\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f53\u4e0b\u75ab\u60c5\u6025\u5267\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u65e5\u65b0\u589e\u75c5\u4f8b\u5df2\u7ecf\u63a5\u8fd120\u4e07\u4f8b\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u8fd9\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u906d\u5230\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u52a8\u8361\u5c40\u52bf\u52a0\u5267\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5374\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u987e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e00\u624b\u6276\u690d\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u201c\u6c11\u9009\u653f\u6743\u201d\u6b7b\u6d3b\uff0c\u5ba3\u5e03\u4ece\u8be5\u56fd\u64a4\u519b\u3002\u8fd9\u65e0\u7591\u4ee4\u5916\u754c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u201c\u7ef4\u62a4\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u7a33\u5b9a\u201d\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u8d28\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u6218\u7565\u7684\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u88ab\u5916\u754c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e72\u6d89\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002\u800c\u534e\u76db\u987f\u9762\u5bf9\u8bf8\u591a\u56fd\u5185\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u5374\u675f\u624b\u65e0\u7b56\uff0c\u8ba9\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9738\u6743\u8870\u843d\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u65e5\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u300a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u7f51\u7ad9\u6240\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u4e0a\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u73b0\u8c61\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ece\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u64a4\u519b\u3001\u5e76\u8ba1\u5212\u4e8e\u4eca\u5e74\u5e95\u4ece\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u64a4\u519b\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5168\u7403\u9738\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49—\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u771f\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5373\u5c06\u8d70\u5411\u7ec8\u7ed3\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8ff9\u8c61\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u73b0\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u95ee\u9898\u91cd\u91cd\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u53cd\u590d\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6062\u590d\u4e4f\u529b\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u77db\u76fe\u7ee7\u7eed\u88ab\u6fc0\u5316\u3001\u52a0\u4e4b\u8d8a\u53d1\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4e24\u6781\u5316\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5df2\u7ecf\u9677\u5165\u591a\u91cd\u5371\u673a\u6ce5\u6f6d\u4e2d\u3001\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5df2\u65e0\u6cd5\u81ea\u62d4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5185\u90e8\u5371\u673a\u7684\u65e0\u89e3\uff0c\u5bf9\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u6218\u7565\u6240\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u8a00\u800c\u55bb\u7684\u3002\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u6cbf\u7528\u7279\u6717\u666e\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u5927\u56fd\u7ade\u4e89\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6311\u8d77\u4e00\u573a\u201c\u65b0\u51b7\u6218\u201d\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u8ba9\u76df\u53cb\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u6df1\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u6765\u786e\u4fdd\u5176\u9738\u6743\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u7a33\u56fa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u867d\u7136\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u6405\u5f97\u4e00\u7247\u4e4c\u70df\u7634\u6c14\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7b49\u6218\u7565\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u6b63\u9762\u521a\u3001\u8fd8\u6709\u76df\u53cb\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e16\u754c\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u8d28\u7591\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u5927\uff0c\u8ba9\u62dc\u767b\u6cbb\u4e0b\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5df2\u65e0\u6cd5\u91cd\u590d\u51b7\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u521d\u671f\u90a3\u79cd\u4e00\u547c\u767e\u5e94\u3001\u6216\u8005\u6240\u5411\u62ab\u9761\u7684\u8f89\u714c\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u7efc\u5408\u56fd\u529b\u7684\u8870\u9000\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b98\u50da\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8d8a\u53d1\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u519b\u867d\u7136\u62e5\u6709\u72ec\u6b65\u5168\u7403\u7684\u7ecf\u8d39\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5e38\u89c4\u519b\u4e8b\u4f18\u52bf\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7b49\u6218\u7565\u5bf9\u624b\u6240\u8ffd\u5e73\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u8d85\u8d8a\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u6838\u6b66\u5e93\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5c31\u6210\u4e3a\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7ef4\u6301\u519b\u4e8b\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u6700\u6709\u6548\u738b\u724c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5df2\u843d\u5230\u4f9d\u8d56\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u624d\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u519b\u4e8b\u4f18\u52bf\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u5374\u7a81\u7136\u505a\u51fa\u4e00\u9879\u4ee4\u76df\u53cb\u819b\u53e3\u7ed3\u820c\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff1a\u5c65\u884c\u5728\u7ade\u9009\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u8ba1\u5212\u5411\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u5ba3\u5e03\u7f8e\u56fd\u201c\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u201d\u539f\u5219\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u4e0a\u53f0\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u5904\u7406\u5185\u90e8\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u52e4\u52e4\u6073\u6073\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5374\u4e4f\u5584\u53ef\u9648\u3002\u6700\u6d45\u663e\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u671f\u95f4\u6240\u9057\u7559\u7684\u3001\u5305\u62ec\u56fd\u5185\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5728\u5185\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u91cd\u5927\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u6709\u6548\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u62dc\u767b\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u65e0\u6240\u4f5c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5176\u652f\u6301\u7387\u63a5\u8fde\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u62dc\u767b\u672c\u4eba\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u547d\u8fd0\u6784\u6210\u5a01\u80c1\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u73b0\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5df2\u7ecf\u6b63\u5f0f\u5ba3\u5e03\u53c2\u52a0\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c4a\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4e5f\u6b63\u5728\u6469\u62f3\u64e6\u638c\uff0c\u51c6\u5907\u5728\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u51fb\u8d25\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u593a\u5f97\u5728\u56fd\u4f1a\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6743\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u62dc\u767b\u6ca1\u6709\u60f3\u529e\u6cd5\u6539\u53d8\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u9893\u52bf\uff0c\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u4e43\u81f32024\u5e74\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u4ed6\u6240\u5728\u7684\u6267\u653f\u515a\u5c06\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8f93\u5f97\u5f88\u60e8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5fc5\u987b\u91c7\u53d6\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5fc5\u8981\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u6765\u633d\u6551\u81ea\u8eab\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0b\u6ed1\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5c31\u5305\u62ec\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u6b64\u524d\u5728\u7ade\u9009\u671f\u95f4\u5c31\u505a\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e00\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u65f6\u5019\u505a\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e00\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u9009\u6c11\u77e5\u9053\u4ed6\u662f\u4e2a\u201c\u5b88\u4fe1\u7528\u201d\u7684\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u63d0\u5347\u81ea\u8eab\u652f\u6301\u7387\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u662f\u5f88\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u60f3\u8981\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u8fd8\u5f97\u5f81\u6c42\u76df\u53cb\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5f88\u591a\u65e0\u6838\u7684\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f1e\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u505a\u8d3c\u5fc3\u865a\u7684\u65e5\u672c\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u56e0\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u6591\u6591\u52a3\u8ff9\u800c\u906d\u5230\u4ed6\u56fd\u62a5\u590d\uff0c\u6bd4\u8c01\u90fd\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u591f\u8eb2\u8fdb\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6838\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f1e\u91cc\u9762\u4fdd\u5e73\u5b89\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u4e00\u76f4\u90fd\u5728\u6781\u529b\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u8ba1\u5212\u5ba3\u5e03\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u5e76\u975e\u95ee\u95ee\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\u7b54\u4e0d\u7b54\u5e94\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e8b\u5148\u201c\u5f81\u6c42\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u201d\u3002\u636e\u300a\u65e5\u672c\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u524d\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u4f69\u91cc\u5728\u5185\u7684\u591a\u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u9ad8\u5b98\uff0c\u65e5\u524d\u5728\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u4e00\u5c01\u516c\u5f00\u4fe1\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u515a\u4e0d\u8981\u53cd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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2,675美国当下疫情急剧反弹，日新增病例已经接近20万例的高位，这让美国的国家治理能力遭到广泛质疑。与此同时，在阿富汗动荡局势加剧之际，拜登却根本就不顾美国一手扶植起来的“民选政权”死活，宣布从该国撤军。这无疑令外界对美国“维护国际体系稳定”的能力，产生必要的质疑。 阿富汗战略的失败，被外界认为是美国干涉主义的终结。而华盛顿面对诸多国内和国际问题却束手无策，让“美国霸权衰落论”的可信度大幅上升。日前，美国《国家利益》杂志网站所发表的文章，通过对美国在多个领域上的失败现象进行分析，最终得出的结论就是：“美国从阿富汗撤军、并计划于今年底从伊拉克撤军，是美国全球霸权主义—如果它真的存在的话，即将走向终结的最新迹象”。 显然，美国现在国内问题重重，新冠疫情的反复爆发，经济恢复乏力、社会矛盾继续被激化、加之越发严重的政治两极化状态，让美国实际上已经陷入多重危机泥潭中、似乎已无法自拔。 美国内部危机的无解，对华盛顿的对外战略所形成的影响，也是不言而喻的。拜登政府沿用特朗普时期的大国竞争战略，通过挑起一场“新冷战”的方式，让盟友进一步加深对美国的安全依赖，以此来确保其霸权地位的稳固。 不过，拜登政府虽然将这个世界搅得一片乌烟瘴气，不过，俄罗斯等战略对手的正面刚、还有盟友对美国主导世界能力的质疑不断增大，让拜登治下的美国，已无法重复冷战结束初期那种一呼百应、或者所向披靡的辉煌了。 美国综合国力的衰退、以及官僚主义的越发严重，导致美军虽然拥有独步全球的经费投入，但其常规军事优势正在被俄罗斯等战略对手所追平、甚至超越。在这样的情况下，美国庞大的核武库，自然就成为华盛顿维持军事优势的最有效王牌。 然而，就是美国已落到依赖核武器才能维持军事优势之际，拜登政府却突然做出一项令盟友膛口结舌的决定：履行在竞选期间的承诺，计划向全世界宣布美国“不首先使用核武器”原则的决定。 众所周知，拜登上台以来，在处理内部和国际事务方面，看似勤勤恳恳但实际上却乏善可陈。最浅显的例子就是，特朗普期间所遗留的、包括国内和国际在内的很多重大问题，至今都无法得到有效解决。拜登团队的无所作为，导致其支持率接连下跌，甚至已经对拜登本人的政治命运构成威胁。 现如今，前总统特朗普已经正式宣布参加下一届美国总统选举，而且共和党也正在摩拳擦掌，准备在中期选举中击败民主党，重新夺得在国会的主导权。在这一背景下，如果拜登没有想办法改变目前的政治颓势，在接下来的中期选举乃至2024年的总统选举，他所在的执政党将有可能会输得很惨。 所以，拜登必须采取一系列必要措施，来挽救自身不断下滑的支持率，其中就包括不首先使用核武器的承诺。毕竟，拜登此前在竞选期间就做出这一承诺，如果这时候做出这一决定，至少可以让选民知道他是个“守信用”的总统，这对提升自身支持率来说，是很有帮助的。 不过，美国政府想要做出不使用核武器的决策，还得征求盟友的意见。毕竟，世界上很多无核的盟友，都需要美国核保护伞的保护。尤其是做贼心虚的日本，为了避免因自己在历史上的斑斑劣迹而遭到他国报复，比谁都希望能够躲进美国的核保护伞里面保平安。所以，在美国是否承诺不首先使用核武器的问题上，日本一直都在极力反对。 所以，拜登计划宣布美国不首先使用核武器的决定，首先并非问问美国民众答不答应，而是事先“征求日本的意见”。据《日本时报》报道，包括前国防部长佩里在内的多名美国前高官，日前在媒体上发表一封公开信，要求日本政党不要反对美国可能宣布的不首先使用核武器的立场。 尽管日本是目前世界上第一个、也是唯一遭受过核打击的国家，但遭受核打击所留下的长久性痛苦，让日本不想再挨第二次核打击了。所以，日本必须极力说服美国，放弃宣布不首先使用核武器的决定。毕竟，在日本人看来，只有美国长期保持先发制人的核打击政策，才能有效阻遏他国针对日本有可能的核打击。 从客观上来讲，日本的态度不是决定拜登是否履行承诺的主要因素。拜登之所以想在这时候宣布这一决定，除了政治因素外，还有军事方面上的考虑因素存在。毕竟，随着俄罗斯等战略竞争对手的新一代导弹武器、尤其是可以装载核弹头的高超音速导弹大规模列装，让美国耗资巨大的导弹防御系统基本已形同虚设。 换句话说，美俄一旦爆发类似于冷战时期的核对峙，美国有可能会因为在高超音速导弹方面的缺陷，而无法维持其对他国核领域上的优势。在这一背景下，美国如果继续利用其核武库对他国实施核讹诈，结果只能是自取其辱。 现如今，美国衰落的迹象正日趋明显，且不说与强大对手打一场大国战争，就算是进行一场大规模军事对抗，估计也有点心有余而力不足了。因此，拜登政府如果真的宣布不首先使用核武器的决定，则说明美国可能因为实力的不济，努力想避免与俄罗斯等大国进行核军备竞赛、或者对抗了。 拜登政府如果承诺不首先使用核武器，势必导致美国的核威慑能力不可避免地被削弱。结果对长期依赖美国核保护伞的日本而言，就是一杯难咽的苦酒。不过，日本说到底也只是美国的一个仆从国，从来只有美国告诉日本该怎么做，什么时候看见过日本告诉美国该怎么做了？ 所以说。佩里等美国前高官发出公开信，要求日本支持拜登政府有关不首先使用核武器的决定，其实就是做做样子，让日本人感觉到美国“很尊重”他们的意见而已。至于在美国是否决定做出不首先使用核武器承诺问题上，日本说了不算。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26647,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Capture_\u526f\u672c-5.jpg?fit=700%2C373&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":15064,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/03\/19\/%e5%93%88%e9%87%8c%e6%96%af%e6%89%8d%e6%98%af%e7%b8%bd%e7%b5%b1%ef%bc%9f%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%9c%80%e6%96%b0%e6%b0%91%e8%aa%bf%e5%87%ba%e4%be%86%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e8%ae%93%e6%8b%9c\/","url_meta":{"origin":26631,"position":0},"title":"\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u624d\u662f\u7e3d\u7d71\uff1f\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u65b0\u6c11\u8abf\u51fa\u4f86\u4e86\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u8b93\u62dc\u767b\u4e0b\u4e0d\u4e86\u53f0","date":"March 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