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\u25b2\u7279\u6717\u666e\u63a8\u7279\u622a\u56fe<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u25b2\u62dc\u767b\u3001\u7279\u6717\u666e \u56fe\u636eAP<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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2,662 10月2日，美国总统特朗普突然在推特上宣布，自己和第一夫人梅拉尼娅新冠病毒检测均呈阳性，已开始隔离。在此之前，特朗普最亲密的助手之一霍普·å¸Œå…‹æ–¯å·²è¢«ç¡®è¯Šæ„ŸæŸ“了新冠病毒。 ▲特朗普最亲密的助手之一霍普·å¸Œå…‹æ–¯ï¼ˆå³)被确诊感染新冠病毒 图据AFP 在此之前，特朗普的民调一直落后于拜登。就在刚结束的2020年美国大选首场辩论上，特朗普的表现也让许多美国人感到失望。在这样一个背景下，特朗普突然被确诊感染新冠病毒，这将对接下来，只剩下一个月的美国大选产生怎样的影响？确诊感染是否会让特朗普因祸得福、彻底扭转之前的颓势？如果拜登跟特朗普同时被感染，大选还能否如期举行？对此，红星新闻记者对话外交与国际关系智库察哈尔学会高级研究员王冲，试图解开上述备受关注的疑问。 这或许不是特朗普耍的阴谋 特朗普通过推特宣布自己确诊感染新冠，距离美国总统大选投票仅剩1个月左右的时间。此番，特朗普在这个关键时刻被确诊，会不会是他耍的一个阴谋？外界诸多猜测认为，特朗普或用自己的感染来博取美国人民的同情。 ▲特朗普推特截图 “我不认为这是特朗普耍的阴谋。因为感染后是藏不住，也不可能去伪造。所以，特朗普一旦感染，美国肯定是要宣布的。”不过，王冲分析认为，“特朗普在其推特上宣布被确诊的消息，多多少少都会为他取得一点民众的同情分。因为他作为总统不可能像拜登一样躲在室内不出来，必须要到处去访问，参加很多活动，因此特朗普感染的风险比拜登大得多。而对生病的人抱有一定的同情，则是人之常情。所以，从总体上看，特朗普的感染会帮他把之前失去的分捞一点回来。至少他现在的民意支持率很难再继续往下跌了。” 与此同时，王冲还进一步向红星新闻记者表示：“之前那场辩论，我不认为特朗普完全失败了。虽然从举止、仪态、语言、对对手的攻击等方面，特朗普都表现得很粗鲁，这的确有失总统的身份，但拜登的表现也不好，他没有明确传达出自己的施政纲领。民调有些时候并不客观，人为因素很大。” 确诊感染新冠无法让选情突变 有分析认为，特朗普可能会借机大打“悲情牌”，把自己塑造成一个为了美国民众的利益而不顾个人安危、殚精竭虑的形象。这样一来，特朗普就有翻盘的可能。对此，王冲认为：“翻盘的可能性不大。实际上八成以上的选民，现在基本上都已定了会选谁。尽管今年的大选情况很特殊，但目前依然犹豫不决的人是极少数。” 王冲还指出，如果整个美国大选按照“三三制”来看的话，三分之一民主党的支持者和三分之一共和党的支持者肯定都会毫不动摇地投本党的票。而剩下三分之一的则是摇摆选民，即便是这些摇摆选民，到了现在基本上也大多都决定把票投给谁了。无论是电视辩论还是这次被确诊感染新冠病毒带来的情感上的加分，这些因素对投票的影响都非常小，根本达不到让选情突变，特朗普由此翻盘的效果。 拜登是否被传染才是最大的变数 当前，最让大众关注的是拜登的身体健康问题。“特朗普确诊感染，给选情带来的最大变数在于拜登是否被感染。”王冲亦向红星新闻记者表示，当时（当地时间9月29日）在首场辩论的时候，特朗普和拜登都没有戴口罩，虽然他们保持了1米以上的社交距离，但拜登的年纪比特朗普大，身体状况可能更糟糕。一旦拜登被感染，各种可能都会发生。这才是今年美国大选最大的不确定因素。 ▲拜登、特朗普 图据AP “如果特朗普感染了，他的工作将由副总统彭斯来代理。选举也是这样，两党都有竞选委员会，假如拜登和特朗普同时都因为感染新冠病毒而无法正常参加选举的话，可能也将由副总统候选人来进行选举。这将是美国总统选举历史上从未出现过的现象，如果真的发生了，只能说对共和党更加有利。因为副总统彭斯的资历和影响力远胜民主党副总统候选人哈里斯。”王冲认为。 不过，王冲也表示，像这种两个总统候选人同时都无法参加大选的可能性微乎其微，“从英国首相约翰逊以及其他一些政要的感染情况来看，治疗一般会被控制在两个星期以内。美国的治疗水平是全球顶级的，即便感染了，特朗普或拜登也应该很快就能被治愈，至少不断恶化的可能性较小。” “哪怕在隔离治疗期间，他们也可以通过社交媒体等发声。不过，特朗普感染以及与拜登的竞选也从侧面反映了美国当前面临的一个严峻问题——两党整体后继无人了。”王冲指出。 红星新闻记者 罗天 编辑 郭宇 (原标题：特朗普确诊新冠 专家：拜登是否也被传染才是选举的最大变数)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6854,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/72f69ca06ab649c89ac0e1459b48a886_\u526f\u672c.png?fit=700%2C390&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6826,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/10\/03\/%e9%87%8d%e7%a3%85%e7%aa%81%e7%99%bc%ef%bc%81%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e7%a2%ba%e8%a8%ba%e6%96%b0%e5%86%a0%ef%bc%8c%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e9%87%8d%e6%8c%ab\/","url_meta":{"origin":6853,"position":0},"title":"\u91cd\u78c5\u7a81\u767c\uff01\u7279\u6717\u666e\u78ba\u8a3a\u65b0\u51a0\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u5834\u91cd\u632b","date":"October 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