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2,669 2020年太不寻常了，太多的变数，我们已经见证了太多的历史。 反正，应该很多人都没想到，在大选节骨眼上，特朗普夫妇确诊了。最新的消息，特朗普出现发烧等症状，已戴着口罩前往美国沃尔特里德军事医院，接受进一步治疗。 10月2日的全球股市，刚开始暴跌，继而有所反弹，但纳斯达克指数，还是大跌了2.22%，油价则暴跌了4%多。 中国人还在享受超长的假期，世界已发生重大改变，我们至少要警惕三只黑天鹅。 黑天鹅一，纳卡的战争。 尽管全世界都在呼吁停火，但在亚洲的另一端，一场惨烈的战争在继续。 阿塞拜疆和亚美尼亚都拒绝停火。两国都在全面战争动员，几乎所有成年男子都被征召入伍。 过去这几年，战争不少，但两个国家这样开打，这样全面战争动员，还是非常非常少见。 在争夺重点的纳卡地区，当局宣布，这个周末，又有54名士兵被打死，目前死亡总数已超过150人；在一个山坳里，至少11个平民被打死，60人受伤。 阿塞拜疆方面没有公布士兵伤亡，但宣称，亚美尼亚的炮火至少导致20平民被打死，55人受伤。 这场激烈的战争，也提醒我们，战争方式可能彻底变了。因为很多人可能跟我一样，最大的冲击，应该还不是战争的新闻，而是无人机打坦克的画面——一辆辆坦克就像玩具一样，被无人机从高空锁定目标，然后轻松摧毁。 坦克，曾经的陆战之王，现在似乎成了活靶子。 但，战争的后果，仍是非常惨烈的。 这场战争中，最大的黑天鹅，可能是随时爆发的石油危机和生态灾难。 别忘了，阿塞拜疆是重要的产油国，一条通向土耳其和欧洲的重要石油管道，就距离纳卡交战区域不远。 炮弹是不长眼睛的，如果打红了眼睛，炮火袭击了这条管道，那首先将是一场生态灾难，欧洲也将面临新的石油危机。 这只黑天鹅，不能不防。战争，还是别打了。 第二只黑天鹅，英国又毁约了。 过去5年，感觉英国就净在折腾了，一轮又一轮公投，然后是没完没了的脱欧，换了三个首相。终于，现在脱欧看来成了，但哪知道，平地又起波澜。 欧盟已连发两道最后通牒。 第一道通牒，针对英国下议院9月29日通过的《国内市场法》，要求英国必须在9月30日前撤回这些条款，因为与已生效的脱欧条约违背。 英国人没有反应，欧盟很生气。 然后，是第二道通牒，限英国一个月内作出答复，否则，欧盟采取法律行动，最终让欧洲法院来裁决。 争议的焦点，是北爱尔兰的地位。 别忘了，英国是要脱欧，但北爱尔兰是坚决主张留在欧盟的。 一旦脱欧完成，如果在北爱和爱尔兰之间设立边境，北爱人肯定不答应，那肯定天下大乱，爆炸和鲜血将卷土重来。 怎么办？ 英国人也是绞尽脑汁。按照约翰逊和欧盟之前达成的协议，或许可以这样说：英国人终于向中国学习，实行“一国两制”。 北爱尔兰的国防和外交，仍旧归英国；但北爱将实行特殊关税区，和英伦三岛区别对待。 但英国人最不地道的一点，就是喜欢搞小动作。英国国会日前又通过《国内市场法》，意图废除有关北爱尔兰的特殊条款。 欧盟翻脸了。协议墨迹未干，英国就来反悔？ 于是，争吵开始了。 最坏的可能，英国和欧盟不欢而散，协议被抛弃，那意味着英国彻底硬脱欧，世界市场将是一片惊涛骇浪。 这真是一只大黑天鹅，还且折腾呢。 但再大的黑天鹅，也赶不上最近这第三只，特朗普确诊，现在还要进医院了…… 反正，股市大跌，油市暴跌。 资本市场，最害怕的，就是这种不确定性。 因为这带来的是一系列我们无法预料的重大变数。 美国大选还怎么办？下一场辩论辩不辩？ 万一特朗普身体不佳，按照美国宪法，副总统彭斯接掌政权；万一彭斯身体也不好，那就是民主党佩洛西老太太了…… 看BBC的一篇评论就说： 离美国大选还有32天，“十月惊奇”如约而至，特朗普的病情必将带来巨大的后坐力，为本就充满未知数的大选再添变数。 特朗普以往关于疫情与防疫的言论，将会再度被严格审视。民众将质疑他是否低估了病毒的威胁，无论是在全美范围内还是在白宫，都未能遵守科学防疫的规定，将团队与国家安全置于险境。 然而，对于民主党与拜登来说，特朗普的确诊亦不全然是利好消息。 在国家经历动荡时，美国公众通常与总统同心协力、共渡难关。特朗普夫妇的病情也将牵动着美国选民的心。接下来几周内，民主党人如何继续抨击特朗普政府防疫不力，同时避免被视为落井下石，这将是对拜登竞选团队的一大考验…… 这都是BBC的分析，不是我说的。 但我要说的一点是，在生命面前，任何幸灾乐祸，都是不应该的。我们还是要有起码的人性和风度，祝福每一个病人都战胜疾病。 反正，我看到，普京已经致电了，说：我确信，你内在的生命力、良好的精神和乐观的情绪，将帮助你应对这危险的病毒。 中国外交部发言人华春莹也发推说，很遗憾听到这一消息，希望他们都能早日康复，好起来。 其他各国政要也纷纷发言，期待特朗普康复。前一天还和特朗普吵得不可开交的拜登，也发推说：吉尔和我把我们的想法转达给特朗普总统和第一夫人梅拉尼娅·ç‰¹æœ—普，希望他们早日康复。我们将继续为总统及其家人的健康和安全祈祷。 这才是大国的样子，这也是必要的政治风度。 病毒是全人类的敌人，甩锅不解决问题。谁疏忽，谁轻慢，谁付出代价。这可能是2020年世界最惨痛的教训了。 最后再啰嗦两句，世界百年未有之大变局，黑天鹅不会少，我们更要有忧患意识。 1000多年前，苏轼在《晁错论》中曾这样警告：天下之患，最不可为者，名为治平无事，而其实有不测之忧。 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