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奉陪到底!中國無限期叫停中澳經貿對話,澳元經歷“黑暗一小時” – 有海水的地方就有中國人

奉陪到底!中國無限期叫停中澳經貿對話,澳元經歷“黑暗一小時”

奉陪到底!中國無限期叫停中澳經貿對話,澳元經歷“黑暗一小時”
2,573

5月6日上午,中国国家发展改革委对外发布一则重磅消息,决定无限期叫停与澳大利亚相关部门共同牵头的中澳战略经济对话机制下的一切活动。国家发改委表示,近期澳方部分政客基于冷战思维和意识形态领域的偏见,不断干扰破坏中澳之间正常的经贸合作项目,严重阻碍了中澳关系的发展。

实际上,中方此前已经多次提醒,但是莫里森当局仍对此置之不理,所以中方做出此项决定完全是必要之举。在当天的外交部新闻记者会上,外交部发言人汪文斌表示,国家发改委的决定是中方必要的、正当的反应,澳方必须对此承担所有责任。

奉陪到底!中国无限期叫停中澳经贸对话,澳元经历“黑暗一小时”

据悉,中澳战略经济对话是中澳两国总理定期会晤下的重要机制,也是中澳双方加强合作与解决争议的重要平台,自2014年6月首次中澳战略经济对话举行以来,截止目前,双方共举行了三次对话。

值得注意的是,现任澳大利亚总理的莫里森,曾在2017年9月,以澳大利亚国库部长的身份,参与了第三次中澳战略经济对话,两国代表就全球经济形势、经济改革以及中澳双向投资的机遇与挑战等问题,进行了深入探讨。

奉陪到底!中国无限期叫停中澳经贸对话,澳元经历“黑暗一小时”

虽然中澳战略经济对话只进行了三次,但是其发挥的作用却非常大。例如签署于2015年6月的中澳自由贸易协定,便是第一次中澳战略经济对话的重要产物,该协定也为近年来中澳贸易额高速增长,奠定了坚实的基础。

此次中方叫停中澳战略经济对话机制下的一切活动,对中澳贸易大局来说,无疑是一次重大的打击。不过这一切都是澳大利亚咎由自取的结果,上月21日,澳大利亚以“国家安全”为借口,单方面撕毁中方与澳大利亚维多利亚州达成的一系列合作协议。

奉陪到底!中国无限期叫停中澳经贸对话,澳元经历“黑暗一小时”

而且莫里森当局目前还没有收手的迹象,据英国媒体《卫报》报道,近期澳方部分政客又在向莫里森施压,要求中止西澳大利亚州在2011年同中方签署的战略合作协议。去年年末澳大利亚官方通过了新的外交法案,该方案赋予联邦政府更多的权利,莫里森当局有权根据国家战略需要,取消地方政府与其他国家达成的合作协议。

澳大利亚无视中方警告,倒行逆施,如今尝到了苦果。据美国媒体报道,在中方宣布叫停中澳战略经济对话机制下的一切活动之后,澳元应声贬值,在当天经历了“黑暗一小时”,澳元兑美元的汇率一度下跌0.6%,受此影响,澳大利亚股市S&P/ASX 200指数也下跌0.8%。

奉陪到底!中国无限期叫停中澳经贸对话,澳元经历“黑暗一小时”

市场策略师普遍认为,澳元汇率下跌绝非短期现象,随着中方此项决定后续影响逐渐扩大,澳元极有可能进入一个漫长的下跌通道。虽然本国货币贬值,对出口具有一定的刺激作用,但是进一步贬值,极易引发系统性的金融风险,危及一个国家的金融安全。

澳大利亚格里菲斯大学亚洲研究所的凯特琳-伯恩教授,在接受澳大利亚广播公司的采访时表示,中方的决定是中澳关系进一步恶化的迹象,现在中澳关系虽然处于低谷,但还不是最危险的时候,未来澳大利亚的处境或许会更加糟糕。

奉陪到底!中国无限期叫停中澳经贸对话,澳元经历“黑暗一小时”

在澳元汇率下跌,社会各界表达担忧之后,澳大利亚贸易部长丹-特汉紧急发声称,莫里森当局对中澳举行部长级对话和接触依旧持开放态度。不过丹-特汉的声明于事无补,目前大多数澳大利亚政客对中澳关系不抱希望,例如澳大利亚联邦反对党领袖艾博年宣称,虽然中方的决定令人遗憾,但是也凸显了澳大利亚与地区其他国家建立关系的必要性。

虽然在外交层面,澳大利亚政客或许可以找到令他们满意的交往对象,比如印度;但是在经贸领域,中国在澳大利亚经济发展中扮演的角色是不可替代的。自2015年12月,中澳自贸协定生效以来,两国贸易总额不断增长。

奉陪到底!中国无限期叫停中澳经贸对话,澳元经历“黑暗一小时”

例如澳大利亚对华出口额从2015年的约750亿美元增长至2019年的超1500亿美元。中国已经连续多年成为澳大利亚第一大贸易伙伴、第一大出口目的地和第一大进口来源地。随着澳大利亚企业在中国市场上的持续投入,中国已经成为澳洲商品离不开的市场。

去年中澳关系受损之后,中方出台了一系列限制或者禁止澳洲商品对华出口的措施,让澳洲企业蒙受了巨大的损失,此举算是给莫里森当局的一次警示。但是澳方对此并不领情,中国人讲究先礼后兵,既然澳方执意一条道走到黑,中方只能奉陪到底。

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