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2,557 　对于卡拉巴赫战争，亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆都输不起，也不敢输。 　　亚方输了就意味着以索罗斯为首的西方财团多年的幕后运作失败，数以亿计的投资将打了水漂；阿方输了就意味着”亚洲暴君国”时代的落幕，它是一个宗教、种族问题高度重叠的畸形产物。 　　但这些问题看起来和俄罗斯关联不大，为何战事从突起的那一刻，普京就如此战战兢兢？不要忘了，高加索地区可是俄罗斯传统的势力附着地，俄方在此有大量的利益牵扯。 　　如果亚方倒了，高加索地区无疑将成为一锅乱粥，西方顺势添点柴，整个俄西边边境将从此永无宁日；如果阿方倒了，西方的反俄同盟将进一步加强，其将触角深入到了俄西边的产油区，这将从根本损害俄罗斯的利益。 　　如此说来，西方不出面，俄罗斯也必须顶这个雷。普京或想了：能否将着力点放在亚美尼亚境内，要知道，自己在亚境内还有成规模的军事基地。 　　俄外交部网站证实了普京的猜测：其表示，如果冲突直接转移至亚方境内，那么克里姆林宫将向后者提供必要的援助。 　　请注意几个关键词：冲突转移、直接、亚美尼亚、克宫、必要的援助。合起来我们可以这样理解：当战火烧至亚美尼亚境内，俄罗斯的驻军将会行动起来，或确保埃里温不失。这么一来，战事将会控制在一定规模之内，即便卡拉巴赫”易主”，埃里温不是还有一块栖身之所吗？ 　　事实上，这种想法很短视，它低估了阿塞拜疆进击的决心，也忽略了土耳其这个和欧洲有着复杂情感的”巨人”。 　　当前欧盟因为疫情的第二轮爆发，开始有目的的自我封城；英国因为”脱欧”，和欧盟在进行最后的撕扯。美国因为大选的缘故，根本无暇顾及高加索事务。换言之，南高加索地区成为了一个”三不管”的地区，亚美尼亚或成为了真正意义上的”孤家寡人”，俄罗斯颇有些”赶鸭子上架”的味道。 　　俄方积极为冲突降级，并采取了多种外围的措施处置，关键是这些办法治标不治本。就像某些学者所言：它只能让阿亚暂时的缓口气，但这其中涉及的宗教、种族、信仰问题又当如何解。 　　法国因为劳动力短缺的问题，曾经大力放开移民进入欧洲的通道，让500万非洲、中东人扎根。如今全法逐步被”非化”，大量的异色皮肤的人种充斥于法国的各个街头，他们在与本土民众融合的过程中产生了诸多的问题。 　　当前沸沸扬扬的教师被割喉，德国军人清查清真寺等事件，正是这一矛盾激化的具体表现。举这个例子只想说明：纳卡冲突背后是中东文明和欧洲文明的直面碰撞，是以埃尔多安为首的伊斯兰国家对以基督教为主体的欧洲的直接挑战。 　　在斡旋多次无果之后，普京很可能会押注战争，就像当年处置格鲁战争和乌克兰内战那般。但这样做的后果非常的严重：高加索地区将成为火药桶，战事规格将剧烈升高。 　　俄罗斯出手不成，不出手也不成，莫斯科陷入了两难。但基于保障俄驻军安全和巩固盟友关系的需要，普京都需要做点什么吧。问题是，这种方式真能挡住土阿组成的”钢铁洪流”，恐怕结果不容乐观。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7674,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/ThTUPCtZmr-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C416&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":47420,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/11\/04\/%e4%bf%84%e7%83%8f%e9%99%b7%e5%85%a5%e5%83%b5%e6%8c%81%ef%bc%8c%e5%8c%97%e7%b4%84%e7%9c%8b%e5%90%91%e6%96%b0%e7%9a%84%e6%88%b0%e7%95%a5%e7%9b%ae%e6%a8%99%ef%bc%8c%e7%ac%ac%e4%ba%8c%e5%80%8b\/","url_meta":{"origin":7673,"position":0},"title":"\u4fc4\u70cf\u9677\u5165\u50f5\u6301\uff0c\u5317\u7d04\u770b\u5411\u65b0\u7684\u6230\u7565\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u201c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u201d\u547c\u4e4b\u6b32\u51fa","date":"November 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