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2,386 美国总统大选的结果将重组国际关系。德国反应并不慢，已经预先布局。这个貌似浓眉大眼的家伙也开始站队，选择站到美国一边。 　　据俄媒11月3日报道，德国防长卡伦鲍尔在接受澳大利亚《悉尼先驱报》采访时释放强硬讯号，声称德国要在“印太地区”保持军事存在，以保证该地区的稳定和安全。 　　她还原封不动地转述了美方的论述，妄称对某大国在“印太地区”不断扩大的影响力感到忧虑，因此要派遣军舰前往该地区巡逻，维护现有秩序。 　　德方宣称会派遣一艘军舰于2021年前往印度洋。而印度方面对此兴奋不已，对德方的表态大肆宣扬。印度长期以来都在寻求与德国建立一种”可靠合作伙伴”。 　　美国要在亚洲建立“小北约”已经是彻头彻尾的阳谋，其最为看重的就是把印度拉上战车。在10月26日美印举行“2+2会谈”并签署一系列军事协议之后，印度实际上已经放弃了独立自主的地位，选择“入伙”。 　　如今德国也宣布入局，无疑令印方感到振奋。同样受到鼓舞的还有澳大利亚。近几个月，澳大利亚在愚蠢的挑衅行动中受创严重。从小麦、牛肉、红酒、木材、煤矿、龙虾再铜矿，对华出口都纷纷受挫。堪培拉方面的痛感越来越强，尽管嘴上喊着不会妥协，但耐力已经所剩无几。澳大利亚无法为这些商品找到替代出口市场，而且美国作为竞争对手还在争抢澳大利亚的市场份额和空间。 　　幸好美国总统大选极有可能为澳方解套。不仅如此，一系列的西方国家还将归队，也许还将形成合力。这将成为堪培拉继续赖皮下去的动力。德国甚至要在远东与澳大利亚联合采取“自由航行”，无疑也为澳方注射了强心剂。 　　千里派兵只为利。德方派遣军事力量到“印太地区”，会产生一种给印度和澳大利亚充当帮手的色彩。当然，德国主要还是为自身考虑，推测可能有如下几个原因： 　　1、德国看到修复德美关系的曙光 　　鉴于拜登的赢面越来越大，默克尔最近也公开对美喊话，希望可以重建“友好关系”。德国主动弥合最近4年来一直不断扩大的裂痕，是因为看到了美国“重回正轨”的希望。 　　在特朗普任上，德美关系伤痕累累。美方在过去4年以短期的“可利用价值”来薅盟友的羊毛，让德国不知所措。甚至还以最后通牒的方式来勒令德国分摊更多的北约军费。就在2020å¹´7月，美方决定从德国撤军12000人，在10月又针对俄德合作的“北溪2号”天然气管道项目进行制裁。德美关系进入螺旋下滑轨道。 　　而今，德国似乎看到了曙光。德方直言不讳地承认，在此次美国大选之后，希望能够带领欧盟与美国签订新版“跨大西洋协议”。德国最期盼的无疑是白宫可以恢复正常。当然，这一切的前提是拜登胜选。 　　2、经贸关系固然重要，但德美盟约更重要 　　德方虽然承认世界第二大经济体对德国的重要性，承认紧密的经济联系使得双方都从中受益，但必须追随北约的步伐。 　　再牢固的金钱关系，也换不来真正的友谊。经贸关系不会成为压舱石，军事同盟关系才是最强的粘合剂。 　　现实就是，如果特朗普败选，而拜登放弃“美国优先”，重新重视盟友体系，那么西方国家们会很快聚拢到星条旗下。 　　3、德国要通过加入“印太战略”提升自身地位 　　作为二战的战败国，德国一直小心翼翼地隐藏对昔日荣光的渴望。即便是无比盼望成为联合国常任理事国，但也采取与日本、巴西、印度等进行捆绑的方式来“冲关”。在遭受一次次失败后，又建议法国把常任理事国的席位交给欧盟，遭到巴黎方面的断然拒绝。 　　英国退出欧盟之后，德国成为欧盟军事力量的重要支柱。在美国的不断施压与提醒下，柏林意识到“印太地区”在全球战略中的重要意义。 　　通过在“印太地区”插上一脚，德国能够重新建立在远东的军事存在，这对一个战败国来说是难得的突破。美国可以在亚洲玩离岸平衡，殊不知，德国作为老牌列强，也有强烈的渴望。在柏林看来，在亚洲进行干预，能够带来好处和利益，并提升德国在全球事务中的话语权。尽管现在看来派遣一艘军舰也只具有象征意义，可毕竟是个开始。 　　从德国的战略调整可以看出，特朗普当局把“压轴外交”放在印度、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫、印尼、越南这5个国家身上，已经释放出最明确不过的讯号。而柏林捕捉到了讯号背后的意义。 　　今年是庚子年，1900年也是庚子年。120年前入侵的列强和今天没有本质区别。弱肉强食的丛林法则只不过改头换面，变成了“维护现有国际秩序”。如果能够通过掠夺方式来获取东方的财富，西方国家绝不会貌似彬彬有礼地进行贸易。认清“朋友”的本质很重要，归根到底还是要有底线思维。面对更加险恶的国际局势，以后一帆风顺不会成为常态，对此要有充分准备。（完）<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7789,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/TEVQcjXx8b-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C416&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":45756,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/08\/01\/%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e5%82%b3%e5%87%ba%e5%8d%b1%e9%9a%aa%e4%bf%a1%e8%99%9f%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%8b%e5%80%8b%e6%9c%8815%e6%97%a5%e5%8d%b0%e5%a4%aa%e6%ac%b2%e7%8f%be%e6%96%b0%e6%95%b5%ef%bc%8c\/","url_meta":{"origin":7788,"position":0},"title":"\u65e5\u672c\u50b3\u51fa\u5371\u96aa\u4fe1\u865f\uff0c\u4e0b\u500b\u670815\u65e5\u5370\u592a\u6b32\u73fe\u201c\u65b0\u6575\u201d\uff0c\u63d0\u9192\u4e2d\u570b\u8981\u5c0f\u5fc3","date":"August 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