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2,893 　铁矿石价格涨疯了！这是中国钢铁行业这一个月来最关注的问题之一。从11月初开始，国内铁矿石期货价格持续直线上涨。短短一个月，每吨价格已经由不到800元上涨到了1000元左右，相当于上涨了25%以上。许多人惋惜道，我国对澳大利亚的许多惩罚，被一个铁矿石，全部给赚回去了。 　　图片鸣谢观察者网 　　之所以这样说，是因为在中方从澳方进口的产品中，前面所制裁的肉类、农产品、葡萄酒等，所占比例都很小（1-4%），真正的大头在矿产品，特别是铁矿石方面。数据显示，2019年，澳大利亚对中方出口中，矿产品类金额所占比例高达68%左右。所以才会出现，所有产品的制裁，都顶不上一个铁矿石的涨价的现象。 　　对此，有人痛呼道，国内铁矿石期货市场有没有猫腻，要详查！有人感叹道，中国是稀土出口大国，但却没有多少定价权；中国是铁矿石进口大国，依然没有定价权。合辙无论是进口还是出口，我们都拿不到定价权，国内厂商到底在干什么？ 　　有人解释称，国土“以前”稀土缺乏定价权的一个关键原因，是因为国内出口厂商太分散，形不成合力，甚至还互相内斗、低价倾轧（目前已限制了乱采滥挖，并进行了部分整合）；而铁矿石方面，国际上已经形成了澳大利亚必和必拓、巴西淡水河谷等几个大厂商，而国内钢铁厂则比较分散。所以，国内在相关方面缺乏国际巨无霸企业，因此战斗力较弱。 　　不过，在笔者看来，这些都只是一方面。中国在疫情后经济的快速恢复，因为新基建带来的更大需求，以及国际市场上巴西等其他铁矿石来源国因为疫情影响原因产能的不足，这种供需关系的变化，是造成价格上涨的根本原因。这类似于阳谋，要真正的解决，还需要阳谋的手段。 　　首先，我们要做的是扩大铁矿石的来源，并且要尽量掌握在自己手里。这几年我国已经在布局非洲几内亚的西芒杜铁矿了，只是目前还需时间。其次，我们可以增加铁矿石以外的渠道——比如进口废钢铁。目前，我国每年进口铁矿石高达10亿多吨，但2019年进口废钢铁却只有18万吨，比2018å¹´çš„134万吨减少了一个数量级！目前全球每年废钢铁出口约1亿吨，我们大有可为。 　　此外，钢铁是有回收周期的（建筑、汽车等），目前国内每年废钢铁回收量已经超过了2亿吨。当回收量继续提升，国内对铁矿石的需求就会进一步下降，就可以不断接近一些人口里的“钢平衡”。目前，我国每年钢材出口量比进口量多5000万吨，这也是“钢不平衡”的原因之一。后面，我们继续提升我国钢材的附加值，减少一般钢材的出口，对钢平衡可起到促进作用。 　　当然，我们现在也不是没有对付澳大利亚的方法，控制煤炭进口就是一个很好的方法。首先，我国是煤炭大国，国内开采多少煤炭取决于市场需要多少以及性价比。其次，这几年，澳大利亚煤炭出口额已经赶上甚至超过铁矿石的出口额，成为澳方出口的两大支柱之一。对澳大利亚煤炭的打击，可谓正中澳方的软肋。 　　让澳大利亚煤炭船在海上漂泊去吧 　　目前，澳方每年媒体出口额高达近900亿美元，其中对我国的依赖度已经达到23%左右，也就是200亿美元。我们可以充分利用这个手段，给澳大利亚以惩罚。而实际上，目前我国正在这样做。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10280,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/6rMg2LTbOp-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C420&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":20908,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/06\/06\/%e9%90%b5%e7%a4%a6%e7%9f%b3%e6%88%b0%e7%88%ad%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e9%87%8d%e6%8b%b3%e5%87%ba%e6%93%8a%ef%bc%8c%e9%90%b5%e7%a4%a6%e5%83%b9%e6%a0%bc%e6%9a%b4%e8%b7%8c%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b\/","url_meta":{"origin":10279,"position":0},"title":"\u9435\u7926\u77f3\u6230\u722d\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u91cd\u62f3\u51fa\u64ca\uff0c\u9435\u7926\u50f9\u683c\u66b4\u8dcc\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u88ab\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9e\u5751\u6158\u4e86","date":"June 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