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2,941 （原标题：特朗普政府再举贸易大棒！这一次被击中的是越南） 在美国总统选举进入倒计时之际，在贸易问题上美国政府又开辟了新“战线”。这一次针对的是越南。 美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）日前宣布将对越南木材和汇率政策发起“301调查”，这意味着美国可能将会对从越南进口的产品征收惩罚性关税。 在接受第一财经记者采访时，广西师范大学越南研究院黄兴球教授表示，美国政府想在越南贸易问题上动手蓄谋已久，“任内已经向越南举起了几次鞭子，这次终于落下”。 谁在操纵汇率问题 美国贸易代表办公室是在当地时间2日晚宣布前述决定的。所谓“301调查”源自美国《1974年贸易法》第301条，该条款授权美国贸易代表可对他国的“不合理或不公正贸易做法”发起调查，并可在调查结束后建议美国总统实施单边制裁。 根据声明，按照美国总统特朗普的指示，美国贸易代表将调查越南与进口或使用“非法采伐或非法贸易”木材相关的行为、政策和实践，以及可能导致越南货币贬值和对美国商业造成损害的行为、政策和实践。 其实，美国财政部今年8月底提交给美国商务部的汇率评估中，已认定受到越南政府的干预，越南盾兑美元汇率在2019年低估约4.7%。美国财政部表示，越南在2019年进行了220亿美元的国家外汇购买，将越南盾的有效汇率压低。 一旦美国财政部认为越南盾被低估，可能会增加财政部在半年度货币报告中，将越南认定为“汇率操纵国”的可能性。 美国贸易代表莱特希泽在声明中说，“不公平”的汇率会伤害与越南产品竞争的美国工人和企业，因为越南产品或因汇率低估而被“人为降低定价”。他表示，美国将仔细审查相关调查结果，然后决定是否采取相应措施。 越南央行从2016年起，在设定汇率方面已进一步迈向市场基准架构，每日调整越南盾的参考汇率，并允许市场在参考汇率的上下3%区间进行交易。 越南央行行长黎明兴日前表示，越南从未运用货币政策取得不公平竞争优势，并表示货币政策会持续以维持经济稳定、成长持久为目标，并实施支持复苏措施。 在接受第一财经记者采访时，黄兴球表示，近年来越南政府高层在访美期间，进行了飞机购买等大额采购，缓解了特朗普政府在贸易问题上的诉求，但最终还是无法满足美国的欲望，最终在今年美国大选前祭出了调查措施，敲打越南。 专家：或有扩散效应 越南央行在9月30日宣布，自10月1日起下调关键政策利率，以促进目前正在加快步伐的经济增长。这是越南今年第三度降息。 根据亚洲发展银行9月最新的报告，越南今年的经济增长率预估为1.8%。由于抗疫政策较为成功和全球产业链转移等因素，越南是今年有望实现经济正增长的少数亚洲经济体之一。 当前，越南已跻身于美国前十大贸易伙伴之列，对美国的贸易顺差也在拉大。根据越南方面的统计，今年1至7月，美国对越南货物贸易逆差达348亿美元。 在2日美国做出调查的宣布后，越南国家通讯社越通社在3日发表了一篇名为《经贸合作—越美关系发展中的亮点》的评论。 文章表示，越美关系自1995å¹´7月12日实现正常化以来，越南与美国已经转化为伙伴国，并建立了全面伙伴关系，双边贸易额也在25年内，增长了近120倍。文章在最后写道，“两国贸易投资合作关系不断增长。双方已制定行动计划，其中推出多项具体措施，实现两国贸易关系和谐可持续发展”。 在接受第一财经记者采访时，黄兴球表示，近年来，美国和越南的关系的确发展还不错，但是贸易问题的主动权还是掌握在美方手里。“即便越南希望缓和贸易关系，也很难实现，因为越南相对没有还手之力，很难与美国进行周旋，在很多情况下只能被动接受。”他说。 马来亚银行金英证券研究部经济学家Linda Liu表示，对越南展开调查是特朗普政府对越南的警告，同时，泰国和马来西亚等也需要有所警惕，因为针对越南的调查，很可能也对针对其他东盟经济体。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7051,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/0plkjmqAgU-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C372&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7087,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/10\/07\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%8f%88%e8%a6%81%e5%8f%91%e5%8b%95%e8%b2%bf%e6%98%93%e6%88%b0%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81%e8%87%a8%e8%bf%91%e5%a4%a7%e9%81%b8%ef%bc%8c%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e7%9a%84%e6%a5%b5%e7%ab%af\/","url_meta":{"origin":7050,"position":0},"title":"\u7f8e\u570b\u53c8\u8981\u53d1\u52d5\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e86\uff01\u81e8\u8fd1\u5927\u9078\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u6975\u7aef\u653f\u7b56\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u760b\u72c2\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5c07\u88ab\u62d6\u5411\u4f55\u8655\uff1f","date":"October 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