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¹æºï¼Œè¯´æ˜¯å‘挥ç»æµŽã€å†›äº‹åŠ›é‡ç»´æŠ¤é©¬åˆ—主义信仰。 光看这个表述，好åƒæ²¡ä»€ä¹ˆé—®é¢˜ã€‚åªä¸è¿‡ï¼ŒåŽç››é¡¿åœ¨é˜è¿°æ—¶ç”¨ä¸Š“霸惔“æžç«¯”之类的è¯æ±‡ï¼Œå¯¹æˆ‘们的批评æ€åº¦ä¸€å¦‚既往。 在第四部分渲染所谓“ä¸å›½çš„脆弱性”之åŽï¼ŒæŠ¥å‘Šæœ€åŽåˆç»†ç»†ç½—列美国为“ç¡®ä¿è‡ªç”±”需è¦å®Œæˆçš„å项任务。 å项任务ä¸æ到“ä¸å›½”的有三项：“让美国人民了解ä¸å›½å¸¦æ¥çš„挑战”“让政府人员了解美ä¸çš„竞争”“在适当领域与ä¸å›½åˆä½œï¼ŒåŒæ—¶ä¸€äº›é¢†åŸŸå制ä¸å›½”。 相比之下，å¦å¤–七项任务我们å¬è¯´è¿‡å¾ˆå¤šæ¬¡äº†ï¼Œæ¯”如è¦åŠ 强国际秩åºã€ç»´æŒæœ€å¼ºå†›åŠ›ã€æŽ¨å¹¿æ°‘主人æƒã€æ”¹é©ç¾Žå›½å›½å†…教育体系ç‰ç‰ã€‚ 大家看看，这份报告å¯çœŸæ˜¯ä¸º“美利åšçš„å†æ¬¡å¼ºå¤§”æ“碎了心，其ä¸ä¸å¿˜å¤¹å¸¦æ‰¹è¯„ä¸å›½çš„ç§è´§ã€‚ 其实，æžæ˜Žç™½æŠ¥å‘Šçš„出å“方，就知é“它为什么这么针对ä¸å›½äº†ã€‚ 简å•è¯´ï¼Œç¾Žå›½åŠ¡é™¢æ”¿ç–规划办公室就是国务å¿çš„智囊团。现任国务å¿æ˜¯è°ï¼Œå¯¹ä¸å›½åˆæ˜¯ä»€ä¹ˆæ€åº¦ï¼Œè¿˜ç”¨è¯´å—？ 当然，这个政ç–规划办公室的历å²ï¼Œè¿˜æ˜¯å¤§æœ‰æ¥å¤´çš„。1947年，美国外交官乔治•å‡¯å—应时任国务å¿ä¹”æ²»•é©¬æ‡å°”çš„è¦æ±‚，建立了这个办公室，åˆè¡·å°±æ˜¯ä¸ºäº†ç»™ç¾Žå›½å›½åŠ¡å¿å»ºè¨€çŒ®ç–。 它完æˆçš„第一件大事，就是规划大å鼎鼎的“马æ‡å°”计划”。 大家知é“，马æ‡å°”计划虽然打瀓帮助欧洲å¤å…´”æ——å·ï¼Œå®žé™…上也是在欧洲方å‘é制冷战对手è‹è”的工具。 美国务院政ç–规划办公室的现任主任是彼得•ä¼¯ç§‘维茨。他也是很拼，10月底的消æ¯æ˜¾ç¤ºï¼Œä»–在访欧回国åŽå³è¢«ç¡®è¯Šæ„ŸæŸ“æ–°å† ç—…æ¯’ã€‚ 办公室æˆå‘˜é‡Œè¿˜æœ‰ä¸€ä¸ªç†Ÿæ‚‰çš„åå—：余茂春。 这个一肚ååæ°´çš„æžç«¯ååŽæ´¾ï¼Œå·ç§°è“¬ä½©å¥¥çš„“头å·å¯¹åŽæ”¿ç–智囊”。当å‰ç¾Žå›½æ”¿åºœå‡ºå°çš„ä¸å°‘ååŽæ”¿ç–，æ®è¯´èƒŒåŽå‡ 乎都有他的影å。 由余茂春之æµç‚®åˆ¶çš„对åŽæŠ¥å‘Šèƒ½æ˜¯ä»€ä¹ˆæ ·ï¼Ÿç”¨è„šè¶¾å¤´æƒ³éƒ½èƒ½çŸ¥é“。 02 美国媒体Axios将美国务院的这份报告，称为“凯å—弔报告。 乔治•å‡¯å—被一些人æˆä¸ºç¾Žå›½å†·æˆ˜åˆæœŸå¯¹è‹“é制战略” çš„ç¼”é€ è€…å’Œè®¾è®¡å¸ˆã€‚1946å¹´2月，他从莫斯科å‘出那å°è‘—åçš„8000å—长电报，为美国对è‹æ”¿ç–指明方å‘。1947年，他åˆå‘表《è‹è”çš„è¡Œä¸ºæ ¹æºã€‹ï¼Œè®ºè¯ä¸ºä½•ç¾Žå›½å¿…须在一些有战略æ„义的é‡è¦é¢†åŸŸé制è‹è”。 那么åŠä¸ªå¤šä¸–纪åŽï¼Œç¾Žå›½åŠ¡é™¢å‘布的这份报告真åƒåª’ä½“è¯´çš„é‚£æ ·ï¼Œæ˜¯ä¹”æ²»•å‡¯å—“长电报”的翻版å—？它会åƒå½“å¹´é‚£å°8000嗓长电报”ä¸€æ ·ï¼Œä¸ºçŽ°ä»»ç”šè‡³ä¸‹å±Šç¾Žå›½æ”¿åºœ“指明”对åŽæ”¿ç–æ–¹å‘å—？ 有美国问题å¦è€…认为，二者确实有相似之处。 从目的æ¥çœ‹ï¼Œå®ƒä»¬éƒ½æƒ³åœ¨æ”¿åºœå†…部构建对è‹æˆ–对åŽå…±è¯†ã€‚1946年，当时美国政府内部对è‹æ”¿ç–å˜åœ¨åˆ†æ§ï¼Œç¤¾ä¼šèˆ†è®ºå±‚é¢å¯¹è‹çœ‹æ³•ä¹Ÿæ²¡ç»Ÿä¸€ã€‚在当时的美国政界看æ¥ï¼Œèµ·ç 有一部分人认为è‹è”ä»æ˜¯å¯ä»¥åˆä½œçš„盟å‹å’Œä¼™ä¼´ï¼Œè€Œå‡¯å—è¿™ç¯‡æ–‡ç« åœ¨è¿™ä¸ªè¿‡ç¨‹ä¸èµ·åˆ°äº†æ¶ˆé™¤åˆ†æ§çš„é‡å¤§ä½œç”¨ã€‚ å¦‚ä»Šï¼Œç¾Žå›½åŠ¡é™¢çš„æŠ¥å‘Šä¹Ÿåœ¨è¯•å›¾æƒ³è¾¾åˆ°è¿™ä¸ªç›®æ ‡ï¼šè¿›ä¸€æ¥å¼ºåŒ–美国内部对åŽæ”¿ç–共识，å‘ç€å®ƒè‡ªå·±çš„ä¸»å¼ æ–¹å‘看é½ã€‚ 从内容上看，两份报告的æ€è·¯éƒ½æ˜¯æƒ³é€šè¿‡è®ºè¿°è‹è”或ä¸å›½å¯¹ç¾Žå›½çš„ä¸å¦¥å和强硬，æ¥è®ºè¯ç¾Žå›½æ–½ä»¥é制的æ£å½“性。 æ¢å¥è¯è¯´ï¼Œç¾Žå›½æ˜¯è¢«“对手”é€¼çš„ï¼Œå®žå±žæ— å¥ˆã€‚å…·ä½“åˆ°ä¸å›½ï¼Œå®žé™…就是在说：ä¸æ˜¯æˆ‘们美国ä¸æƒ³è·Ÿä¸å›½å¥½ï¼Œè€Œæ˜¯ä¸å›½ä¸æƒ³è·Ÿç¾Žå›½å¥½ã€‚ 既然如æ¤ï¼Œè¿™ä»½æŠ¥å‘Šå°±çœŸå¯ä»¥ç§°å¾—上新“凯å—报告”了？ 也有å¦è€…认为，这ç§çœ‹æ³•æœ‰ç‚¹æ“之过急。 凯å—çš„é•¿ç”µæŠ¥å’Œæ–‡ç« è™½ç„¶åŠ©æŽ¨ç”šè‡³é”šå®šäº†å¯¹è‹å†·æˆ˜ï¼Œä½†è‡³å°‘还是基于现实主义视角对当时è‹è”状况进行了一些深刻分æžã€‚而现在美国务院这份报告呢？里é¢åŸºæœ¬å°±æ˜¯è“¬ä½©å¥¥å’Œå…¶ä»–美国ååŽæ”¿å®¢å¯¹åŽæ”»å‡»çš„大æ‚烩，没有多少新è¯ã€‚ 两份报告的起è‰ç”¨æ„也完全ä¸åŒã€‚当年，凯å—曾为电文的罕è§é•¿åº¦ä½œå‡ºè§£é‡Šï¼š 当时美国å„部门关于è‹è”的问题，涉åŠå分å¤æ‚ã€ç²¾ç»†ã€è·Ÿï¼Œè·Ÿç¾Žæ–¹æƒ¯ç”¨æ€ç»´æ ¼æ ¼ä¸å…¥çš„部分，åŒæ—¶å¯¹å½“时国际环境的分æžä¹Ÿå¾ˆé‡è¦ã€‚ 而如今美国务院的报告，明显是为巩固对åŽæžç«¯è·¯çº¿ã€‚报告åªæ˜¯æ³›æ³›åœ°ä»Žæ„识形æ€è§’度抹黑攻击ä¸å›½ï¼Œæ˜¯ä¸ºæ„识形æ€è€Œæ„识形æ€ã€‚ 而这æ£æ˜¯å‡¯å—一直å对的“简å•åŒ–”处ç†å›½å®¶å¯¹å¤–政ç–。 03 读罢报告，美媒Axiosçš„ä¸å›½é—®é¢˜è®°è€…è´ä¹¦é¢–（Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian）显得有点摸ä¸ç€å¤´è„‘。 è¿™ä½å¥³è®°è€…æ—©å¹´ç•™å¦ä¸å›½å¹¶æ›¾ä¾›èŒäºŽç¾Žå›½ã€Šå¤–交政ç–》æ‚å¿—ï¼Œæœ€è¿‘å‡ å¹´ä»¥åœ¨è¥¿æ–¹åª’ä½“ä¸Šå˜ç€èŠ±æ ·æŠ¹é»‘ä¸å›½è‘—称。她在报é“ä¸è¯•ç€è§£è¯»ç¾Žå›½åŠ¡é™¢“抗ä¸æŠ¥å‘Š”å—里行间的æ„æ€ã€‚ 抹黑和攻击ä¸å›½ï¼Œè‚¯å®šæ˜¯æ¯«æ— 疑问的了，但……ä¸å¯¹å•Šï¼æ€Žä¹ˆç¾Žå›½å¿…须完æˆçš„å项任务，基本没展现出特朗普政府外交ä¸æ ‡å¿—性的å•è¾¹ä¸»ä¹‰å‘¢ï¼ 一家德媒在转述è´ä¹¦é¢–å’ŒAxios的报é“时甚至说，这份报告实际是在“å对”特朗普时期推崇的å•è¾¹ä¸»ä¹‰å’Œå¤ç«‹æ”¿ç–。 那么问题æ¥äº†ï¼šç¾Žå›½åŠ¡é™¢çŽ°åœ¨ä»åœ¨è“¬ä½©å¥¥æŽŒæŽ§ä¹‹ä¸ï¼Œéš¾é“大统领还没å¸ä»»ï¼Œå°±å¼€å§‹é€ å倒戈了？ 事实æ°æ°ç›¸å。 一ä½ç¾Žå›½é—®é¢˜å¦è€…认为，这份报告背åŽå…¶å®žè—ç€ç‰¹æœ—普团队包括美国务院的ä¸å°‘心机。 首先是å‘布时机。为何任期åªå‰©ä¸¤ä¸ªæœˆäº†è¿˜æžè¿™ä¸ªåŠ¨ä½œï¼Ÿ 美国务院一ä½é«˜çº§å®˜å‘˜å£°ç§°ï¼ŒæŠ¥å‘Šæ—©å†™å¥½äº†ï¼Œåªä¸è¿‡éœ€è¦èµ°å†…部程åºï¼Œæ£å¥½èµ¶ä¸Šè¿™ä¸ªæ—¶å€™å‘表。他还特别解释，“并ä¸æ˜¯åƒæŸäº›äººçŒœæµ‹çš„é‚£æ ·ï¼Œè¦ä¸ºä¸‹å±Šæ”¿åºœå¯¹åŽæ”¿ç–定调”。 但他越是强调，越有æ¤åœ°æ— 银三百两的感觉。 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2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00e2–\u00b2\u00e6\u00be\u00b3\u00e5\u00a4\u00a7\u00e5ˆ\u00a9\u00e4\u00baš\u00e6ˆ˜\u00e7•\u00a5\u00e6”\u00bf\u00e7\u00ad–\u00e7\u00a0”\u00e7\u00a9\u00b6\u00e6‰€\u00ef\u00bcˆ\u00e5›\u00be\u00e6\u00ba\u00ef\u00bcš\u00e6–\u00b0\u00e5Ž\u00e7\u00a4\u00be\u00ef\u00bc‰\u00e4\u00b8\u00ad\u00e6\u00be\u00b3\u00e5…\u00b3\u00e7\u00b3\u00bb\u00e4\u00b8\u00e6–\u00ad\u00e8\u00b5\u00b0\u00e4\u00bdŽ\u00e4\u00b9‹\u00e9™…\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e4\u00b8€\u00e5\u00ae\u00b6\u00e5\u00e4\u00b8\u00ba\u201c\u00e6\u00be\u00b3\u00e5\u00a4\u00a7\u00e5ˆ\u00a9\u00e4\u00baš\u00e6ˆ˜\u00e7•\u00a5\u00e6”\u00bf\u00e7\u00ad–\u00e7\u00a0”\u00e7\u00a9\u00b6\u00e6‰€\u201d\u00ef\u00bcˆAustralian Strategic Policy 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