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\n<\/div>\n

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3,121随着拜登政府的开张，新内阁在检讨特朗普时代亚洲政策得失的名目下，开始推出新的亚洲政策和对华战略。 在这个过程中，有一位知名智库的80后女研究员，提出了“小院高墙”战略，逐渐成为多国媒体关注的热点话题。 此人就是“新美国安全中心智库”的网络安全政策和中国数字经济研究员——萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯ã€‚ 小院高墙战略的提出者，萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯ 和老一辈学者相比，萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯åœ¨ç ”究中国问题时，有两个特殊优势： 优势一：基础好 和那些主攻苏联问题，半路出家的中国专家不同。萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯å¤§å­¦æ—¶ä¸»æ”»çš„就是中国文学专业，且得到了学士学位，汉语言基础很强。硕士阶段就读于耶鲁大学的国际关系专业。后公派来华，在北京进行研学活动，能说流利的普通话，堪称新一代的中国通。 优势二：包袱少 出生于1982年的萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯ï¼Œæ¥ä¸­å›½æ—¶çœ‹åˆ°çš„已经是一个走在繁荣道路上的中国。这样反而没有老一辈学者的包袱。老学者们因为曾经对中国的贫困记忆过于强烈，总是带着情绪看中国的快速发展。萨克斯则能避免这种心理落差，更平和地看问题。 在这两个特殊优势的基础上，萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯ä¹Ÿæ‹¥æœ‰åœˆå†…牛人共同的两大优势： 优势一：平台强 新美国安全中心（Center for A New American Security，简称CANS），是一所坐落于华盛顿的智库，创立于2007å¹´2月。该智库虽然标榜自己是跨党派智库，其实民主党背景很深。 该智库的两大创始人，一个是牛津博士，前美国国务院主管亚太事务的助理国务卿库尔特·åŽè´å°”（Kurt M. Campbell）；一个是哈佛超女，奥巴马政府主管政策的前副国防部长米歇尔·å¼—卢努瓦（Michele A. Flournoy）。 其中，库尔特·åŽè´å°”是美国公认的，上一代民主党人中“在亚洲问题上最有才华、最有影响的人”。他是当年“重返亚太”战略的关键设计者，又是今日拜登的核心幕后智囊之一。很多圈内人直接称其为“亚洲政策沙皇”。 美国“亚洲政策沙皇”库尔特·åŽè´å°” 这就意味着，萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯çš„研究成果有较为畅通的上传渠道，易于影响拜登团队的战略选择。 优势二：经历多 进入“新美国”智库之前，她曾担任博斯·è‰¾ä¼¦·æ±‰é˜²åŠ¡é›†å›¢çš„分析师；为美国政府和《财富》杂志(Fortune)ç­‰10家公司提供中国科技发展方面的咨询；还曾在外交关系委员会的亚洲方案和国防部长办公室工作；在哈佛大学东亚学会和美国太平洋司令部发表过研究报告。 正是在这样四个优势的基础上，萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯æå‡ºäº†“小院高墙”战略建议，而且是早在特朗普时期就提出了。 也就是说，“小院高墙”并非拜登胜选后才推出的新策略。而是萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯åœ¨ç‰¹æœ—普任期内提出的反对声音，属于一个经历了三年打磨的完善方案。 当时，美国内部盛行一种观点，将中国看做第二个苏联，甚至是比苏联更严重的对手，一个兼有苏联的地缘政治威胁和日本的地缘经济威胁的综合对手。为此不惜进行全面封锁、挤压，并在学术、市场、军事等多个领域，对中国企业乃至个人进行歧视性限制。至多在一些点问题上和中国进行策略性合作。哪怕因此让第三第四方国家坐收渔利，也在所不惜。 在美国之外，自然更不缺不怕事情搞大的国家和势力。印度、越南和台独分子固然是乐见中美对撞。日本、俄罗斯、新加坡、英国的媒体也一再炒作，“中国将比预期中更快超越美国”，引起了国际上的热议，也加剧了美国内部的躁动。 对这两股声音，萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯éƒ½æå‡ºäº†ä¸åŒçš„看法。 相对于特朗普时期的面打击、点合作，她主张面合作、点对抗。 在2019年撰写的一份报告中，她从数据质量、创业文化、人才构成、AI核心技术等四个方面进行了中美对比。以参与核心AI算法构建的专家为例，中国仅为1.9%，美国为40%以上。她认为，今后相当一段时间内，中国对美国高新科技领域的威胁，远没有某些媒体和国家渲染的那么大。 而在更早的报告中，她还提出了另一个在美国引起争议的话题，那就是她认为，中国在维护信息隐私权的做法上，虽然存在问题，但其实走在了美国的前面，建议美国政府学习。 2020å¹´3月4日美国国会参议院关于TikTok（抖音国际版）数据安全问题的听证会上，萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯æ”¯æŒ“联邦工作人员不应该使用TikTok”，但同时强调，无需全面禁止所有美国公民使用该程序。更不赞成用全面封锁，以及对中国、中国人和中国企业进行歧视性对待的方法搞面对抗。 因为这种对抗成本过大，未知数也更大。无论美国如何挤压中国，挤出去的利益都很难去美国，而是流向其他新兴国家。而挤压的代价主要由美国买单，首先受损的都是美国企业。至于那些获利国家，未必比中国更好对付。因为所有新兴国家，都意味着饥饿感更强。中美之间反而存在很多继续合作的空间。对美国而言，损耗自己的能量，干倒一国换来另一国或另多国的崛起，显然不是最佳选择。 故而，只有摆脱了面打击策略，才能释放出中美之间的合作空间。美国只需要选择锁定若干个与国家安全至关重要的科技点（小院），进行积极保护（高墙），即可实现最符合美国利益也能适当兼顾中国利益的新中美关系。 来自新美国智库的萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯ 如前所述，鉴于新美国智库对民主党尤其是拜登的独特影响力，在特朗普时代遭到搁置的“小院高墙”建议，在拜登时代得到采纳的可能性很大。 假如小院高墙确实将成为美国的政府方针，我们又该如何应对呢？ 2018å¹´10月，萨姆·è¨å…‹æ–¯ç¬¬ä¸€æ¬¡æå‡ºå°é™¢é«˜å¢™ç­–略时，正是特朗普在电信领域发起对华行动的热点时刻。她认为，美国政府应能精确识别、限制中国企业和产品，但应对范围反而不必局限在电信领域。这就说明，小院高墙是个点中有面的策略。针对于此： 第一，要警惕某些国家和势力破坏中美关系的改善，尤其要警惕美国内外反华势力勾结，偷梁换柱，把点对抗重新变成面对抗。 第二，要密切关注美国如何删选、评估关键点。 第三，美国拿关键性的点问题制约中国，不等于我们把主要精力和关键资源用于顶牛式的点对抗。 因为中美竞争绝不仅仅只是军舰、火炮的竞争，更是综合素质、综合实力的竞争。这种竞争不是简单的拼点的数量积累，而是看谁能在面上先实现质变突破。 站在中国的立场上，相对于直接解决点问题，更要注重搞好基础研究和基础教育。否则，变革的主动权就会始终握在美国手中。美国可以通过面的竞争优势，不断制造出新的关键点来卡脖子。而我们反而只能不断被动应战。 反之，我们只有搞好了基础研究和基础教育，才可能真正夺取主动权，规避点的纠缠，赢在明天，实现面的反超。 敌方以点制面，我们就要控面绕点。这与军事上的大纵深突破，不过于拘泥点的战斗是一个道理。 所以，真正的隐忧恰在于，我们这些年来，无论是在基础研究领域，还是基础教育领域，都存在很多问题。 一些高校打着粉碎铁饭碗的旗子，强调三年无成果就走人，必然导致越来越多的科研人员进入应用转化领域。有关国家命运的基础性研究将加速成为无人问津的冷板凳。 更有一些高校，盲目追求所谓的国际化，以为有了外国学生就是国际化。不分良莠，花钱买学生，给外国学生提供超国民待遇，甚至配异性陪读，而不去思考如何吸引国际优质生源。闹出各种笑话。 基础教育领域的乱象更多。所有这一切，都在无声无息地削弱我们的面的战略竞争力。 故而，在关键点上“反卡脖子”，当然很重要。但更重要的是进行面的布局，兼顾短期和长期需求，方能真正助推反超拐点的到来。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14012,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/42c16c322f1c4af79f7071b23478398c_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":14037,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/03\/06\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%8b%99%e5%8d%bf%e5%b8%83%e6%9e%97%e8%82%af%e6%9c%80%e6%96%b0%e6%bc%94%e8%ac%9b%e8%ab%87%e4%b8%ad%e7%be%8e%e9%97%9c%e7%b3%bb%ef%bc%8c%e9%80%99%e4%ba%9b%e5%80%92%e9%80%80%e8%b7%a1\/","url_meta":{"origin":14004,"position":0},"title":"\u7f8e\u570b\u52d9\u537f\u5e03\u6797\u80af\u6700\u65b0\u6f14\u8b1b\u8ac7\u4e2d\u7f8e\u95dc\u7cfb\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5012\u9000\u8de1\u8c61\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5","date":"March 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