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澳方打錯算盤了!以為掌握主動權,隨意提價,鐵礦石暴跌自食惡果 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

澳方打錯算盤了!以為掌握主動權,隨意提價,鐵礦石暴跌自食惡果

澳方打錯算盤了!以為掌握主動權,隨意提價,鐵礦石暴跌自食惡果
5,203

最近,澳大利亞媒體對中國抑制鐵礦石價格的行為表示擔憂,而鐵礦石正是澳大利亞經濟支柱之一,對澳大利亞的經濟有不可預估的影響。

 

圖為鐵礦石

鐵礦石是澳大利亞支柱產業

現在鐵礦石的價格為130美元每噸,而在上半年一噸鐵礦石最高價格達到了230美元,這個跌幅是澳大利亞政府始料未及的。

根據澳大利亞官方統計,鐵礦石為澳大利亞的GDP增長帶來了4.9%的助力,同時採礦業一年的經濟為澳大利亞帶來了10%的GDP,足以說明鐵礦石對澳大利亞經濟的重要性。

今年的第二季度,鐵礦石還是澳大利亞的主要出口產品之一,占到了所有出口額的42%,而中國正是澳大利亞的主要出口國,八成以上的鐵礦石都被出口到中國。

圖為鐵礦石開採場

澳大利亞妄想用停供鐵礦石威脅中國

正是因為中國在澳大利亞購買了這麼多的鐵礦石,讓澳大利亞認為,自己是賣方市場,掌握了主動權,想要用鐵礦石來作為條件,來跟中國叫板。

2020年12月,澳大利亞政府宣布考慮停止向中國供應鐵礦石,這是明顯的威脅,同時,中國也對澳大利亞的很多產品進行了制裁,不過中國還是從澳大利亞進口鐵礦石,因為一時沒有特別合適的替代國,這種情況讓澳大利亞更加囂張,認為抓住了中國的命脈,在美國身前充當先鋒,跟中國唱反調。

澳大利亞的鐵礦石最高賣到了230美元一噸,可是在澳大利亞國內,開採一噸鐵礦石的成本是20美元,加上運費也就30美元,這麼高的價格,可想而知澳大利亞在鐵礦石漲價的期間究竟有多賺錢。

圖為中國鋼鐵企業

中國不懼威脅,解決辦法多

中國為了解決過於依賴澳大利亞鐵礦石的問題,用了兩個辦法,一個是增加供給量,一個是限制鋼鐵產量。

從增加供給量說起,既然沒有哪個國家能完全替代澳大利亞成為中國鐵礦石供應國,那麼,中國就找到了一種代替鐵礦石原料的產品,那就是再生鋼鐵原料,這能夠解決國內一部分對鐵礦石的需求,而同時中國還在幾個地區拿到了鐵礦石的開採權,為期25年,供給方面基本穩定了。

另一方面就是減少國內對鐵礦石的需求,在國內鐵礦石需求旺盛的情況下,中國減少了鋼鐵出口的份額,優先滿足國內的需求,因為中國是制鋼大國,全世界都在用中國的鋼鐵,沒了鋼鐵,各國基建就無法開工,而能夠提供這麼大量鋼鐵的,目前只有中國,這相當於反過來限制了美國和澳大利亞,這就叫自食惡果吧。

所以在這種形勢下,澳大利亞不得不向中國出口鐵礦石,並且價格還回落到130美元每噸,而中國出口的鋼鐵雖然漲價了,不過他們還得接著買,因為只有中國的鋼鐵是具有規模效應的,沒有哪個國家的鋼鐵產業能夠發展到這種程度,前期投入和技術工人培養都不是那麼簡單的事情。

所以澳大利亞想要用鐵礦石對中國做文章,那麼吃苦頭的只能是自己,畢竟澳大利亞的鐵礦石中國不進口,也就沒有哪個國家能接得住了,澳大利亞該醒了。

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