<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

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\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\uff0c\u4e14\u770b\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u6298\u817e\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

7,407美国高官在5月底6月初连续与我们进行了通话。这个月25、26日，常务副国务卿又自己上门，我们给安排到了天津见面。三番五次主动找上门，从外界的感觉上，似乎是美国人在着急什么。 这么说是有根据的。7月3日，王毅国务委员在接受媒体采访时谈到了中美关系，他的意思表达地很明白，我们态度开放，但是美国得先做出个样子来，展现出他们的诚意才行。外交部发言人赵立坚在回应有关“美国无意恢复中美战略经济对话”的问题时，直接言简意赅地表示，美国想多了。这个话的延伸解读就是：我们自己没想过要恢复，美国人给自己加戏。 现在的态势很明确，美国人确实很着急见我们，那他们到底在急什么？粗浅来看有3个大问题。 第一，美国经济。美国经济确实出了问题，而且还不小。值得注意的是，5月、6月给我们打电话，都是在他们的经济数据，尤其是CPI公布之后。而且是财长、贸易代表、商务部长轮番来，反复强调双方贸易、投资的重要性。这与前政府时代的蛮横、霸道的态度还是有所区别的。为何？数据给逼的。通货膨胀连续大幅超过预期，4月份超过5%之后，一路飙升，美国国内物价正在以肉眼可见的速度上升，尽管美联储反复强调这是暂时的，但是加息的压力正在逐渐累积。 而幕后推手是谁？就是他们自己。2017年美国挑起了中美贸易战，大幅增加关税。本意是想打击中国制造业，把中国商品逐出美国市场，逼迫中国让步。结果没想到，涨价的成本被美国老百姓全盘接收，增加的关税成了通货膨胀的助推器。我们的商品成了输入型通胀的载体，美国人结结实实吃了自己的一记左勾拳。 怎么办？想来找中国商量，想想办法，让商品降价，降低美国通胀，但是还想找个台阶，甚至想占点便宜。这才是他们急急忙忙跑来找我们的直接原因。套用赵立坚的话来说真的是：美国想多了。 第二，地区安全。这一个方面美国其实很纠结。从阿富汗撤军、从伊拉克撤军，都是在执行战略收缩。根源在于美国的实力已经不允许像之前这么浪下去。而撤出这些经营已久的地区，美国人还是想体面地撤退，希望撤走之后，地区能够继续保持稳定。尤其是中东地区，关系到美国的石油霸权命脉，一旦这里失控，美国人再想通过控制石油阀门控制全世界就难了。另外一个要点就是伊朗。美国希望重返伊核协议，在谈判的关键时刻，中伊签署了谈判多年的全面合作协议，时间跨度长达25年。至此，中国大大增加了在中东地区的发言权。美国人想维护中东的利益，中国的身影他们绕不过去。另外，在全球反恐、气候变化等“政治正确”的领域，他们少不了需要与我们保持接触寻求合作。 第三，美元霸权。上面两个原因，是美国相对现实的考虑，而更长远来看，美国真正担忧的是美元霸权的问题。美国之所以能独步天下，普遍认为是依靠科技、军事、美元三大支柱。而核心就是美元。有了钱，可以投入巨额资金支持各种科技创新；有了钱，可以投入大量的经费研究最新的军事装备军事技术。然后再用科技和军事来保卫美元的低位，形成良性循环。 一旦这个循环被打破，科技军事失去了资金投入，美元也地位不保。 现代发行货币，其实靠的是信心和信用支撑。美元之所以全世界通行无阻，从最通俗的观点来看，就是大家相信美国依然是世界上最强大的国家，是讲信用的，借给他钱是可以稳定获得收益的。 一旦世界各国对美国失去了信心，认定他们不再是世界霸主，美元的国际货币地位也很大概率随即失去，抛售美元国债、直接本币交易等等事件就随之来临。这对美国人来说，无法接受。 这跟中国有什么关系？现在，美国国债总额已经到了28.5万美元，几轮大放水下来，美元成了洪水猛兽，充斥着市场。而各国经济都受到了疫情影响，自顾不暇，根本拿不出钱再去买美国国债，替美国擦屁股。美国财长耶伦表态，如果不赶紧采取措施，美国最早将在8月份出现债务违约。一旦违约，美国的国家信用将受到严重打击，建立在国际信用之上的美国经济也将面临崩溃的危机。 2008-2009年经济危机的时候，我们慷慨地给美国人解了围，当时是中美一起扛过了全球经济危机，（当然，欧洲也出了大力气）这次，美国人又想来找我们，但是吧，这次的情况已经与当时有很大不同。如果美国不拿出切切实实的诚意，真心实意地让利给我们，红口白牙可能很难让我们满意。 我们不急，国内还有很多事情要做，各种事情也很多，顾不上他们。正如王毅这个月初说的，我们最重要的，还是做好自己的事情。 剩下的，且看他们自己折腾吧。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25064,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/images_\u526f\u672c-19.jpg?fit=700%2C384&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":34141,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/12\/02\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%9c%8b%e5%85%a7%e7%89%a9%e5%83%b9%e6%9a%b4%e6%bc%b2%ef%bc%8c%e6%b1%82%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e4%b8%89%e4%bb%b6%e4%ba%8b%e6%83%b3%e6%8a%8a%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e8%bc%b8%e5%87%ba%e4%b8%ad\/","url_meta":{"origin":25036,"position":0},"title":"\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5167\u7269\u50f9\u66b4\u6f32\uff0c\u6c42\u4e2d\u570b\u4e09\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60f3\u628a\u901a\u8139\u8f38\u51fa\u4e2d\u570b\uff1f\u80fd\u6210\u529f\u55ce\uff1f","date":"December 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