\u5f88\u591a\u7f51\u53cb\u90fd\u611f\u89c9\u5230\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd9\u53cd\u534e\u52bf\u5934\u5c5e\u5b9e\u6709\u70b9\u731b\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u62dc\u767b\u4e0a\u53f0\u524d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u201c\u8054\u76df\u7b56\u7565\u5bf9\u534e\u65bd\u538b\u201d\uff0c\u767d\u5bab\u9ad8\u6548\u6267\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u53cd\u534e\u5916\u4ea4\u52a8\u4f5c\uff0c\u8fde\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u957f\u960e\u5b66\u901a\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u7ed9\u4e2d\u56fd\u9020\u6210\u7684\u538b\u529b\u8fdc\u5927\u4e8e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53cd\u534e\u6218\u7565\u7684\u6267\u884c\u8109\u7edc\u53ef\u4ee5\u603b\u7ed3\u4e09\u7ba1\u9f50\u4e0b\uff1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u897f\u65b9\u53cd\u534e\u8054\u76df\u3001\u6784\u5efa\u4e1c\u65b9\u9632\u4e2d\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u62c6\u89e3\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fa\u6709\u76df\u53cb\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe1 \u62dc\u767b\u4e0a\u53f0\u540e\u9891\u9891\u5bf9\u534e\u51fa\u624b<\/p>\n

\u5728\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u9635\u8425\u91cc\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5148\u662f\u6311\u62e8\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u8d38\u6765\u5f80\u751a\u5bc6\u7684\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u660e\u663e\u7684\u53cd\u534e\u5916\u4ea4\u8868\u6001\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u717d\u52a8\u90bb\u56fd\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u5728\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5e72\u6d89\u4e2d\u56fd\u5185\u653f\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u66f4\u662f\u4f7f\u5c3d\u6b6a\u62db\u51bb\u7ed3\u4e86\u8270\u96be\u8c08\u52248\u5e74\u800c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u300a\u4e2d\u6b27\u5168\u9762\u6295\u8d44\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c0f\u5708\u5b50\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u96c6\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u5f00\u4e86\u4e2a\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u5cf0\u4f1a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u5728\u8054\u5408\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u5c31\u6e2f\u3001\u7586\u3001\u5357\u6d77\u3001\u4e1c\u6d77\u95ee\u9898\u731b\u6279\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u81f3\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u91cc\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u53cd\u534e\u8054\u76df\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e1c\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u9635\u8425\u91cc\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5148\u662f\u8ba9\u59cb\u7ec8\u5728\u53f0\u6d77\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u66a7\u6627\u4e0d\u6e05\u7684\u65e5\u672c\u660e\u786e\u8868\u793a\u4e86\u201c\u5bf9\u53f0\u6d77\u548c\u5e73\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u5173\u5207\u201d\u548c\u201c\u51fa\u5175\u5e72\u9884\u53f0\u6d77\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u8ba9\u6587\u5728\u5bc5\u8868\u6001\u201c\u7ef4\u62a4\u53f0\u6d77\u548c\u5e73\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u5c06\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7d27\u5bc6\u5408\u4f5c\u201d\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u56fd\u5185\u5185\u90e8\u65bd\u538b\u8feb\u4f7f\u4eb2\u534e\u7684\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u603b\u7edf\u675c\u7279\u5c14\u7279\u5c31\u5357\u6d77\u95ee\u9898\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u558a\u8bdd\u201c\u5bf8\u6b65\u4e0d\u8ba9\u9664\u975e\u6740\u4e86\u6211\u201d\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u4e1c\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u5927\u8086\u6e32\u67d3\u6211\u56fd\u8d44\u52a9\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u79d1\u5174\u75ab\u82d7\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\u6548\u529b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u4e2d\u56fd-\u4e1c\u76df\u5728\u9632\u75ab\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u62c9\u62e2\u53bb\u5e74\u88ab\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u8fb9\u5883\u66b4\u63cd\u7684\u5370\u5ea6\u8054\u5408\u519b\u6f14\uff0c\u81f3\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u4e1c\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u91cc\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u9632\u4e2d\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u8bf4\u662f\u9632\u4e2d\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53cd\u534e\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4e1c\u65b9\u62c9\u62e2\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u6587\u5316\u9886\u57df\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8f83\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6765\u5f80\u5341\u5206\u5bc6\u5207\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u534e\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u575a\u51b3\uff0c\u4f46\u9632\u8303\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u62d3\u5c55\u7684\u5374\u6709\u7740\u60ca\u4eba\u5171\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u56fe2 \u62dc\u767b\u4e3a\u4e86\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8c08\u5224\u4e0d\u65ad\u62c9\u62e2\u5bf9\u624b<\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u56fa\u6709\u76df\u53cb\u5708\u91cc\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5148\u662f\u548c\u4f0a\u6717\u8fbe\u6210\u91cd\u8fd4\u4f0a\u6838\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u518d\u6b21\u5c06\u4f0a\u6717\u77f3\u6cb9\u51fa\u53e3\u7eb3\u5165\u5230\u4e86\u7f8e\u5143\u7ed3\u7b97\u4f53\u7cfb\u5185\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\u7b7e\u8ba2\u7684\u201c25\u5e74\u5168\u9762\u5408\u4f5c\u534f\u8bae\u201d\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7acb\u5373\u5411\u666e\u4eac\u53d1\u51fa\u9080\u8bf7\uff0c\u5728\u5173\u952e\u7684\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u52a0\u5165\u5317\u7ea6\uff0c\u201c\u5317\u6eaa-2\u53f7\u201d\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7ed9\u4e0e\u8ba9\u6b65\uff0c\u6362\u53d6\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u758f\u8fdc\uff0c\u5bf9\u671d\u9c9c\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5219\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86\u5bf9\u8bdd\u9080\u8bf7\uff0c\u627f\u8bfa\u7ed9\u4e88\u9632\u75ab\u7269\u8d44\u7684\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0d\u94c1\u4e86\u5fc3\u8ddf\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d70\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u90a3\u4e48\u62dc\u767b\u5148\u751f\u8981\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8c08\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f\u4ed6\u4e0a\u4efb\u4e4b\u524d\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\u4e2d\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\u4e09\u70b9\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u95ee\u9898\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u519b\u5907\u63a7\u5236\u95ee\u9898\uff1b\u4e09\u662f\u5371\u673a\u7ba1\u63a7\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u56fe3 \u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u71c3\u7709\u4e4b\u6025<\/p>\n

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2,620很多网友都感觉到，今年以来，美国这反华势头属实有点猛，按照拜登上台前确定的“联盟策略对华施压”，白宫高效执行了一系列的反华外交动作，连清华大学国际关系学院院长阎学通都认为“给中国造成的压力远大于特朗普政府”，这些反华战略的执行脉络可以总结三管齐下：组织西方反华联盟、构建东方防中联盟，拆解中国固有盟友。 图1 拜登上台后频频对华出手 在西方国家阵营里，美国先是挑拨和中国经贸来往甚密的澳大利亚和新西兰做出了明显的反华外交表态，同时煽动邻国加拿大和英国在联合国干涉中国内政，而后更是使尽歪招冻结了艰难谈判8年而成功的《中欧全面投资协定》，最后把这些小圈子国家都集合起来开了个七国集团峰会，一起在联合声明中就港、疆、南海、东海问题猛批中国，至此，在西方国家里形成了一个统一的反华联盟。 在东方国家阵营里，美国先是让始终在台海问题上暧昧不清的日本明确表示了“对台海和平问题的严重关切”å’Œ“出兵干预台海”，而后让文在寅表态“维护台海和平稳定的重要性”，“将与美国紧密合作”，同时，通过国内内部施压迫使亲华的菲律宾总统杜特尔特就南海问题向中国喊话“寸步不让除非杀了我”，同时，在东盟内部大肆渲染我国资助东南亚科兴疫苗的保护效力问题，造成中国-东盟在防疫问题上的信任危机，拉拢去年被中国在边境暴揍的印度联合军演，至此，在东方国家里形成了一个统一的防中联盟，说是防中而不是反华是因为美国在东方拉拢的这些国家文化领域和中国较为接近，经济来往十分密切，直接反华的态度并不是很坚决，但防范中国影响力拓展的却有着惊人共识。 图2 拜登为了和中国谈判不断拉拢对手 在中国的固有盟友圈里，美国先是和伊朗达成重返伊核协议的共识，特别是再次将伊朗石油出口纳入到了美元结算体系内，一定程度上削弱了中国、伊朗签订的“25年全面合作协议”，然后立即向普京发出邀请，在关键的乌克兰加入北约，“北溪-2号”问题上给与让步，换取俄罗斯承诺与中国关系的疏远，对朝鲜，拜登则发出了对话邀请，承诺给予防疫物资的援助，总体而言，就是要让这些国家不铁了心跟中国走。 三管齐下，拜登生怕给中国造成的压力还不够大，还指使台湾不断在岛内煽风点火，搞反陆政策和活动来恶心我们，虽然以上这些行为和活动的确给中国造成了巨大压力，但要说能起到多大的效果，效果是否能持久化，估计连拜登本人心里都要打鼓，台湾淡江大学教授林中斌一语道破了拜登的阴谋“他想最后再访华来谈条件”，也就是说，拜登忙活了大半年想达到的目的无非就是想在访华和中国谈判时多拿到一些好处，其实他自己也知道，这些个外部压力再强也不可能对中国造成实质性伤害，毕竟现在的中国内部空前团结、经济飞速发展，任何外部因素都不可能阻断这一过程。 那么拜登先生要和中国谈什么呢？他上任之前和特朗普的辩论中就已经提到了不少，但最核心的是三点：一是气候变化问题；二是军备控制问题；三是危机管控问题。 图3 气候变化问题对美国是燃眉之急 气候变化问题是排在所有会谈问题中的首要位置的，作为中国人可能感觉不深刻，但作为美国人，这段时间来已经有切肤之痛了。6月份以来，席卷美国加拿大的热浪让整个美国中西部几乎成了人间炼狱，每天因为炎热死亡的人数仅次于新冠，连西北部西雅图这种向来清凉的地方极端温度都超过了50度，更别说更南边的加州洛杉矶和内华达了，波特兰国家机场连续出现42度以上高温，大量旅客滞留机场被送入救济站，空调用电量更是激增，去年德州暴风雪100美元一度电的时代又回来了，说现在的美国在水深火热中毫不为过。而这一切问题的源头就是气候变化问题！ 气候变化的核心问题是碳排放控制，但恰恰是一个美国无法单方面解决、全球合作才能应对问题，中国虽然人均碳排放量不如美国，但整体碳排放量占全世界的20%以上排第一，美国想解决气候变化问题没有中国配合没有丝毫可能性，今年4月份，在美日首脑峰会前，拜登就低调派气候特使克里抵达上海访华，但结果好像没听说谈出什么具体条款来，毕竟克里的政治地位较低，我方也只能派遣与之身份匹配的干部迎接，很多事情无法敲定成合约文本，但如果拜登访华就不一样了，很多具体而重大的事情就能敲定下来。美国对气候变化的焦虑心态非常深，急切盼望中国快速削减碳排放量，可能会借着自己现在在国际上比较有利的外交地位和台湾问题，逼迫中国签订一些让步条款，但中国答应的可能性较小，因为这些外交压力基本都是短暂的，忍忍就能过去，但美国却不能继续忍下去，中国今年也很清凉，不着急改变气候。 图4 中导问题和美国没什么好谈的 军备控制问题是所有会谈问题中第二重要的，但也可能是最难达成协议的，美国以往的军备控制问题谈判对象主要是俄罗斯，因为俄罗斯掌握着世界上最强大的核武器库，但正因为是核武器库，在核威慑环境下很难真的派上用场，双方约定削减数量的谈判反而好进行。中国的核武器库远不如美国多，中美没必要谈核武库控制问题，常规武器中的中程导弹控制是美方想谈的话题，包括射程在500千米至8000千米范围内的巡航导弹、弹道导弹、滑翔式飞行器，美国的意图是让中国削减这些武器的数量，最好能达成一个新的《中美中导条约》削减美军亚太压力。但是我国国防部对这种妄想早就给过多次明确不行的回应，中国的常规军事力量本来就不如美国强，唯一的优势点在中程导弹上，特别是解放军还随时面临着台海、东海、南海的国防压力，怎么可能自废武功去削减自己的优势武器，有人认为，如果中国不削减中程导弹，美国也会随之发展，在第一岛链国家大量部署中程导弹，恶化地区安全形势，造成军备竞赛，但实际上，中国的中程导弹已经量产，美国想部署还要研制，成本不是一个数量级，而且中国GDP增长明显优于美国，中国不怕和美国搞军备竞赛，被拖垮的只能是美国，即便是要谈削减，也要等美国钱花的差不多了再说。 图5 拜登的施压-谈判策略大概率流产 危机管控问题是中美第三重要的谈判话题，也是最可能达成协议的谈判话题，近年来，随着中美矛盾的日益增长，双方军队在南海、台海和东海地区不断发生直接的、面对面的较量，双方许多行动具有政治宣示力但并无军事进攻含义，但因为双方只有初步默契并无共识和危机管控机制，极易在前线发生误判，擦枪走火，因此，应当有一套双方都认可的目标识别、驱离、警告的程序性文件规范两国军队行为。 总体而言，拜登遏华的诸多措施都不具备长期效力，中国当前势头发展很好，并不着急与美国谈判达成什么共识，着急的应该是美方而不是中方，未来的拜访访华想在谈判桌上拿到他预期的东西，可能性并不大，安克雷奇的中美会谈就是样板。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24276,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Capture_\u526f\u672c-7.jpg?fit=700%2C385&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":41398,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/05\/04\/%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e5%bd%b1%e9%9f%bf%e5%8a%9b%e5%a4%aa%e5%a4%a7%ef%bc%8c%e6%8b%9c%e7%99%bb%e4%b9%9f%e7%84%a1%e6%b3%95%e6%92%bc%e5%8b%95%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%8b%89%e6%94%8f%e6%90%96%e6%93%ba\/","url_meta":{"origin":24260,"position":0},"title":"\u4e2d\u570b\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u64bc\u52d5\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u62c9\u650f\u6416\u64fa\u570b\u53cd\u83ef\u6ce8\u5b9a\u5931\u6557","date":"May 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