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2,336 李家成 é¼å¯§å¤§å­¸åœ‹éš›é—œä¿‚學院副教授、察哈爾學會研究員 選情異常焦灼的美國總統大選似乎“æ‹œ”局已定。這場大選吸引了世界各國的目光，韓國作為美國的盟國自是熱切關注。四年前，特朗普意外勝出，日本搶在韓國前面與特朗普通電話、會晤，讓韓國心裏憋着一股氣，意在此次試比高。然而，由於眾多的郵寄選票尚未點數完畢，個別關鍵的戰場州可能重新計票，特朗普不承認大選失敗，在媒體宣佈拜登勝選後，韓國總統文在寅只是在推特上謹慎發文祝賀拜登，未使用“當選”措辭。文在寅可能不會在特朗普承認敗選之前與拜登進行正式的首腦互動，如發送賀電、通電話等。 拜登擔任參議院外交委員會主席12年，副總統8年，是一位資歷頗深的政壇名宿和傳統政客。拜登的當選，對韓國來説，是一把機遇與風險並存的“雙刃劍”。 拜登將繼承特朗普政府奉行的對華及對亞洲政策即印太戰略的大基調。拜登宣稱反對特朗普的“美國優先主義”外交，更重視“與盟國合作”，並與盟友開展合作外交，強化同盟關係，強調恢復基於價值的同盟。在拜登看來，美韓同盟不僅是戰略同盟，更是價值觀同盟，美韓同盟強大，美韓兩國的紐帶堅固。 拜登的這一思維從他10月30日在韓聯社發表的署名文章《走向更加美好未來的希望》中再次得到確認：“作為總統，我不會以撤回駐韓美軍的魯莽威脅來勒索或敲詐韓國，而會加強我們的同盟，與韓國站在一起，以便在東亞和更大的地區維護和平。我將參與立足於原則的外交，繼續向無核化的朝鮮和統一的半島邁進。”不難看出，拜登在防衞費分擔談判、戰時作戰指揮權移交等方面很可能比特朗普更尊重韓國立場，將進一步加強韓美同盟關係。 韓國看準了拜登“以同盟為中心的對外政策這一點，正在努力將防衞費分擔談判從特朗普任期拖入拜登任期，避免刺激特朗普做出過激反應。而特朗普受到選舉連任失敗的打擊不免心灰意冷、態度消極，不再努力推動防衞費分擔談判。預計，韓國會順利闖關。韓美防衞費分擔談判有望在拜登任期合理談妥，韓美關係在其他領域也存在更多加分因素，其中包括文在寅當天提出的韓美在碳平衡和應對氣候變化等政策領域的合作。韓美關係也將更為穩定。 拜登勝選之於韓國關切的美朝關係來説，則是烏雲蔽日。鑑於拜登更傾向基於原則的工作談判，積累小成果地“自下而上”式外交，美方今後在朝核問題上或不再維持特朗普的“自上而下”模式。特金二人積累的深厚私誼將隨着特朗普的離任而不再發揮作用。拜登去年出席民主黨大選候選人電視辯論時就特朗普的對朝政策表示強烈不滿，朝美新加坡協議等特朗普政府在朝核問題上取得的成果恐將重回原點。拜登謹慎的對朝外交模式或使朝美磋商難上加難。 為此，韓國總統文在寅9日在幕僚會議上提出“半島和平新構想”，將與美國新當選總統拜登及主要人士開展多方面的溝通，期待與新一屆美國政府凝聚智慧，在韓美現有合作成果基礎上再創新成就。韓國政府將與美國新一屆政府進一步鞏固韓美同盟，除了韓美保持密切協作外，也希望韓朝作為半島問題的當事方發揮更重要的作用。美國民主黨政府和韓國民主黨政府有着密切協作推動半島和平進程的經驗，希望能形成謀求韓朝關係發展新機遇和新解法的環境。（責任編輯：王鑫）<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8214,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/dJMjgVuDaL-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C416&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":8496,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/11\/16\/%e9%a6%96%e7%a8%b1%e6%8b%9c%e7%99%bb%e7%8d%b2%e5%8b%9d%e5%be%8c%ef%bc%8c%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e8%b6%95%e7%b7%8a%e6%94%b9%e5%8f%a3%ef%bc%9a%e6%88%91%e4%bb%80%e9%ba%bd%e9%83%bd\/","url_meta":{"origin":8213,"position":0},"title":"\u9996\u7a31\u62dc\u767b\u201c\u7372\u52dd\u201d\u5f8c\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8d95\u7dca\u6539\u53e3\uff1a\u6211\u4ec0\u9ebd\u90fd\u4e0d\u627f\u8a8d\uff01\u6211\u6703\u8d0f","date":"November 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