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美議員號召停止內鬥:專注對付中國,否則10年後美國人要講普通話 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

美議員號召停止內鬥:專注對付中國,否則10年後美國人要講普通話

美議員號召停止內鬥:專注對付中國,否則10年後美國人要講普通話
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5月2日,据《观察者网》报道,美国俄亥俄州众议员、参议员候选人瑞安表示:“中国试图取代我们、在每一个领域击败美国。如果我们无法针对这些问题开展全国性的对话,10到15年后,美国人就都得讲普通话了”。



瑞安还特别指出,美国不应该把时间浪费在“无谓的斗争”上,应当“专注于对付中国”,并且声称美国的劳工失业都是中国造成的。瑞安甚至认为“我们的劳工是全世界最棒的,应当挺身而出挑战中国,从而争取自身利益”。



客观上,美国内部“无谓的斗争”是相当严重的。较之以往的党派之争,在前总统特朗普上台后,美国两党矛盾逐渐陷入极端化的状态。除去党派之争,美国的种族问题严重程度远超绝大多数西方国家,如今的美国,经常因为种族矛盾爆发大规模示威游行甚至暴力事件。虚拟经济与实体经济之间的矛盾在美国也尤为严重,以金融富豪为主的虚拟经济与以蓝领工人为主的实体经济之间隐藏着严重的矛盾,特别是在特朗普提出要实现制造业回流后,二者之间的矛盾再次被美国人发掘出来。



面对如此严重的内部矛盾,瑞安提出不要在内部矛盾上浪费时间的观点,表面上看似乎并没有太大的问题。但瑞安没有考虑的是,这些问题最终是需要解决的,如果只是一味的回避这些矛盾,那么这些矛盾只会暂时的隐藏下去,而无法彻底得到消除。在苏联解体前,美国将苏联视为竞争对手,这一行为确实团结了美国,让这些矛盾暂时得以搁置,因此瑞安才会有将中国视为竞争对手便可以隐藏这些矛盾的错误想法。这些问题,在美国竞争中处于优势地位时自然会被隐藏起来,但是如果美国在竞争中落入下风,那么将会成为美国内部爆发危机的导火索。



在此前的中美对抗中,美国一直在“搬起石头砸自己的脚”。

自2012年提出印太战略以来,中国在南海地区接连填海造了八个人工岛,并且还与多个国家建立了合作伙伴关系,在2022年3月,中国还与所罗门群岛签署了安全协议。反观美国方面,由于中国常规打击力量的迅速发展,美国开始将第一岛链的军事部署逐渐回撤至第二岛链,并尝试将军事部署零散化,防止被一网打尽。美国对中国的围追堵截,不仅没能阻止中国的一系列走出去,更没有增加自己在亚太地区的话语权,甚至导致美国只能被迫采取收缩的军事战略。

祸不单行,比军事和地缘政治上的失利更严重的是美国在经济上的失利。2018年中美贸易战正式开打,但在2018年至2021年间,美国的GDP增长了15%,中国则为23%。此外中国的贸易额在这几年间增长了超过30%,而美国则只增长了约9%。这意味着,美国对中国实行的大量制裁并没有对中国经济的发展和中国融入全球化的进程产生巨大阻力,反而使得自身经济发展与全球化进程迟滞。

对于美国来说,以中国为竞争对手是一个不明智的选择。首先,中国的制造业产值已经超过了美、德、日三大主要工业国之和,这意味着中国在全球市场中占据重要的地位,对中国发起不计成本的制裁是极容易导致自身出现严重的恶性通胀的。事实上,自2020年开始,美国的通胀率就开始屡创新高,直到2022年3月,美国的通胀率已经达到了近乎失控8.5%,同期中国的通胀率约为1.5%。



由于中国的制造业较之欧美主流国家拥有碾压性的优势,中国在军事方面的潜力也远超欧美国家。在中国,能够建造航母的船坞就有34个,而美国则只有1个。制造业的强大使得中国的军事采购价格也远远低于美国,美国阿利伯克II驱逐舰的造价约为120亿人民币,中国更为先进的055型驱逐舰造价只需要60亿人民币。极其庞大的制造业体量使得中国不论是在非战时的军事研发方面、非战时的军事采购方面、战时经济下的军事生产方面都较之其他国家具备巨大优势。

在这样的情况下,美国将中国视作对手,最后必然因为无法支付对抗中国所需要的巨大成本而崩溃。因此,和瑞安一样,众多美国政客都认为,美国最需要的是制造业回流。



在特朗普担任美国总统期间,其通过提高关税、鼓励页岩油开采、制裁发展中国家的方式,试图促进美国的制造业回流。可实际情况却是,美国的制造业产值在GDP中的占比从2018年的近12%,一路下滑到了2021年的不足10%,美国的制造业依然在萎缩。从经济学上看,美国的制造业回流如果能够成功才会让人感到奇怪。制造业本身普遍属于劳动密集型产业,作为发达国家的美国,其人工成本远超过中国与东南亚国家。如果强行使制造业回流至本国市场,那么必然需要征收大量关税,这会使得美国的商品进口困难,导致国内市场出现供不应求的情况,以至于通胀率飙升。如今的美国也确实如此,通胀率飙升、页岩油产业相关贷款存在巨大坏账风险、制造业不断萎缩。强行使制造业回流的成本美国是无法承担的。



在如今高度的全球化的背景下,美国真正需要面对的问题并不是如何与中国展开一场第一第二之间的生死较量,而是改变老旧的冷战思维和霸权主义思维。美国对抗中国的意图,绝不仅仅是要去对抗中国,更是要去对抗发展的客观规律。如果美国一意孤行,妄图逆全球化而行,继续用孤岛思维去挑战全球化,那么所导致的结果必然是美国崩溃的加速和内部矛盾的加剧。

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