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\u3000\u3000\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u518d\u670910\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u80af\u5b9a\u8d85\u8fc7\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e2d\u4fc4\u5229\u76ca\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u878d\u5408\u5145\u5206\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5c31\u6709\u88ab\u7f8e\u56fd\u79bb\u95f4\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u52a1\u5fc5\u8981\u672a\u96e8\u7ef8\u7f2a\u3002<\/p>\n

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2,428普京要发财了! 　　据环球时报报道，今年上半年，中国为俄罗斯最大农产品出口国。同时，俄罗斯已超越澳大利亚、阿根廷和巴西成为对华牛肉最大出口国。俄专家预测，未来5年内，这一数字还将进一步增长。 　　俄罗斯到底向中国出口了多少牛肉呢? 　　根据俄新社7月30日援引俄罗斯农业银行的报告称，俄罗斯今年第一季度共计出口6500 吨牛肉，几乎是上一年的2.5倍，其中向中国出口约3700 吨牛肉，较去年同期增长19倍。中国市场在俄罗斯牛肉出口总量中所占份额已经超过55%。 　　这个数字看起来不小，增幅也很大，但实际上相比绝对值还是太小了!因为，中国2020年进口牛肉高达212万吨，这一年大概也就一两万吨的规模和200多万吨相比连1%都不到。 　　其实，过去中国几乎不从俄罗斯进口牛肉。那么，为什么现在突然大规模增加从俄罗斯进口牛肉呢? 　　最根本的原因就在于，基于众所周知的因素，中国限制了澳大利亚对华牛肉出口。澳大利亚原来是中国进口牛肉最多的国家，在中国限制之后其对华出口大幅萎缩。 　　澳大利亚对华牛肉出口大幅减少，但中国牛肉需求却在高速增长，这个时候恰好给了俄罗斯开辟中国牛肉市场的机会。 　　当然，另外的对华牛肉出口大国也都遇到了问题，譬如阿根廷不得不因为自己的通胀而减少牛肉出口以平抑其国内物价，巴西则是因为卫生条件不过关导致其商誉损失对华牛肉出口下降。 　　在占豪看来，对俄罗斯来说，这简直是找到了发财的门道。为什么这么说呢?答案很简单，中国14亿的需求市场太强大了，中国自己生产的肉制品根本供不应求，所以不得不大量进口。 　　根据中国海关最新公布的数据显示，在受到疫情严重影响的情况下，2020年中国仍进口了991万吨肉类，同比增长60%，其中猪肉(含杂碎)进口量达573万吨，同比大幅增长79%;牛肉进口212万吨，同比增长30%。 　　哪怕按现今年俄罗斯对华牛肉出口规模，也才有一万多吨，连中国牛肉进口市场的1%都不到。根据俄普列汉诺夫经济大学专家帕纳先科的说法，俄罗斯牛肉的年需求量为194万吨，而出口量在2万吨左右，这也就意味着俄罗斯对中国出口像牛肉这种农产品的空间巨大。 　　根据俄罗斯农业部的消息，2021年上半年俄罗斯向中国出口农产品的总额已超过19亿美元。中国为俄罗斯最大农产品出口国，排名第二的是土耳其，其次是韩国。俄罗斯上半年向海外市场出口粮食总额150亿美元，相比去年同期增长18%。 　　上述这些数据说明什么?说明两点： 　　一、中国的消费市场真的太大了，那是消费的海洋，而且绝对是空间无限，未来增量空间巨大。想想看，当我们的城市人口再增加几亿人会发生什么? 　　二、俄罗斯对华农产品出口的空间非常巨大。为什么?因为俄罗斯地大物博，那么大面积的国土，人口那么少，在工业不够发达的情况下干哪个行业最赚钱?毫无疑问是干农业!俄罗斯只需要大规模养殖牛羊猪这种农产品，以及大规模种植农作物，尔后对华出口，那市场空间之大不敢想象。 　　2020年，中国进口农产品总额高达1708.0亿美元，同比增14.0%。想想看，按这个速度，中国农产品每年都增长200亿美元以上，而且越增越多，这当然是战略性机遇。 　　那么，俄罗斯在中国市场占有率怎么样呢?2021年上半年，俄罗斯对华农产品出口总额仅有19亿美元，这个比例在中国的农产品市场中占比太小了。 　　中国从美国进口农产品有多少呢?中国2021年上半年从美国进口农产品高达1360.1亿元，合美元超过200亿美元，是俄罗斯对华农产品出口的10倍还多。 　　中俄关系非常好，如果俄罗斯能向中国大量供应农产品，在同等条件下，中国一定会优先购买。试想，中国一年仅仅增量就超过200亿美元，这对俄罗斯来说是多大的空间啊! 　　那么，既然中国这么大市场，俄罗斯又有那么多土地，怎么俄罗斯在中国农产品市场的份额那么小呢? 　　其实，最根本的原因就在于，俄罗斯的从业人口太少了!也就是说，虽然俄罗斯有得天独厚的资源，又有中国这么大的市场需求，但俄罗斯人的生意头脑实在太差了，也不善于经营，他们甚至根本没有注意这些。 　　而且，俄罗斯虽然土地广阔，但他们的人口主要生活在西部地区，中部、东部地区都是广阔而荒无人烟的土地，土地根本没有开发利用，这其实严重影响了俄罗斯经济的发展。 　　占豪认为，俄罗斯完全可以和中国、朝鲜合作，在中部、东部广大地区大规模开发农业，包括农业种植和畜牧养殖，这绝对是个大生意。 　　一方面，中国市场极其巨大，急需稳定的供应市场来保证农产品的供应;另一方面，俄罗斯经济急需新的增长点;与此同时朝鲜深受制裁之苦，经济上、社会福利上缺口巨大。 　　在这种情况下，俄罗斯出土地、中国出管理和市场、朝鲜出人，三国合作在俄罗斯进行大规模农业种植和畜牧养殖，绝对能做成大生意。 　　试想，一旦这么做，俄罗斯每年税收增加多少?每年对话出口创汇多少?俄罗斯的经济会活跃很多。中俄双边贸易已经突破了1000亿美元，现在的双边贸易目标是2024年达到2000亿美元，这个距离还是有点远的。 　　那么，俄罗斯除了向中国出口除了能源、军事装备外，农产品绝对是有巨大增长空间的发展方向。现在，俄罗斯对华农产品贸易还不足40亿美元，如果到2024年能达到200到300亿美元的水平，那双方距离2024年的目标一定会更近一步。 　　向中国出口农产品显然是普京发财的新门路，但这绝对是澳大利亚的噩梦!因为，澳大利亚也是地大物博人口少，农业发展空间巨大，在这种情况下，中国逐渐对澳大利亚关上大门，对澳大利亚农业来说无疑是长期的重创! 　　然而，对中国来说，在经济上必须支持对华友好国家，尤其发展与俄罗斯的经贸关系对中国战略意义重大。 　　中国与俄罗斯在未来中国GDP超过美国后如何保持长期的友好相处?唯一的办法就是中俄经济上大规模融合，双方利益上统一，这样才能彼此走得更远而不被美国利用，这需要中俄在未来的5到10年做出巨大努力! 　　因为，再有10年，中国经济肯定超过美国，在这种情况下中俄利益如果不融合充分，俄罗斯就有被美国离间的可能，我们务必要未雨绸缪。 　　中国的大机会，普京赶紧出手吧!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25821,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/images_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C384&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":45323,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/07\/23\/%e8%a5%bf%e9%80%b2%e4%b8%8d%e5%be%97%ef%bc%8c%e6%94%b9%e5%90%91%e6%9d%b1%e8%a1%8c%ef%bc%81%e4%bf%84%e9%bb%83%e9%87%91%e5%95%86%e5%ae%a3%e5%b8%83%ef%bc%9a%e5%a2%9e%e5%8a%a0%e5%b0%8d%e4%ba%9e%e6%b4%b2\/","url_meta":{"origin":25806,"position":0},"title":"\u897f\u9032\u4e0d\u5f97\uff0c\u6539\u5411\u6771\u884c\uff01\u4fc4\u9ec3\u91d1\u5546\u5ba3\u5e03\uff1a\u589e\u52a0\u5c0d\u4e9e\u6d32\u9ec3\u91d1\u51fa\u53e3","date":"July 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