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2,1818月8日，据美国纽约联储周一公布的一项调查显示，美国消费者对今后一年的通胀率的预期大幅下降，尽管这表明市场认可美联储遏制通胀的努力，但是也包含了对于衰退的担忧。 据这份调查报告数据显示，对一年内通胀预期中位数下降0.6%至6.2%，三年期展望下降0.4%至3.2%，分别为今年2月和去年4月以来最低水平。 另外，据美国NFIB的数据显示，上月小企业信心指数小幅上涨0.4点，尽管仍处于低潮位置，但却是该数据自去年12月以来首次回温。 而美联储内最激进的“é¹°æ´¾”成员，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德也表示，即将公布的7月通胀数据将有所缓解。 诸多信号都预示着美国此次高通胀或许将度过“最高峰”，但市场并未感到欢迎鼓舞。尽管目前美债市场并未出现明显方向，但是可以确定的是：市场担忧情绪仍旧浓厚。 美债收益率隔夜普遍走高。截至昨日纽约时段尾盘，2年期国债收益率上涨6.2个基点、5年期上涨5.4个基点、10年期上涨2.2个基点、30年期上涨0.5个基点。收益率上涨意味着债券被抛售，短期国债收益率大幅上涨，意味着市场不看好短期经济前景，大量抛售美债。 更加值得警惕的是，美债收益率倒挂日益加深。 昨日，2年期和10年期国债间利差达到-49个基点，为2000年以来最大差值。收益率倒挂（即利差为负）是非常罕见的金融现象，而且收益率倒挂往往是经济衰退的前兆。按照1900年来的历史数据统计，约70%的倒挂发生后，经济在半年到一年后陷入衰退。 尽管市场预计7月通胀将小幅降温，但依旧无法阻止美联储进一步加息的步伐。而紧缩的货币政策和紧张的世界市场供应链将进一步削弱经济动能，提升衰退风险。 此次美联储的态度，让人不禁联想起20世纪80年代的美联储主席保罗·æ²ƒå°”克。1979年时，美国通胀率达到13%的高位，时任总统卡特任命沃尔克为美联储主席。沃尔克通过大幅加息、减少货币供应增长量等坚定的鹰派手段，成功抑制了旷日持久的高通胀，但是也使美国经济陷入1929年大萧条后的最严重衰退期，数百万的小企业和小农场主破产，全国上下怨声载道。 尽管自沃尔克以后，美国经济长期保持较低的通胀率，支持沃尔克的人用“阵痛”来为其辩解。但是，无数的小企业、大学毕业生、小店主、农民等等，他们都不是简单的“代价”，或者冷冰冰的统计数字，他们遭受了切实的痛苦。这种简单的“成本—收益”式的计算方式，并不适合用于制定现代国家的经济政策。 而且，实际上，降低通胀有许多可选的路径，激进加息只是其中一种，也是副作用较大的一种。高通胀实际上是结构性的问题，加息往往只是治标不治本。因此，一遇到高通胀就制造衰退的“沃尔克式”的路径，并不适合作为一种常态化选项。 如今看来，鲍威尔及其领导的美联储，表现出坚定对抗通胀的决心，意图走40年前沃尔克的老路，制造一场衰退来遏制通胀。而这次，谁会是 “阵痛”çš„“代价”？ æ–‡ | 魏来 题 | 黄梓昕 审 | 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