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3,391 自2003年，美国以藏有大规模杀伤性武器并暗中支持恐怖分子为由，绕过联合国对其进行军事打压以来，美国与伊拉克的关系日益紧张，直至今日都没有缓解的迹象。 而与伊拉克面临同样处境的伊朗，却没有得到与伊拉克同样的“待遇“。 二国相异难同语 这不同待遇的背后，肯定有伊朗自己的原因在。 要说伊朗与伊拉克的不同，就要先说我们从美国与伊拉克的战争中能看出的问题。首先就是战争动机，战争和作案是一样的，要想战争发动，必须要有一个借口，一个足够作为导火线引爆战争的借口，而伊拉克战争的起因，就是后者曾不顾国际社会广泛反对，派兵入侵了邻国科威特欲将其国土据为己有。 二十一世纪的世界早就和平了下来，对整个世界而言，战争是绝不可能被饶恕的一件事情。而伊拉克率先发动的战争很明显触及了整个世界的逆鳞，而美国也只是见缝插针，以一个”为了和平”的口号对其进行了一场暗含”私情”çš„”审判”。 若是伊拉克不去对邻国进行入侵，美国也就找不到这么一个完美的借口来对其进行军事武装。而伊朗的情形，从某种角度上来说正是如此。 它没有做过任何违反国际法则的事情，更别提是要违背和平原则，美方根本无法从这个方面入手，来找到一个理由去开启这次战争，若是这场战争真要发动，不管是从国际道义上看还是要从国际法上来看，美方注定是站不住脚的。 其次，美国能够爽快地下定决心攻克伊拉克，其中很大一部分原因就是地形。中国自古以来就有”天时地利人和”的说法，”地利”作为战争胜利三要素中不可或缺的一点，自然是对战争成败起着至关重要的作用。 伊拉克位于两河流域，其国土地形大多数为冲积平原或者沙漠，只有北部库尔德人聚集区是山区。这样的地形易攻难守，在这种平地上，装甲车的作用被发挥到极致，每天都能向前推进许多，战争日程也因此提上了好几倍速度。 而伊朗虽说都与伊拉克一样位于中东地区，但其国内地形大多数为山地，无论是陆战还是空战，入侵的哪一方都占不了任何地形优势。 最后，就是两国的军事实力差别。任何一个国家都对战争一事重视非常，而任何一个战争发起国，都不会打无把握的仗。而这”把握”的主要来源，就是军事力量上的优势。 伊朗与伊拉克之间不是没有打过仗，但都是小打小闹，其结果也是势均力敌。但要说真正的实力，伊朗绝对甩伊拉克几条街。 尽管伊朗和伊拉克的军队规模都较为庞大，但伊拉克在与美开战前，其武器装备经过十几年的制裁，大多数已经处于老旧状态或者缺乏零件，根本无力应对高科技信息化的战争。 而伊朗虽然也处在制裁环境中，但顶着压力的他们近年来一直没有放弃发展该国军工业。伊拉克背后庞大的军事力量也是让美国忌惮，迟迟不敢动手的重要原因。 国情变动难再造 除去二国的不同之外，美国迟迟没有对伊朗下手，还进行官方辟谣的另一重要原因就是当前的局势问题。 自2003å¹´3月20日发动战争起，到2003å¹´5月1日布什宣布战争结束。用时将近42天。但从这数字上看，美方似乎赢得格外轻松，只用了一个半月的时间就将伊拉克攻下。 但实际上，直至现在，伊拉克的部分地区仍在对美国的侵略做出抵抗，也就是说，双方战场上，真刀实枪的战争结束了，但是属于平民与士兵之间的私下斗争却从未停止。 这就像一个熊孩子，一直在你身边嚷嚷，你不能将他一棍子打死，但又不得不抽出时间和精力来照看他。烦人的紧，但你又对他无可奈何。这样的情形对美方来讲自然是十分棘手。 一个伊拉克就已经让美国烦不胜烦，若是在这个时候再加上一个伊朗，即便是第一大国，也难免分身乏术。所以对伊朗发动战争的决策被美国一拖再拖，到现在也没有下文。 再者，虽说现在的国际局势仍是一超多强，美国现今也还是世界第一大国。但不得不承认，现在的美国的的确确是在退步的。 与几十年前相比，美国肯定是在进步的，不管是在经济方面还是军事方面。但国家之间的竞争就如逆水行舟，不进则退。你停在一个水平不懂，而别人在进步，对你而言是一种退步。而若是你进步，但别人进步地更加明显，那你仍然是在退步。后者就是现在的美国。 美国现在在国际上有影响力，但影响力当真是不如先前了。它当初能绕过联合国找伊拉克麻烦，就是因为它有能力让联合国对这件事情睁一只眼闭一只眼。但现在的美国不了。随着联合国对自身宪章越来越准确、严格地贯彻，美国无法再像之前一样为所欲为。 接着，就是伊朗与各个国家间的关系，和伊拉克领导人萨达姆四处树敌不同，伊朗虽然坚决反美，但却和欧洲国家关系良好。特别是和曾经对美国言听计从的英、法、德等国，更是交往甚密。 这些国家单个拎出来都不是美国的对手，但这就像是我们常说的那个”一根筷子易折断，一把筷子难折断”的故事一样。这些国家若是要一起来对付美国，那美国铁定是吃不消的。 其中还有最重要的一点，美国当初能痛快地下定决心攻打伊拉克，还因为这个时间点很巧妙。当时正是美国总统大选之时，打伊拉克对于当时的美国总统小布什来说是个千载难逢的机会，这个机会很有可能让小布什成功连任。 而攻打伊朗，不仅有失败的风险，对美国的政治来说也没有任何的帮助。这种”伤敌一千自损八百”的事情，自然是没有必要去做的必要。 综合考虑难下手 美国对伊朗这一问题一拖再拖，就是以上几种因素综合作用的结果，这些因素让美国不敢再狂。 而这些因素又可归为一下几大类。 第一，伊朗本身具有实力。除去上文提到的军事力量和盟友力量之外，伊朗本身还藏有一个秘密武器，那就是石油和霍尔木兹海峡。 霍尔木兹海峡是中东油气资源向外输出的必经通道。美国对伊朗采取的制裁虽然令伊朗石油出口量大幅下降，但上有政策下有对策，伊朗还没到走投无路的那一天。 如果美国军舰有越线的意图，伊朗的首要动作估计就是封锁霍尔木兹海峡，让世面上的石油储存量大大减少。而这行为造成的直接后果就是石油的涨价。 石油作为现代使用最多的燃料，其供应本就满足不了需求，若是美国让这本就珍贵的石油在市面上大大减少，必定会引起国内外各阶层人士的不满，这对美国来说百害而无一利。 第2， 美国的顾忌。在还未对伊朗下达真正战争命令的现在，美国就已经为国内的大小事物忙得焦头烂额。油价问题，国内反战问题，财政赤字问题等，再加上美国与伊拉克的战后问题还没有得到根本的解决，这些问题已经足够让美国难熬，在此时再加上一个棘手的伊朗，这后果是真的难以想象。 而且，美国近几年在战争问题上尤其积极，前有阿富汗，后有伊拉克，伊拉克,阿富汗这两个地区的问题迟迟没有得到解决,已经引起了美国大众和国际社会的普遍反感。 不管是美国大众还是美国的领导人员，都不太可能会再去开辟第三个战场。换个说法，他们根本就没有信心和能力去开辟这第三战场。 第3， å›½é™…上的声音。就实际来说，美国最近的一系列动作已经引起了国际社会上大部分国家和人民的不满，而美国所提倡的”民主””自由”与”和平”，也早就被大众贴上了”虚伪”的标签。 美国若是要在这个当口提出侵略伊朗，那就犯了与伊拉克先前相同的错误，触了整个国际社会的逆鳞。这件事情，美国自然也是十分清楚，而等待它的结果也或许会与先前的伊拉克一样。美国的骄傲不允许它遭受失败。 再者，美国挑起战争，从来只顾自己的利益，而它的盟友，虽说也是出人出力，积极配合。 可战争结束之后，得到好处的，却只有美国，跟在美国之后的盟国，不仅要面对贸易损失，还要被难民问题弄得焦头烂额。其盟友也对它的做法不满已久。也正是这三方的制约让美国对伊朗问题犹豫不决。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10498,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/2MDiDUdlR5-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C420&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":41570,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/05\/07\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e9%99%a3%e7%87%9f%e7%aa%81%e7%84%b6%e5%b4%a9%e7%9b%a4%ef%bc%81%e4%b8%89%e5%a4%a7%e7%9b%9f%e5%8f%8b%e5%85%ac%e9%96%8b%e5%8a%83%e6%b8%85%e7%95%8c%e9%99%90%ef%bc%8c%e6%94%aa%e4%ba%82\/","url_meta":{"origin":10497,"position":0},"title":"\u7f8e\u570b\u9663\u71df\u7a81\u7136\u5d29\u76e4\uff01\u4e09\u5927\u76df\u53cb\u516c\u958b\u5283\u6e05\u754c\u9650\uff0c\u652a\u4e82\u6253\u4f0a\u6717\u8a08\u5283","date":"May 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