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美海軍陸戰隊前司令:中美並非必有一戰,有4個原因 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

美海軍陸戰隊前司令:中美並非必有一戰,有4個原因

美海軍陸戰隊前司令:中美並非必有一戰,有4個原因
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據環球網援引《約旦時報》此前的報導稱:在當今的國際形勢下,有越來越多的學者認為守成大國與新崛起大國之間的衝突已不可避免,中美兩國已掉進「修斯底德陷阱」,雙方必有一戰。對此,美國前海軍陸戰隊司令查爾斯·克魯拉克卻表示:中美關係絕非如此嚴峻,他給出了4點原因。

美海軍陸戰隊前司令:中美並非必有一戰,有4個原因

第一,雙方的軍事衝突會迅速演變為核戰爭,國際社會將竭力避免這種情況的發生。

第二,中國軍力雖然大幅增長,但各軍種未得到平衡發展,更加注重打造非對稱作戰武器。在艦艇、軍機等常規武器領域,未來幾十年仍不會對美國構成威脅。因此,中國並不會主動尋求與美國發生衝突。可惜五角大樓的戰略思維仍舊充滿了冷戰色彩。

美海軍陸戰隊前司令:中美並非必有一戰,有4個原因

第三,中國決策者更注重軟實力帶來的勝利成果。比如在經濟建設、應對疫情方面要比美國好很多。未來中國將繼續堅持這種和平戰略。

第四,中美經濟密不可分,中國仍是美國最大的貿易夥伴,且中國持有1萬億美國國債。

未來,中美發生間接衝突的可能性很大,但雙方直接參戰的可能性卻很小。

美海軍陸戰隊前司令:中美並非必有一戰,有4個原因

五角大樓難得出了個明白人。在今時今日,美國若一味地尋求與中國對抗,最終倒霉的只能是自己,筆者同樣列舉幾點來說明:

首先,沒有任何人能承受核戰爭的代價。核武器出現至今已將近百年,但真正參戰卻唯有一次。在過去幾十年,掌握有絕對核優勢的美國,依然大力發展常規武器,在其鞏固霸權的道路上,從未動用過核武器,無論對手是否為擁核國家。在面對中國這樣的核大國時,美國更加明白:常規戰爭進行到一定程度,必然會演變為核戰爭。以雙方的核彈頭數量,一旦放手施為,必將給地球生態帶來不可逆的毀滅性災難。彼時,美國不僅自身難保,也將成為人類公敵。這是任何一名決策者都會盡力避免的糟糕狀況。

美海軍陸戰隊前司令:中美並非必有一戰,有4個原因

其次,在常規戰場上,美國同樣占不到任何優勢。前文提到,中國正在大力發展非對稱武器。的確,為了應對潛在威脅,長期致力於防守政策的我國已研發出包括航空母艦、隱身戰鬥機、區域防空系統、反隱身雷達、東風飛彈等先進軍備,打航母、破島鏈完全不在話下。

美海軍陸戰隊前司令:中美並非必有一戰,有4個原因

再次,中國的崛起之路是謙恭的,主張和平、不尋求對抗是我們一貫堅持的外交方針。合作才能共贏,這個道理已經由中國進行了多次詮釋,同樣也得到了許多國家的認同。個別國家若一味地反其道而行,將霸權主義一條路走到黑,必然會受到反噬。

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