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2,548 原标题：彭博社专家预测：中国2035年将超美成最大经济体 　　参考消息网11月14日报道 美国《彭博商业周刊》网站11月12日刊发题为《经济学家解读2050年的世界》的文章，作者为彭博社经济部首席经济学家汤姆·å¥¥å°”利克和彭博社经济部经济学家比约恩·èŒƒé²ç“¦è€¶ã€‚文章称，中国2035年将超过美国成世界最大经济体。中国的崛起不过是已然开始并将在今后几十年加速的一个更宏大转变的组成部分。全文摘编如下： 　　1972年，冷战逻辑促使美国时任总统尼克松不可思议地与中国结成了联盟，让中国重回世界经济的主流。1991年，苏联解体助长了狂妄的“历史终结论”，导致西方对中国崛起视而不见。 　　时间快进到2020年，中国已崛起为全球主要强国。彭博社经济部预测，到2035年，中国将超过美国成为世界最大的经济体，或许也将成为世界最强大的政治角色。 　　中国的崛起不过是已然开始并将在今后几十年加速的一个更宏大转变的组成部分。 　　彭博社经济部利用一个增长核算框架——把劳动力、资本和生产率所做贡献加在一起——预测了从美国到加纳的39国从现在起一直到2050年的潜在国内生产总值（GDP）。我们利用这些数据绘制出了世界经济将发生的一些重大地理和政治变化的图景。 　　结果表明，从二战结束到21世纪初的引人注目的稳定期即将结束。经济重心正在从西方转向东方，从发达经济体转向新兴市场，从自由市场转向国家控制。这种转变已经在颠覆全球政治、经济和市场。这还只是开端。 　　亚洲正重返全球经济舞台的中心。在世纪之交，中国尚未加入世界贸易组织，印度的潜力被许可证制度埋没，当时亚洲只占全球产出的区区25%，远低于北美和欧洲。亚洲的人口目前已占全球的一半以上，到2050年，亚洲也将贡献世界经济产出的一半以上。北美和欧洲将节节败退。 　　主要受中国和印度崛起的推动，新兴市场在全球GDP中所占份额也在飚升。2000年，新兴市场占全球产出的约五分之一。2042年，新兴市场将超过发达经济体成为全球GDP的最大贡献者；到2050年，它们将贡献全球GDPçš„60%左右。 　　让人感受更深的将是国家之间相对力量的转移。据我们预测，2033年，印度将超过日本成为世界第三大经济体。2035年，中国将超过美国成为世界最大经济体。到2050年，印度尼西亚或许会跻身前列。世界大型经济体中将有3个是亚洲新兴市场国家。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/xa3s6jFRS3-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C416&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":47483,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/11\/06\/%e7%be%8e%e5%b0%88%e5%ae%b6%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e5%88%b02100%e5%b9%b4%e5%b0%87%e6%88%90%e6%9c%80%e5%a4%a7%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e9%ab%94%ef%bc%8c%e5%8d%b0%e5%ba%a6%e7%ac%ac\/","url_meta":{"origin":8420,"position":0},"title":"\u7f8e\u5c08\u5bb6\u9810\u6e2c\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u52302100\u5e74\u5c07\u6210\u6700\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7b2c\u4e09","date":"November 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