<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u519b\u6ca1\u6709\u505a\u597d\u6218\u4e89\u51c6\u5907<\/p>\n

\u8d70\u5411\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u7f8e\u4fc4\u90fd\u672a\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u5317\u7ea6\u5185\u90e8\u5e76\u975e\u94c1\u677f\u4e00\u5757<\/p>\n

\u5317\u7ea6\u5bf9\u4fc4\u8ba4\u77e5\u96be\u534f\u8c03<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u5317\u7ea6\u542f\u52a8\u6539\u9769\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e0e\u6b27\u76df\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u6269\u5927\u52a0\u5267<\/p>\n

\u5317\u7ea6\u6b27\u76df\u6743\u5229\u6597\u4e89\u52a0\u5267<\/p>\n

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2,647 美国“学者”试图偷换概念，乌克兰问题的棋手是美俄欧，没有乌克兰 当前乌克兰和俄罗斯在边境的对峙行动仍然没有结束，一些“美国学者”开始跳出来就“俄乌冲突”地走向发表“高见”。美国乔治城大学教授斯坦特设置了一个“命题”，“在俄罗斯对乌克兰发动军事行动”的基础上，中国不会对俄罗斯提供军事支持。为了让自己的“命题”看起来更像是真的，这位美国学者“理性分析”道：支持俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事行动与中国“命运共同体”的和平理念不符。美国学者的说法实际上是包藏祸心，因为在近期的中俄领导人视频会议上，双方已经表态将“坚定支持对方维护国家核心利益的相关行动”，乌克兰问题直接关系到俄罗斯在国家安全领域的核心利益，试问中国到底是支持还是不支持？这就是美国“学者”想要给中国设置的陷阱，其本质意图是蓄意挑拨中俄关系。事实上，普京心知肚明，俄罗斯无意发起对外战争，俄罗斯关心的核心问题是乌克兰是否在未来长期恪守中立地位。即便是俄乌之间冲突再现，双方的战斗也将继续是此前的“零敲碎打”的模式，不存在美国“学者”们提及的“俄罗斯入侵乌克兰”的可能性，中国援助或者不援助的说法也就没有任何意义。 美军没有做好战争准备 走向冲突，美俄都未做好准备 美国的学者们在讨论乌克兰危机时，总是故意基于一个并不存在的前提，即俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的冲突仅仅是这两个国家之间的问题。事实上，乌克兰危机是涉及欧洲安全构建方向的格局性重大问题，其背后是美国主导的北约的暗箱运作和俄罗斯为了国家利益而必须采取的对等回应。对于俄罗斯而言，乌克兰那一亩三分地根本与自己的国家利益无关，阻止北约继续东扩，使得欧洲能够真正“接纳”俄罗斯才关系到俄罗斯的核心利益。由于乌克兰在地缘上的特殊性，俄罗斯必须确保乌克兰在俄罗斯与北约之间保持彻底的中立，这样才能够维持双方的平衡。可见，“俄乌冲突”这种提法根本就是伪命题，乌克兰只是个棋子不是棋手，而俄罗斯在乌克兰危机上的底线非常明确，很可惜，这帮“学者”çš„“研究”只不过是在为美国政府的欧洲战略背书。事实上，当前美国和俄罗斯都没有做好冲突的准备。在此前的东乌武装冲突中，俄罗斯通过少量的营战术群就可以维持整条战线上的优势，但如果说发动进攻，即便是整个俄罗斯西部军区都投进去恐怕都不太够。至于拜登政府，他们在涉及乌克兰问题上的惺惺作态只是为了自己的地缘政治利益服务，兵戎相见？美国从决策层到基层部队实际上都未做好准备。 北约内部并非铁板一块 北约对俄认知难协调 共同的威胁与安全认知是联盟形成、转型的基础，虽然北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格多次表示不应对俄罗斯已成为北约战略目标的重中之重，但其呼声仍然掩盖不了北约内部的安全认知裂痕。在对俄安全认知上，北约内部立场不一。与波罗的海三国视俄罗斯为威胁不同，德国、法国始终保持与俄罗斯的密切接触。德国与俄罗斯签订的“北溪二号”天然气管道项目让欧洲对俄罗斯产生了能源依赖，这为欧洲能源供给带来安全隐患。2019å¹´12月，土耳其拒绝批准北约波罗的海三国和波兰的军事防御计划，以威北约和欧盟的权利斗争胁北约承认其认定的“库尔德人民保护部队”(KurdishPeople’sProtectionUnits)为恐怖主义组织的立场。在此阶段，俄罗斯与土耳其达成双边协议对土叙边境展开联合巡逻，并就出售S-400地对空导弹防御系统和引进苏35战机进行谈判，俄土关系的进展进一步强化了北约盟友的担忧。 北约启动改革以来，与欧盟之间的矛盾扩大加剧 北约欧盟权利斗争加剧 自冷战形成以来，北约一直是欧洲安全和美欧关系的主要平台，冷战后北约和欧盟的双东扩进程给彼此带来了多重压力，尽管双方努力构建伙伴关系、共同推进欧洲安全合作，但在有关该领域的职能和主导权等诸多问题上彼此形成了某种程度上的潜在竞争关系，这是新一轮北约变革所难以回避的一个障碍。首先，北约和欧盟的机制重叠体现于成员国的重叠。冷战结束后，北约和欧盟都进行了扩张行动。截止今日，在北约的30个成员国中加拿大、美国、英国、冰岛、挪威等9个国家不属于欧盟成员国，在欧盟的27个成员国中奥地利、塞浦路斯、芬兰等6个国家不属于北约成员国。北约和欧盟成员国的分离性重叠使得二者选择偏好产生分歧，安全合作成本提高。最后，二者的机构重叠。1999年科索沃战 争使得欧盟意识到自身防务力量的缺乏，欧盟理事会一致通过组建快速反应部队，2003å¹´10月北约也成立了快速反应部队，二者作战目标几乎相同。与此类似，欧盟理事会政治与安全委员会与北约理事会都执行相似的政治军事职能。因此可预见，随着北约的进一步政治性转型，其与欧盟的机构重叠的强化也似乎在所难免。双方在对于欧洲主导权的争夺上的博弈也将越来越激烈，但需要注意的是，作为纯粹的军事同盟，北约的存在实际上是建立在欧盟的资金支持的前提下，虽然北约雄心勃勃想要在政治层面发挥更大的影响，但是钱根子卡在欧盟手里，谅它也不能在核心问题上违背欧盟的意志。 北溪2号项目让俄欧双方发现，贸易合作好过矛盾吵架 各方博弈，战略均势仍然存在 乌克兰仅仅是棋子，俄罗斯与欧盟两位棋手已经在诸多方面形成了共同利益。在许多国际和地区问题上俄欧比俄美的共同利益多。在维护国际格局多极化和坚持多边主义方面，俄欧有共同立场。面对北极变暖和极端天气不断出现，俄罗斯和欧盟都认为保护环境极为重要，反对美国退出气候变化《巴黎协定》，主张在气候环境问题上加强国际合作。在维护自由贸易体制的问题上，俄欧也反对美国使世界贸易组织(WTO)争端解决机制瘫痪的做法。在中东问题上，俄欧虽然战略利益不同，但都不希望地区紧张局势升级。美伊冲突剧、中东局势恶化会给欧盟和俄罗斯的安全、经济、社会带来一系列消极后果，双方都希望中东早日恢复平静。俄欧反对美国退出伊朗核问题全面协议和对伊朗进行新制裁，防止伊朗走向极端。在吸纳乌克兰为北约成员国的问题上，欧盟内部持反对意见的国家占多数。各方博弈之下，乌克兰问题的战略均势仍然存在。战争是个“伪命题”，为此要警惕的是某些人和某些国家将“伪命题”篡改为真的操弄。俄乌之间并非没有战争风险，但绝对不存在俄罗斯“入侵”乌克兰的可能，拿这种问题离间中俄关系，无耻且下作。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34861,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/download_\u526f\u672c-37.jpg?fit=700%2C380&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":38555,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/03\/09\/%e6%be%a4%e9%80%a3%e6%96%af%e5%9f%ba%ef%bc%9a%e5%b7%b2%e5%81%9a%e5%a5%bd%e5%9c%8b%e5%9c%9f%e5%85%a8%e9%9d%a2%e6%b7%aa%e9%99%b7%ef%bc%8c%e5%a0%85%e6%8c%81%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f%e5%b0%8d%e4%bf%84%e6%8a%97\/","url_meta":{"origin":34826,"position":0},"title":"\u6fa4\u9023\u65af\u57fa\uff1a\u5df2\u505a\u597d\u570b\u571f\u5168\u9762\u6dea\u9677\uff0c\u5805\u6301\u9577\u671f\u5c0d\u4fc4\u6297\u6230\uff01","date":"March 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