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\u636e\u5916\u5a92\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u57c3\u514b\u68ee\u7f8e\u5b5a\u6b63\u5728\u5bfb\u6c42\u5b8c\u5168\u9000\u51fa\u82f1\u56fd\u5317\u6d77\u6cb9\u6c14\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u6d89\u53ca\u8be5\u5730\u533a15\u4e2a\u6cb9\u7530\u7684\u80a1\u4efd\u548c\u7ba1\u9053\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u65e5\u4ea7\u91cf\u9ad8\u8fbe3.7\u4e07\u6876\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u79d1\u5a01\u7279\u77f3\u6cb9\u52d8\u63a2\u516c\u53f8\uff08Kufpec\uff09\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u7684EnQuest\u5728\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u7ade\u9010\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Rystad Energy\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u5de8\u5934\u4eec\u7531\u4e8e\u8f6c\u578b\u9700\u8981\uff0c\u6216\u88ab\u8feb\u51fa\u552e\u6216\u4e92\u6362\u903e1000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5e76\u7cbe\u7b80\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u3001\u6210\u672c\u6548\u7387\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8fd8\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u5de8\u5934\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u572860\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u201c\u5bfb\u6c42\u9000\u51fa203\u4e2a\u6cb9\u6c14\u533a\u57df\u201d\uff0c\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u6cb9\u6c14\u533a\u57df\u603b\u6570\u4ece293\u4e2a\u51cf\u5c11\u523090\u4e2a\u3002\u800c\u6700\u7ec8\u51b3\u5b9a\u77f3\u6cb9\u5de8\u5934\u80fd\u5426\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ee7\u7eed\u5f00\u5c55\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6807\u51c6\u662f\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e94\u5e74\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u589e\u957f\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rystad\u9ad8\u7ea7\u526f\u603b\u88c1Tore Guldbrandsoy\u5bf9\u6b64\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u5de8\u5934\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7\u52d8\u63a2\u3001\u6536\u8d2d\u6216\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u516c\u53f8\u8fdb\u884c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e92\u6362\uff0c\u5728\u4f18\u5148\u8003\u8651\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fdb\u884c\u6269\u5f20\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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2,568 日前，挪威能源研究机构雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）研究显示，壳牌、bp、埃克森美孚、道达尔、埃尼、康菲石油、雪佛龙和挪威国油等“大型石油公司+”，可能会在不同地区“被迫”出售或互换高达680亿桶石油当量、价值1110亿美元的资产。 这一观点并非空穴来风，截至目前，埃尼、英国石油公司、壳牌等先锋部队已经开始出手了。 01、”被迫”剥离1110亿美元资产 自19世纪50年代末以来，现代石油工业就经历了超过一个半世纪起伏颠簸的发展。至于今年，疫情的突发、供需的扭转将国际原油价格再度打入了进入低位运行区间。 这也直接引发了石油巨头业绩的“溃败”。 据统计，今年上半年，壳牌、bp、埃克森美孚、道达尔和雪佛龙等五大国际石油巨头，以及国内的中石油、中石化累积亏损超过3500亿元。期间，各大顶尖石油巨头频频被爆出资产抛售。 据外媒报道，埃克森美孚正在寻求完全退出英国北海油气区域，资产涉及该地区15个油田的股份和管道基础设施，日产量高达3.7万桶，吸引了包括科威特石油勘探公司（Kufpec）和英国的EnQuest在内企业的竞逐。 知情人士表示，有约束力的竞购定于今年10月到期，交易预计将在2021年第一季度完成。 无独有偶，今年9月份，壳牌准备将在Equinor运营的北海油田Kvitebj?rnå’ŒValemon的权益出售给PGNiG上游挪威公司（PUN），目前交易已获双方同意；此外，雪佛龙也正与意大利埃尼集团就出售印尼东加里曼丹岛深水开发项目所持有的股份的可能性进行谈判。 可是，有迹象显示，诸如此类频繁的资产交易，或许仅仅是冰山一角。 Rystad Energy最新研究报告显示，石油巨头们由于转型需要，或被迫出售或互换逾1000亿美元的资产，并精简投资组合，以提高现金流、成本效率。研究还预计，石油巨头可能会在60个国家“寻求退出203个油气区域”，将它们在各国的油气区域总数从293个减少到90个。而最终决定石油巨头能否在一个国家继续开展业务的关键标准是，未来五年的现金流和投资组合的潜在增长率。 Rystad高级副总裁Tore Guldbrandsoy对此表示:“石油和天然气巨头将通过勘探、收购或与其他主要公司进行资产互换，在优先考虑的国家进行扩张。” 02、石油行业还香不香？ 如此，是否意味着石油行业凉了？ 答案并不尽然。 回溯历史，油价百年的起起伏伏中，有不少企业黯然退场，但石油行业尤其大牌石油公司整体表现稳健。今年油价的暴跌，自然不会是压倒行业的最后一根稻草。 目前来看，巨头间集体“异动”更多是长期愿景的调整，追求一种均衡发展——新能源与油气资产间的平衡。 以转型“激进”的代表bp为例，在8月5日发布的新十年战略中，bp未来三大业务领域将聚焦极具竞争力的油气业务、便利零售和移动出行以及低碳电力和新能源。在整个战略转型期，油气业务依然是企业能源版图中的核心一环。 未来，包括bp在内的石油巨头或通过“以物换物”的方式，出售非核心油气资产换取新能源资产，或者更优质的油气资产。 Rystad在报告中就指出，各大公司可能在不同国家投资组合之间进行互换，比如英国石油、埃尼和康菲可以考虑收购埃克森美孚、道达尔和壳牌在印尼的投资组合。 此外，就石油本身而言，行业仍存在许多新的发展机遇。 9月22日，中国石油勘探开发研究院发布的《全球油气勘探开发形势及油公司动态（2020年）》显示，今年油气勘探行业遭受重创，油气勘探更加审慎，但长期来看，全球待发现油气资源依然丰富，未来世界经济将重返缓慢上升的发展轨道，全球油气勘探行业仍需保持信心。 同样《bp世界能源展望》2020年版表明，世界仍然会对新的石油和天然气生产进行大量的投资，否则将无法满足供需之间的差距。未来30年内，油气上游的投资量依然将高达9~20万亿美元。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7013,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/n58ELKTa1f-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C384&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":43097,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/06\/11\/%e6%8b%9c%e7%99%bb%e6%8b%bf%e7%9f%b3%e6%b2%b9%e5%b7%a8%e9%a0%ad%e9%96%8b%e5%88%80%ef%bc%9a%e4%bd%a0%e5%80%91%e5%8e%bb%e5%b9%b4%e8%b3%ba%e5%be%97%e6%af%94%e4%b8%8a%e5%b8%9d%e9%82%84\/","url_meta":{"origin":7012,"position":0},"title":"\u62dc\u767b\u62ff\u77f3\u6cb9\u5de8\u982d\u201c\u958b\u5200\u201d\uff1a\u4f60\u5011\u53bb\u5e74\u8cfa\u5f97\u6bd4\u4e0a\u5e1d\u9084\u591a","date":"June 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