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2,567上周推迟新政府成立仪式后，周一，阿富汗塔利班传来最新消息，将邀请中国、俄罗斯、伊朗、土耳其、巴基斯坦、卡塔尔六国，出席新政府的成立仪式。 今天下午，阿塔发言人证实，他们已经占领了潘杰希尔的最后一个据点，并完全控制了潘杰希尔。抵抗力量成员对外发声称，潘杰希尔虽已陷落，但小马苏德在一个安全的地方，萨利赫已经撤往塔吉克斯坦，他们将继续领导“政府”。这也坐实了此前外界的猜测：阿塔将会在完全统一后，宣布组建新政府。 不过塔利班虽然已经完成统一，但其国内形势仍然危机四伏。首先，阿富汗国库空虚，90亿美元的外汇储备基本都在国外，外界估计，阿塔能动用的现金只有900万到1800万左右，没有现金很难打开局面。而且接下来将很快引发阿富汗本币贬值，通货膨胀，普通民众生活都可能成问题。而联合国此前也强调，受极端天气和国内局势影响，阿富汗很可能会迎来一轮粮食危机。 阿塔想要稳住其国内形势，必须要寻求外部援助。想要获得援助，其新政府就必须获得国际社会认可。但是塔利班的成功让美国颜面尽失，此前白宫已经明确表态，不会放松对其制裁。欧洲方面，虽然德法迫于难民压力以及未完成的撤离工作，不得不与塔利班展开对话，但并没有打算承认新政府。 阿塔此次邀请这六国参加其新政府成立仪式，在某种程度上是认为，以中俄为首的六国对阿富汗敌意并不重，最有可能率先承认其政权，或者愿意对其进行援助支持。那么谁会最先承认塔利班创建的新政权？ 有一个事情需要注意，上周六，巴基斯坦三军情报局局长法兹-哈米德受邀率团访问喀布尔。很明显，塔利班将希望寄托于巴基斯坦。其实如果回顾阿富汗近30多年的历史，巴基斯坦对其崛起至关重要。塔利班最早就发迹于阿巴边境的难民营，随后巴基斯坦向CIA引荐，美巴共同扶植塔利班反苏。 1996-2001年，阿塔第一次执政，巴基斯坦也是仅有的三个支持塔利班政权的国家之一。塔利班政权第一次被赶下台后，阿塔高级人员大多躲藏在巴基斯坦山区里。即使在美国的指责下，巴基斯坦情报机构也没有断掉与塔利班的联系。多数人认为，阿富汗三军情报局一直都在支持塔利班。 上周六双方的会晤，可以说是老朋友会面。阿塔应该是在寻求让巴情报机构牵头，说服巴基斯坦政府承认新生的阿富汗政权，并向其提供援助。 至于中俄，则是塔利班的重要拉拢对象。塔利班也清楚，中俄都不可能轻易承认其政权。但争取中俄对阿塔来说意义重大。中俄是国际社会上少有的能联合反对西方势力的国家。因此当阿富汗面临美国封锁时，中俄的态度至关重要。除此之外，中国强大的基建能力和经济开发能力，也是他们所渴求的。此前，阿塔已经数次请求中国参与阿富汗建设，这两日，阿塔又提出，希望中国将中巴经济走廊，延伸到阿富汗。 中俄目前并没有完全放松对阿富汗局势的警惕，尤其是恐怖主义外泄的威胁。虽然阿塔完成了统一，但阿富汗国内藏有恐怖分子几乎是众所周知的事情，阿塔接下来如何对待其国内的恐怖主义势力，将是中俄重点关注的事情，只有消除了这个威胁，中俄才有可能放下戒心与其做朋友。至于中俄是否会出席塔利班新政府的揭幕仪式，咱们还是等外交部的回应吧。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28573,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/2021_0903_aa6fe2cdj00qyuswd0012d000hs0099p_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C364&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":29271,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/09\/18\/%e6%b2%92%e6%9c%89%e5%9c%8b%e5%ae%b6%e6%9c%83%e8%a8%aa%e5%95%8f%e9%98%bf%e5%a1%94%ef%bc%9f%e8%aa%b0%e6%96%99%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%80%e5%80%8b%e8%a8%aa%e5%95%8f%e5%9c%98%e4%be%86%e5%be%97%e5%a6%82%e6%ad%a4\/","url_meta":{"origin":28558,"position":0},"title":"\u6c92\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u6703\u8a2a\u554f\u963f\u5854\uff1f\u8ab0\u6599\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u8a2a\u554f\u5718\u4f86\u5f97\u5982\u6b64\u5feb\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u50bb\u773c\u4e86","date":"September 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