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2,515 成为发达国家可以说是世界各国发展的目标和努力的方向了，毕竟有哪个国家不想过上好日子呢！不过，发达国家的门槛不是一般的高，目前在全球200多个国家和地区中，获得广泛认可的发达国家只有二三十个！美国、日本、英国、法国、德国等大家耳熟能详的国家都是发达国家。而发展中国家则占据了全球80%以上，其中，我国就是全球最大的发展中国家。说到这，想必大家最关注的还是：中国有望什么时候成为发达国家？ 这里先了解下，发达国家的标准是什么？其实，最简单的衡量标准就是人均GDP，通常以2万美元作为分界线，除此之外，还有工业化水平、科技水平等衡量指标。也就是说，单纯的有钱是不够的。比如沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔等中东产油国富得流油，人均GDP早已超过2万美元，但它们都不算发达国家，这是因为它们依靠出口石油等资源获得了较高的人均GDP，而本身产业结构比较单一，工业化水平低。以沙特为例，该国石油收入就占据了财政收入的70%以上，贡献了超40%çš„GDP，石油产业对沙特经济发展的影响之大可想而知了。 那么，中国有望什么时候成为发达国家？首先，最关键的还是在于人均GDP是否能达到2万美元这个分界线。根据国家统计局数据，2019年我国人均GDP为10276美元。这也就意味着，中国需要保持稳定的增长，人均GDP再翻一翻才能进入发达国家的讨论门槛。 在此之前，中国还不得不面对一个坎——中等收入陷阱。 这是一个经济社会现象，国际上普遍认为，人均GDP达到1万美元之后是一个魔障，在这个数字面前，大多数发展中国家都败下阵来。据世界银行的一项调查显示，从1960年到2008年间，全球101个中等收入国家和地区中，只有韩国、日本等13个成功发展为高收入经济体。而其他大多数国家都陷入了经济增长缓慢的困境。这是为什么呢？分析来看： 经济结构过于单一是原因之一。比如巴西，其经济发展对大宗商品过度依赖。数据显示，巴西大宗商品的出口占到了总出口额的50%左右。更悲哀的是，巴西还走上了主动”去工业化”的道路，到2017年，巴西工业在GDP中比重已经下降到21%。可以说，是巴西自废武功，坐拥丰富的资源，却将一副好牌打成烂牌。 而缺少技术创新又是另一个重要原因。比如马来西亚，在步入中等收入国家行列后，其人力资本、土地资源等低成本优势会逐步丧失，因此在低端市场难以与低等收入国家竞争。而在中高端市场由于缺少技术创新，又难以与高等收入国家抗衡，所以经济发展一直停留在原有水平。 与巴西、马来西亚等国不同，中国不存在产业结构单一的问题，实际上，中国是世界上唯一一个建立全产业链的国家。另外，我国对技术创新也是十分重视的，2019年，中国研发支出就高达2.17万亿元，位居世界第二；而创新指数排名世界第14，高于不少发达国家。 可以说，中国有能力迈过中等收入陷阱。按照世界银行2019年的标准，高收入国家的门槛是12536美元，我国人均GDP已站上万美元台阶，有分析指出，下一个五年计划，中国就可以成为高收入国家行列。 说到这，就不难看出，如果中国跨过中等收入陷阱，成为发达国家最大阻碍就在于人均GDP是否能达到发达国家门槛。因为从前面的分析来看，工业化水平、科技水平等发达国家的衡量指标，可以说中国都不差。 经过几十年的发展，中国积累了强大的规模优势，什么高大上的产品，什么价值连城的专利，只要被我们吃透了，就能迅速做成白菜价，让发达国家再也无法收智商税，所以中国就有了“发达国家粉碎机”这一称号。这也就不难理解为什么美国总说我们是发达国家，目的不过是要“使用一切手段”剥夺中国在WTO享有的发展中国家的特殊与差别待遇及最惠国待遇等，而且近年来还对中国发动科技摩擦，大肆打压华为等中国科技企业。 不过，不管美国如何围堵打压，恐怕也不会遏制中国的发展势头。本月初官方发布的《建议》提到，到2035年，中国人均GDP将达到中等发达国家水平。对此，日媒甚至将“中国力争2035年成中等发达国家”作为头条要闻推送。 基于此，对于中国有望什么时候成为发达国家，想必大家心中有数了。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8343,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/\u672a\u547d\u540d_\u526f\u672c-783_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":34307,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/12\/05\/%e5%8d%b0%e5%ba%a6%e9%80%99%e5%9b%9e%e4%b8%8d%e8%a3%9d%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81%e9%96%8b%e5%8f%a3%e5%90%91%e8%a5%bf%e6%96%b9%e7%b4%a2%e8%a6%81%e4%b8%80%e8%90%ac%e5%84%84%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e6%9c%89\/","url_meta":{"origin":8342,"position":0},"title":"\u5370\u5ea6\u9019\u56de\u4e0d\u88dd\u4e86\uff01\u958b\u53e3\u5411\u897f\u65b9\u7d22\u8981\u4e00\u842c\u5104\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u6709\u671b\u5206\u4e00\u676f\u7fb9","date":"December 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