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2,764 截至11月9日，已持续近一周的美国2020年大选仍有几个州没有完成计票，但美国媒体已经宣布民主党总统候选人拜登“当选”，拜登发表了获胜演讲，多国领导人也先后向其表示祝贺。今年的选举，美国的投票率高得惊人，现任总统特朗普与拜登的对决也经历了持续多日的胶着。“特朗普为何输掉选举”，全世界都在分析，因为票数的背后是美国社会的深刻变化，这种变化将影响到未来四年华盛顿的内政外交。“从失去共和党大佬的支持到被“铁锈地带”抛弃，从防疫暴露出的“软肋”再到少数族裔的担忧，都被视为原因的一部分。不过，对胜选者而言，在已经撕裂的美国，想做“所有美国人的总统”绝非易事。 “铁锈地带”为何倒戈？ 特朗普失利，“铁锈地带”（美国东北、中西和五大湖地区的传统工业区）的“倒戈”可以说起到至关重要的作用。2016年，特朗普正是由于拿下威斯康星州、密歇根州等“铁锈地带”的重要摇摆州，才得以击败民主党候选人希拉里。为什么仅仅过了4年，“铁锈地带”就抛弃了特朗普？在长达近百年的时间内，“铁锈地带”的钢铁、煤炭和汽车工业工人是美国中产家庭的象征，也是“美国梦”的代名词。然而，《环球时报》记者近几年多次前往匹兹堡、费城等“铁锈地带”重要城市，看到的却是一片衰败场景，有的城市一到晚上六七点钟，大街上基本上就没有什么人了。 特朗普上台后和一些共和党政客不反思“铁锈地带”衰败的深层次问题，却将其归咎到中国、日本等国头上，称“亚洲国家偷取了美国大量制造业岗位”，并开始宣布对美国进口的钢铁、铝等产品加征关税，试图以此恢复美国钢铁产业和汽车业的竞争力。特朗普还强迫别国政府或企业来“铁锈地带”投资建厂，但几年下来，这些措施并没有给当地经济带来太大改观。据美媒报道，2019年俄亥俄州和密歇根州共裁员8600人，宾夕法尼亚州也少了9100个制造业工人岗位，多家曾支持特朗普2016年大选的能源公司、钢铁公司最近两年也宣告破产。“铁锈地带”的选民因此抛弃特朗普也就不足为奇了。 “为什么特朗普失去部分白人支持？”俄罗斯《报纸报》刊文称，原因是特朗普应对疫情的举措不力，让他们失去工作。选前的民调显示，共和党候选人似乎在佐治亚州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州的白人和年长选民中失去支持。莫斯科国立大学罗斯福美国研究基金会负责人尤里·ç½—古列夫等学者表示，特朗普的核心选民是中西部的白人工人，但他并没有履行其竞选的主要诺言之一——保护工人的权利。 俄科学院美国和加拿大研究所所长瓦列里·åŠ å°”布佐夫认为：“特朗普对中国发动贸易战，并在语言上支持将制造业重新带回美国，但这一政策完全失败了。总的来说，特朗普的政策是继续为美国人口中最富有人群的利益服务，为了华尔街的利益，他为富人减税，奉行放松管制政策，实际上，他对工人阶级的支持有限。因此，工人阶级对特朗普感到失望，让其失去这部分选民的支持。” 众所周知，共和党中有很多有声望的人和特朗普的关系不好，比如布什家族和罗姆尼等人，这些都是台面上明显的例子。共和党中不满特朗普的人还通过“林肯计划”专门收集他的失误或失策的地方，做成宣传材料来抨击他，这些都影响到中间派选民的投票。 2018å¹´8月去世的共和党籍联邦参议员麦凯恩2016年曾支持过反建制的特朗普，但最终还是和“丑闻缠身”的特朗普决裂。麦凯恩生前曾要求不让特朗普参加他的葬礼，而未受邀出席的特朗普当天去打高尔夫消遣。麦凯恩家族在亚利桑那州影响力很大，2016年特朗普赢下这个州，但2020年失去了它。 ä¿„ç½—æ–¯infox网7日报道说，美国副总统彭斯得到许多有影响力的白人福音派组织的支持，但这些组织并不喜欢特朗普，一些人还将特朗普视为“骗子”。这样的分歧也导致特朗普的选票减少。更重要的是，共和党内部不和导致特朗普失去部分基本选民的支持。另外，他经常发表挑衅性的推文，对一些媒体进行攻击，煽动种族主义话题等，都引起美国舆论和社会的不满。特朗普上任后大幅削减联邦科研经费投入，也引起教育界的不满。 “不太可能的联盟” ä¿„ç½—æ–¯vtimes网在题为“特朗普为什么会失败”的文章中称，疫情彻底暴露了特朗普政府的专业能力，并将美国人的注意力集中在与健康相关的问题上，而这正是特朗普的“软肋”。《华盛顿邮报》今年5月刊发题为“尽管疫情严重，特朗普总统依然发誓要彻底终结奥巴马的医改法案”的文章，对特朗普的固执己见感到担忧。俄高级经济学院教授阿列克谢·é©¬å¡å°”金称，很多美国公民无法原谅他应对新冠肺炎疫情的举措。 有民调显示，美国非洲裔、拉美裔、亚裔选拜登的比例远远超过特朗普。《纽约时报》认为，由女性、有色人种、老年和年轻选民，以及一小部分对特朗普不满的共和党人组成的“不太可能的联盟”，让拜登赢得胜利。美国政治评论员范·ç¼æ–¯8日在CNN新闻节目现场听到拜登胜选的消息后，激动得泣不成声，他表示：“如果你是穆斯林，就不用担心总统不允许你继续待在这个国家；如果你是移民，你就不用担心总统会乐于把自己的孩子夺走；来美国追梦的人不用再担心被无故遣返。” 在美国首都华盛顿工作和居住的华裔越先生选前预测拜登将赢得大选，他告诉《环球时报》记者：“我所在社区大多数选民是民主党的支持者，他们不可能选特朗普。但我也知道一位原本支持共和党的白人朋友，是受过高等教育的中产，他今年没有投票给特朗普的最主要原因就是不满其防疫失败，以及在这个过程中暴露出来的科学素养和人格问题。戴口罩这么简单的一个事情，特朗普都把它政治化，一再对抗这个科学认识。这在很多尊重科学家和医学专家的美国人眼里，既愚蠢又危险。但特朗普竟警告美国选民，‘不要选拜登，因为拜登当选会听科学家的’，这非常不合逻辑，疫情面前，不听科学家的听谁的？” 越先生告诉《环球时报》记者，据他所知，2016年很多支持特朗普的华裔选民都通过微信相互“通气”，但具有讽刺意味的是，特朗普今年威胁封禁微信、关闭TikTok等做法让他们很不爽，也给大家带来很多不便。越先生说，特朗普打着“维护国家安全”的幌子做这些事，但实际上既不符合常识也不符合宪法，因为每一个行政命令必须把它对民众的干扰降到最低限度，而且需要证明这个干扰是有必要的。很多华人和其他亚裔也不满特朗普三番五次地把抗疫不力的问题“甩锅”中国的做法，此举让很多亚裔受到种族主义分子的攻击，因此也不再支持他。今年9月公布的“亚裔群体投票倾向”民调结果显示，亚裔选民2020年的政治参与热情达到史无前例的高点，其中54%的亚裔选民表示会选拜登，30%的人表示倾向于特朗普继续领导国家。 据CNN报道，今年有3200万拉丁裔美国人登记投票，是美国参与投票的最大少数族裔群体。《纽约时报》分析，特朗普比2016年获得更多拉丁裔支持者的原因在于这部分选民更加关注自身就业和经济状况，他们渴望接近白人，支持特朗普修隔离墙以防止更多中美洲的棕色移民的入侵。但今年的情况有所不同。拉丁裔群体中反对特朗普的大多数人来自墨西哥，他们中只有23%选择支持共和党。他们因为受到民主党包容性移民政策的吸引，投票给拜登，以期更易获得医疗保障和改善住房条件。美国移民委员会执行董事贝丝·æ²ƒæž—表示，在（忍受）了特朗普4å¹´“绝对反移民和种族主义暴行”后，墨西哥裔迎来“公正和公平”的机会。 墨西哥国立自治大学教授罗伯特·åŸƒå°”南德斯在接受墨《金融家报》采访时称，拜登获胜将给墨带来更多政策上的确定性，墨美双边关系也将回归制度性。如果拜登此前表示的禁止攻击性武器买卖的政策落实，将减少非法武器从美国贩运到墨西哥。此外，拜登上台将帮助美国回归多边主义，这也会使墨西哥直接受益。不过，他也提醒，民主党在历史上遣返移民的政策力度也不小，奥巴马执政时期就有很多墨西哥非法移民被驱逐。 è¿™4年，“人们都累了” 8日，BBC报道称，2016年特朗普赢得大选，部分原因在于他是一个打破常规的“政治局外人”，说了一些以前不能说的话，而2020年他输掉总统宝座，部分原因同样如此，一些当年支持他的人已开始反感他。文章称，正如2018年中期选举中的一幕——更多受过高等教育的共和党人认为特朗普太不像一个总统了，对其咄咄逼人的表现感到厌恶。具体来说，特朗普煽动种族紧张关系，在推特上使用种族主义语言，诋毁有色人种，而且在特殊场合没有充分谴责白人至上主义，甚至宣扬一些阴谋论。特朗普在国际问题上的做法也让部分美国选民失望，他们不愿看到美国冷对传统盟友，以及各种“退群”举措。 匹茨堡市民豪森斯汀4年前是特朗普的支持者，今年却投票给拜登，他表示：“人们都累了，希望这个国家停止仇恨，团结起来。大家想看到一个‘体面的’美国。”按照 BBC的分析，特朗普的失败，还在于他未能将自己的“地盘”扩大到特朗普核心阵营之外，“作为过去100年来最蓄意制造分裂的总统，他几乎没有试图去争取支持民主党的20个州——那部分‘蓝色的美国’”。 《纽约时报》8日刊文称，特朗普政府应对疫情的反常规举措让很多选民疲惫不堪，也让特朗普的败选成为定局。文章说，2020年混乱不堪，如众议院投票弹劾总统、“弗洛伊德之死”引发的反种族歧视抗议示威、大法官提名之争等，而特朗普一路迎合自己的保守派阵营，加剧了社会分裂，特别是“几个月来，他试图播下怀疑民主政治过程合法性的种子”。 值得一提的是，虽然拜登在本次大选中获胜，但特朗普的得票也超过7100万张，创下美国在任总统在大选中的得票纪录。这从一个侧面反映出“两个美国”之争日趋激烈。《纽约时报》认为，即使特朗普败选，他也展示出对许多白人选民的吸引力，特别是在农村地区的高人气。英国《金融时报》评论说，“创纪录的投票人数真正揭示的信息是，美国的分裂非常严重，双方看上去几乎势均力敌”。近半数美国选民仍支持特朗普，背后是这些人对保守主义的支持，以及对“进步主义”倾向的担心。过去半个世纪，新科技革命给美国带来持续增长动力，但大批美国乡村白人以及靠制造业获益的中产阶级被抛在后面，收入并没有实质改变。这些人担心民主党上台后，其政策将越发向硅谷高科技企业和少数族裔倾斜，导致其利益进一步受损。 “我认为特朗普的影响力不会随着他的失败而消失。”在美国世界安全研究所俄罗斯和亚洲项目主任兹洛宾看来，部分美国民众还会要求特朗普发表意见，在以后一段时间，作为“政治评论员”，他的观点还将对美国大众的情绪产生重大影响。对于想要“治愈与重建美国”的拜登来说，挑战会接踵而至。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8036,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/xmKgrKRthb-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C416&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7851,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/11\/05\/%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e3%80%81%e6%8b%9c%e7%99%bb%e8%aa%b0%e8%83%bd%e8%b4%8f%e5%be%97%e5%a4%a7%e9%81%b8%ef%bc%9f%e9%82%84%e6%9c%89%e9%80%99%e5%b9%be%e7%a8%ae%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd\/","url_meta":{"origin":8035,"position":0},"title":"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u3001\u62dc\u767b\u8ab0\u80fd\u8d0f\u5f97\u5927\u9078\uff1f\u9084\u6709\u9019\u5e7e\u7a2e\u53ef\u80fd","date":"November 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