。

不止如此,在市场眼里鲍威尔应该强势,下一次最低还是这个标准,结果美联储还是软了。

5月就是因为狠,美元全球大收割确实有效,话说被割“趴下”国家越来越多,尤其是连饭都吃不起的国家,那就更是如此,继续重复着“美元噩梦”。

没办法,这一次水放得太多,想要抽水不是那么容易的,就说金融市场,美联储逆回购抽水日规模都已超过2万亿美元,前所未有。

当然一旦抽水收割,伤害性也是极强,以至于现在成为了无差别攻击,所有的非美货币,其中所属国家即便和美国穿一条裤子现在也不行了,裤子撑破了,资本外流迹象十分明显。

再结合由于美股瀑布式暴跌,流出来的钱就更快了,全部都在涌向美国,以至于日本有点扛不住,本来日元是助力美元收割,贬贬值差不多OK,结果135的汇率也就分分钟的事。

如果这么干下去,日元必然冲破150,甚至部分对冲机构认为要到180,势必会在亚洲再引起一次大金融动荡。

例如,日元适度贬值不利于出口,这是日本谋生的手段,一旦过度甚至控制不住,意味着进口成本急剧增加。

例如日本必买的商品油气,180汇率的日元,花的钱比现在多百分之50%才行,对日本来说就相当于中国买的是100美元原油,日本买的是150美元的。

因此,在外界压力下,日本央行和财政部稍微松了些口,说的会管的,不过没有具体说明,必然是因为畏惧美国。

除此之外,美国忠实小弟之一的加拿大也有点扛不住,两年通胀涨了400%,房价涨了五成,跟着美国加息加了半天还在被割。

先说去年根据加方数据:2021年前11个月,加拿大人对海外证券的净购买量约合1155亿美元,其中有一半儿跑到美国。

今年加拿大人更直接,美国股市好买,美国股市不好,换成美元存着,直接结果就是今年加拿大共同基金资产一直在减少。

所以,现在有了神操作,BlueBay Asset Management LLP(欧洲投资巨头)疯狂做空日本国债,说白了就是买日元升值,对外“面子理由”——不相信日本眼看日元大贬不管。

效果立马显现了,昨日美联储会还没开了,日本国债暴跌两度触发熔断,很明显目的就是测试日本政府和央行的态度。

实际上这家管理着1300亿美元资产的巨头是加拿大皇家银行的子公司,10多年前就被收购了,至于后者是众所周知专给加拿大政府赚钱的(这家银行的总裁以前不叫总裁,而是叫总统)。

看来美元这一次收割,自己人也伤得不轻,只不过明面上都不敢说而已。针对最近美元的疯狂,法国也受不了:现在美债收益率这种涨,说明“无成本货币”时代结束了。

这里的成本不是指纸张之类的成本,说的是美元多年来随便印,成本都摊到了世界头上,美元的“放水+收割”结束了。

虽然美元是霸主货币,但是很多时候需要帮助,需要支撑,也就是说他们都把你当作锚定对象,那美元就有这个地位,一旦都不认为了,那美元也就是张纸。

这个道理咱们国家200多年前也有过的,和珅说:“自己能当军机大臣,除了乾隆的功劳以外,很多时候要靠下面的人,否则自己屁也不是”。

所以美联储半夜开会的时候还是怂了,美元霸权盟友可以拥护,但是如果不给他们活路,财富流的比赚的都快,货币贬的比工资涨的都快,那必然是要和你拼命的。

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