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2,932 在逐渐失去中国买家的关键节骨眼上，澳大利亚对华出口再遭一记重击。9月22日，在第75届联合国大会期间，我国提出力争在2030年前将二氧化碳排放达到峰值，努力争取2060年前实现碳中和的目标；我国作出这一表态之后，随即引发国际市场的广泛关注，尤其是澳大利亚也开始犯愁了。 中国定下碳中和目标，澳大利亚“犯愁”！ 据澳大利亚广播公司（ABC）9月29日报道，在该媒体探讨澳大利亚疫情后重启经济的《Q+A》节目中，专家团提出了一个警告：中国市场的碳中和目标可能意味着澳对华的化石燃料出口将严重下降，从而使得澳大利亚在经济上遭受“巨大痛苦”。澳业内人士指出，中国市场正在寻求更深程度的自给自足，未来将大幅减少对澳化石燃料的依赖。 实际上，澳大利亚的担忧并非空穴来风。环球网曾在今年6月援引英国《卫报》指出，中国市场正加大“蓝天保卫战”力度，争取将西部的更多可再生能源利用特高压电网输送到东部沿海地区，此举将使中国市场在2025年前减少18.4%的煤炭需求，相当于（澳煤）进口量的4倍以上。 英媒对此评论称，中国未来减少煤炭用量的趋势没有理由会被改变——中国对热煤的进口或将归零，且过程很可能极其迅速，澳大利亚已经面临巨大的问题。 相关的进口数据似乎也正论证着这一观点。据澳官方数据显示，7月份澳对华出口商品同比下降16%，其中煤炭和铁矿石的出口大幅下降，与今年3至6月份澳大利亚煤炭和铁矿石的对华出口销售相比，形成强烈的反差。而2019年，澳大利亚对华出口的矿产品占对其华出口总额的68.7%，出口额达714亿美元（约4860亿元人民币）。 蒙古修建铁路，3000万吨煤炭来华？澳煤另一买家也要“戒煤” 如果说中国未来减少化石燃料用量对澳大利亚来说是一大长期挑战，那后者在华的短期挑战即是面临巨大的竞争。就拿煤炭来说，目前蒙古国正在计划建设一条专门的铁路，以将煤炭运至中国市场，这条铁路的第一阶段预估将于2021年完成，建成后每年可将3000万吨以上的蒙古炼焦煤运送至华。英媒指出，面对（蒙煤）的成本与价格优势，“很难想象澳该如何竞争”。 除了蒙古国，俄罗斯也是澳大利亚不可忽视的竞争对手。据国际能源网报道，俄罗斯能源部指出，到2035年该国煤炭年产量或将达到6.68亿吨，在全球煤炭出口市场的份额也将从目前的11%扩大到25%；同时，预计在未来10年内，俄罗斯对华煤炭出口将比目前的水平翻一番，达到5500万吨——而如果能够成功实现这个目标，那么俄罗斯将在本世纪内成为全球主要的动力煤出口国。 值得一提的是，尽管澳大利亚国内部分声音认为，澳洲矿产在失去中国市场后，还有印度和亚洲其他市场等需求填补；但事实上，其他市场的需求与中国巨大的需求市场无法相提并论，另一方面也是印度对化石燃料的“需求”正在逐渐发生变化。 2016年，印度政府曾出台“戒媒”计划，拟“戒掉”大量使用煤炭发电的陈规陋习，同时大力发展新能源技术，并宣布将在2017年实现全面停止煤炭进口的目标；尽管这一政策随后不了了之，但也可以看到印度正有计划地朝着新能源反向发展，这也将让澳大利亚这一“坐在矿车上的国家”的经济前景变得黯淡。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6746,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/e32276a41b1ded06_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C390&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":10202,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/12\/11\/%e6%be%b3%e5%a4%a7%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9e%e6%b2%92%e7%8d%b2%e8%81%af%e5%90%88%e5%9c%8b%e6%b0%a3%e5%80%99%e8%a1%8c%e5%8b%95%e5%b3%b0%e6%9c%83%e9%82%80%e8%ab%8b%ef%bc%8c%e6%9c%aa%e8%b7%9f%e9%9a%a8%e4%b8%ad\/","url_meta":{"origin":6745,"position":0},"title":"\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9e\u6c92\u7372\u806f\u5408\u570b\u6c23\u5019\u884c\u52d5\u5cf0\u6703\u9080\u8acb\uff0c\u672a\u8ddf\u96a8\u4e2d\u65e5\u97d3\u63d0\u51fa2060\u5e74\u524d\u96f6\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u627f\u8afe","date":"December 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