<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

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\n
1. \u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\u5173\u95ed\u53ea\u5177\u6709\u8c61\u5f81\u6027\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u5916\u65b9\u65ad\u4e0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u6b64\u4e3a\u636e\u8f7b\u6613\u770b\u8870\u540e\u8005\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

   \u6211\u4eec\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff1a\u4f46\u51e1\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4e0e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c31\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u8fbe\u6210\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u5176\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u56fd\u5bb6\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u7d0a\u4e71\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6267\u653f\u671f\uff0c\u5173\u95e8\u7684\u4e11\u95fb\u5c31\u65f6\u5e38\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u672a\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u51b3\u7b56\u5c42\u6709\u6240\u60ca\u9192\uff0c\u53cd\u5012\u52a9\u957f\u4e86\u5176\u9a84\u6a2a\u4e4b\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

   \u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u662f\u62dc\u767b\u5728\u653e\u6c34\u201c3\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u201d\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u51c6\u5907\u529b\u63a8\u603b\u4ef7\u503c\u8fbe\u201c1.9\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u201d\u7684\u5927\u57fa\u5efa\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u5206\u6790\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u767d\u5bab\u6b64\u4e3e\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u89e3\u51b3\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7a7a\u5fc3\u5316\u7b49\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\u4f1a\u8ba9\u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u8086\u6cdb\u6ee5\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u56fd\u9645\u6027\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n

   \n

   <\/p>\n

   \n<\/div>\n

   \u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5404\u65b9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\u5373\u5c06\u5173\u95ed\u7684\u4f20\u8a00\u5e94\u4e88\u4ee5\u5e73\u5e38\u5fc3\u770b\u5f85\uff0c\u52ff\u8ddf\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8282\u594f\u4e71\u821e\u3002\u6b8a\u4e0d\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u60ef\u4e8e\u8206\u8bba\u9020\u52bf\uff0c\u5176\u5938\u5927\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5f80\u5f80\u8574\u542b\u7740\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4f01\u56fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

   2\u3001\u7f8e\u503a\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u635f\u5931\u60e8\u91cd\uff0c\u4f46\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5f88\u5c0f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

   \u7f8e\u503a\u4fe1\u7528\u574d\u584c\uff0c\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u4e3a\u8ba1\u4ef7\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u5236\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u56de\u5230\u4ee5\u7269\u6613\u7269\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u88ab\u5f03\u7528\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u3001\u6b27\u5143\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u627f\u62c5\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u57fa\u7840\u8d27\u5e01\uff1f<\/p>\n

   \u7406\u60f3\u662f\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5b9e\u662f\u9aa8\u611f\u7684\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u548c\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea4\u6613\u6df1\u5ea6\u6302\u94a9\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u6253\u7834\u8fd9\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u5f02\u5e38\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

   \n

   <\/p>\n

   \n<\/div>\n

   \u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ef4\u7cfb\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u9738\u6743\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u608d\u7136\u53d1\u52a8\u4e86\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u3001\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u7b49\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u7ed9\u4e00\u4e9b\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u6df1\u91cd\u7684\u707e\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n

   \u8fd9\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u5bd3\u610f\u662f\uff1a\u82e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\uff0c\u5230\u4e86\u88ab\u8feb\u5173\u95e8\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u5929\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u5bf9\u4e0d\u8d77\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u6216\u8005\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u5904\u89d2\u843d\uff0c\u6216\u5c06\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u6218\u4e8b\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

   \u603b\u7ed3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u201c\u4f5c\u8327\u81ea\u7f1a\u201d\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u7ed9\u4e88\u4e86\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u52a0\u901f\u56fd\u9645\u5316\u7684\u6709\u5229\u65f6\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n

   \u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u987b\u8c28\u8bb0\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a\u73b0\u9636\u6bb5\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u5f88\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4ecd\u65e0\u6cd5\u6210\u4e3a\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u6bd4\u80a9\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u8bf4\u8036\u4f26\u7684\u5371\u9669\u6027\u8a00\u8bba\uff0c\u59d1\u4e14\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e24\u515a\u653b\u8ba6\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u4fe1\u53f7\u5427\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

   6,523放水解决不了问题，不过是寅吃卯粮，美国正面临史无前例的债务危机。 近日，在财政部例行会议上，美国财长—耶伦罕见地发出警告，称美国最早可能于8月份违约。她呼吁暂停或者提高债务上限，以避免危机进一步扩大化。 美国当前的债务规模为28.4万亿美元，是2020å¹´GDP总额（约21万亿美元）的1.35倍。若要还清这笔债务，需要3亿多美国人不吃不喝至少为之奋斗一年多，其难度可想而知。 若视债务规模扩大而无所作为，恐造成“技术性”违约。如耶伦所言，除了暂停或者提高债务上限，别无他法。关键是，这招已经被多次滥用，它产生的边际效果呈指数式的递减。 美债违约，美国政府将被迫关门，国家将进入停摆期。更严重的是，持有美债的投资人和机构将“跟风抛售”，这反过来限制了美国继续借债的能力。 换言之，7月31日就是美国的“大限”，是决定其命运的历史时刻。 当然勿低估美国政府的自救能力。已知的是，拜登政府将通过外输民主概念、开放市场、通胀等方式，继续保持所谓的美元的活力。这般做法的好处是隐秘，见效快，或让越南、印度等国家防不胜防。 目前，多国采取了“去美元化”步骤，并取得了积极的进展。其中土耳其与中国达成了60亿美元的本币互换协议，俄罗斯、伊朗等国更是直接拒绝了以美元作为石油交易的计价方式。如此，美元信用坍塌的可能性愈发的真实，美国终究将自己玩脱了。 就美国当下的处境简单地谈几点看法吧。 美国政府部门关闭只具有象征性意义，外方断不可以此为据轻易看衰后者。 我们注意到：但凡民主党与共和党无法就积极的财政政策达成协议，其往往会造成国家制度的紊乱。特朗普执政期，关门的丑闻就时常发生。然而，这不仅未让美国决策层有所惊醒，反倒助长了其骄横之心。 已知的是拜登在放水“3万亿美元”的基础之上，准备力推总价值达“1.9万亿美元”的大基建计划。分析认为，白宫此举无助于解决美国的空心化等深层次问题，相反会让美元大肆泛滥，造成国际性的通货膨胀。 也就是说，各方对于美国政府部门即将关闭的传言应予以平常心看待，勿跟着美国的节奏乱舞。殊不知，美国惯于舆论造势，其夸大的行为往往蕴含着重大的政治企图。 2、美债违约，会让投资人损失惨重，但极端情况发生的概率很小。 美债信用坍塌，会造成以美元为计价单位的国际金融体制失衡，人类很可能回到以物易物的时代。问题是，美元被弃用，人民币、欧元是否能够承担责任，成为新的国际基础货币？ 理想是好的，但现实是骨感的。美元和石油交易深度挂钩，想要打破这其中的联系异常的困难。 已知的是，为了维系自身的霸权，美国悍然发动了伊拉克、阿富汗等战争，给一些发展中国家造成了深重的灾难。 这背后的寓意是：若美国真的资不抵债，到了被迫关门的那一天。那么对不起，在中东、亚洲或者世界的任何一处角落，或将有新的战事发生。 总结一下：美国“作茧自缚”的行为，给予了人民币加速国际化的有利时机。 但我们仍须谨记一个事实：现阶段以至于很长的时间内，人民币仍无法成为与美元比肩的货币。至于说耶伦的危险性言论，姑且认为这是美国两党攻讦升级的一种信号吧。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22420,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/y2Yp-hqqzpku3997548_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":30986,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/10\/18\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%82%b5%e5%8d%b1%e6%a9%9f%e6%88%96%e7%9b%b4%e6%8e%a5%e6%8b%96%e7%b4%af%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%ef%bc%81%e7%be%8e%e8%b2%a1%e9%95%b7%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e5%86%8d%e4%b8%8d%e5%87%ba\/","url_meta":{"origin":22394,"position":0},"title":"\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5371\u6a5f\u6216\u76f4\u63a5\u62d6\u7d2f\u4e2d\u570b\uff01\u7f8e\u8ca1\u9577\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u518d\u4e0d\u51fa\u624b\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5d29\u6f70","date":"October 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