2020\u5e74\u5df2\u7ecf\u5feb\u8981\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a2020\u5e74\u7ed9\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u6700\u6df1\u7684\u5370\u8c61\uff0c\u65e0\u7591\u662f\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5bf9\u6297\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u822a\u6bcd\u6218\u6597\u7fa4\u6570\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u4e9a\u592a\u6d77\u57df\uff0c\u610f\u56fe\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u884c\u65bd\u538b\u3002\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u79ef\u6781\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u6b63\u9762\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u4e3e\u529e\u4e86\u6570\u573a\u5927\u578b\u6d77\u4e0a\u5b9e\u5f39\u519b\u6f14\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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2020\u5e74\u4e9a\u592a\u6d77\u57df\u5e76\u4e0d\u5e73\u9759<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u51fa\u7089\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u90fd\u89c9\u5f97\u57282021\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u4f1a\u9010\u6e10\u4ece\u5bf9\u6297\u8f6c\u5411\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u7684\u5219\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5468\u8fb9\u5c40\u52bf\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u597d\u8f6c\u3002\u4f46\u4ece\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u6765\u770b\uff0c2021\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u5468\u8fb9\u5c40\u52bf\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6ca1\u6709\u597d\u8f6c\u7684\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6bd42020\u5e74\u8fd8\u4f1a\u6076\u52a3\u4e00\u4e9b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56db\u56fd\u8054\u5408\u51fa\u52a8\u2014\u2014\u7f8e\u65e5\u82f1\u6cd5\u5c06\u57282021\u5e74\u4e00\u8d77\u589e\u5175\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

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\u7f8e\u65e5\u6cd5\u5c06\u4e3e\u884c\u5927\u578b\u8054\u5408\u519b\u6f14<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u201c\u4f0a\u4e3d\u838e\u767d\u5973\u738b\u201d\u53f7\u4e5f\u8981\u6765<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0d\u8fc7\u82f1\u6cd5\u65e5\u4e09\u56fd\u5728\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0d\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u6b63\u8003\u8651\u5728\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a\u91cd\u5efa\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u8230\u961f\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u8230\u961f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u6218\u4efb\u52a1\u5c31\u662f\u914d\u5408\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e03\u8230\u961f\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5468\u8fb9\u6d77\u57df\u7684\u7ba1\u63a7\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5c4a\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u5c06\u5728\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a\u5e38\u6001\u5316\u4fdd\u6301\u81f3\u5c112\u4e2a\u822a\u6bcd\u6218\u6597\u7fa4\u7684\u4f5c\u6218\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u7f8e\u56fd\u624d\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u6218\u5bf9\u8c61<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u800c\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u9646\u6218\u961f\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u9646\u6218\u961f\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u652fF-35C\u9690\u8eab\u8230\u8f7d\u673a\u4f5c\u6218\u4e2d\u961f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f62\u6210\u6218\u6597\u529b\u3002\u8be5\u4f5c\u6218\u4e2d\u961f\u5c06\u90e8\u7f72\u5230\u201c\u5361\u5c14\u00b7\u6587\u68ee\u201d\u53f7\u6838\u52a8\u529b\u822a\u6bcd\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u9a7b\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u91cd\u5efa\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u8230\u961f\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06\u4f1a\u4ee5\u201c\u5361\u5c14\u00b7\u6587\u68ee\u201d\u53f7\u6838\u52a8\u529b\u822a\u6bcd\u4e3a\u4f5c\u6218\u6838\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u65e5\u82f1\u6cd5\u60f3\u901a\u8fc7\u519b\u4e8b\u6050\u5413\uff0c\u60f3\u4ece\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd9\u91cc\u83b7\u5f97\u4ec0\u4e48\u597d\u5904\uff1f<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

\uff081\uff09\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u519b\u4e8b\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u591f\u589e\u5f3a\u5728\u4e9a\u592a\u6d77\u57df\u7684\u6d77\u4e0a\u4f5c\u6218\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u5a01\u80c1\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u5916\u822a\u7ebf\u7684\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u524a\u5f31\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u8f83\u5f3a\u519b\u4e8b\u5f80\u6765\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u611f\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fde\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6d77\u5916\u5229\u76ca\u90fd\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e0d\u4e86\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u62ff\u4ec0\u4e48\u6765\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f60\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5229\u76ca\u5462?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd8\u662f\u60f3\u7528\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u89e3\u51b3\u4e00\u5207\u95ee\u9898<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\uff082\uff09\u65e5\u672c\u6bd4\u8f83\u7279\u6b8a\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u529b\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u4e0d\u60f3\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u519b\u4e8b\u5c42\u9762\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\uff0c\u6bd5\u7adf\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f88\u8fdc\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f88\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u65e5\u672c\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u548c\u641e\u8054\u5408\u519b\u6f14<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6d77\u4e0a\u5b89\u5168\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65e5\u672c\u6765\u8bf4\u53c8\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u65e5\u672c\u81ea\u5df1\u5e76\u4e0d\u6253\u7b97\u4e3b\u52a8\u6311\u8845\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8ddf\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u80cc\u540e\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u641e\u8054\u5408\u519b\u6f14\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u62c9\u4e00\u7fa4\u4eba\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u58ee\u58f0\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u82f1\u56fd\u4eba\u663e\u7136\u6ca1\u770b\u6e05\u5f62\u52bf<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\uff084\uff09\u6cd5\u56fd\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u5f70\u663e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u63d0\u5347\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u6b27\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u8bdd\u8bed\u6743\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u6cd5\u56fd\u4eba\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u6765\u8d70\u4e2a\u8fc7\u573a\u7684<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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3,101 2020年已经快要结束了，整个2020年给大部分中国人留下的最深的印象，无疑是中美之间的进一步对抗。美国航母战斗群数次出现在亚太海域，意图对中国进行施压。而中国方面也积极给出了正面回应，举办了数场大型海上实弹军演。 2020年亚太海域并不平静 随着美国大选结果的出炉，很多人都觉得在2021年，中美两国会逐渐从对抗转向合作，随之而来的则是中国周边局势的整体好转。但从目前的情况来看，2021年中国周边局势不仅没有好转的倾向，甚至比2020年还会恶劣一些。 四国联合出动——美日英法将在2021年一起增兵亚太地区 根据法国方面的消息，法国明年将派遣目前唯一的一艘航空母舰——“戴高乐”号核动力航母，在2021年来亚太地区，与美国、日本一起举行联合军演。这场美日法联合军演不仅规模较大，而且不限于传统的海上军演，还将进行陆上军事演习。 美日法将举行大型联合军演 英国方面自然不用说，英国国防部已经打算派遣“伊丽莎白女王”号航空母舰及配套的护卫舰艇，在2021年常驻亚太地区，以保护亚太地区的“航行自由”。看来澳大利亚扩充军备保护中澳海上航线不受中国威胁的思路，是从英国这边学来的。 英国的“伊丽莎白女王”号也要来 不过英法日三国在亚太地区的军事力量，还是不如美国。美国海军正考虑在亚太地区重建美国海军的第一舰队，第一舰队的主要作战任务就是配合目前美国海军的第七舰队，增强对中国周边海域的管控能力。届时，美国海军将在亚太地区常态化保持至少2个航母战斗群的作战力量。 美国才是主要作战对象 而根据美国海军陆战队的官方消息，美国海军陆战队的第一支F-35C隐身舰载机作战中队已经形成战斗力。该作战中队将部署到“卡尔·æ–‡æ£®”号核动力航母上，并进驻亚太地区。因此，美国海军重建的第一舰队，相当大的可能将会以“卡尔·æ–‡æ£®”号核动力航母为作战核心。 美日英法想通过军事恐吓，想从中国这里获得什么好处？ （1）美国的主要军事目的，是希望能够增强在亚太海域的海上作战力量，威胁中国海外航线的安全，进而削弱国际上与中国有较强军事往来国家对中国的信任感。如果中国连自己的海外利益都保护不了，中国拿什么来保护你们的经济利益呢? 美国还是想用军事力量解决一切问题 其次，是通过军事恐吓的方式，尽量保持目前的台海局势。只要中国还没有完全收回台湾省，那么“台海牌”就仍然是美国对华战略中的一张王牌。换言之，让台海保持目前局势，对美国是有利的。 （2）日本比较特殊，一方面，由于这些年中国军力的快速增长，日本本身是不想和中国有军事层面冲突的，毕竟美国很远，中国很近。 日本就是不断和搞联合军演 但是，海上安全对于日本来说又十分重要，所以日本自己并不打算主动挑衅中国，而是跟在美国和其他国家的背后，一起搞联合军演，也就是拉一群人给自己壮声势。 （3）英国和日本类似但是又稍有不同，根据英国国防部最新的计划，英国在未来的目标是做“美国最值得信赖的军事合作伙伴”。也就是和日本一样，要和美国的战车绑在一起，但是和日本不同，英国的主动性更强，打算主动做出一些成绩来向美国邀功。 英国人显然没看清形势 另一方面，目前英国正在逐渐“脱欧”，英国在欧洲的话语权正在逐渐跌落。在这种情况下，如果要让世人觉得“世界需要英国”，或者是“世界上还有英国”，英国就只能在欧洲之外寻找新的切入点展示自己的价值。美洲英国自然是不敢去的，所以就剩下亚洲成为英国的选择了。 （4）法国的目的和英国类似，不同的是，法国是希望通过在亚洲彰显自己的军事实力，提升自己在欧盟内部的话语权。 法国人也只是来走个过场的 毕竟现在在经济上，欧盟内部也就德国能和法国较量一下，但是德国的军事实力太弱，英国的军事实力也差了点，法国要想彰显自己“欧盟肌肉大哥”的身份，就只能找一个美国之外的假想敌，找来找去也就剩下中国了。 打得一拳开，免得百拳来——中国应当守住核心利益 从上文的分析中可以看出，虽然美日英法四国在2021年都将一起增兵亚太，但实际上会对中国核心利益产生冲突的，只有美国。尤其是美国的第一舰队和第七舰队，估计将会是中国海军在2021年经常碰面的对手。 核心还是中美对抗 日本不敢动真格的，英国和法国只是想借助“遏制中国”梳理自己的价值和形象，所以这三个国家在亚太地区即使增强了军事力量，也不会触碰到中国的核心利益。中国的核心利益是什么？是南海和台海。 打得一拳开，免得百拳来 毛主席说得好“打得一拳开，免得百拳来”，除了英法日三国之外，世界上还有很多人看着中美两国在亚太地区角力，中美亚太地区的军事角力，将直接影响这些国家的态度。因此，在南海、台海这类中国的核心利益上，中国应当不惜代价守住，这样才能守住我们的经济成果。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/\u672a\u547d\u540d_\u526f\u672c-437_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C420&ssl=1","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":26386,"url":"https:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/08\/12\/%e4%be%86%e5%8d%97%e6%b5%b7%e5%8f%aa%e6%98%af%e5%b9%8c%e5%ad%90%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e5%9c%8b%e8%88%aa%e6%af%8d%e6%ba%9c%e8%b5%b0%e5%be%8c%e8%bf%85%e9%80%9f%e5%89%8d%e9%80%b2%ef%bc%8c%e6%8e%a5%e4%b8%8b\/","url_meta":{"origin":10004,"position":0},"title":"\u4f86\u5357\u6d77\u53ea\u662f\u5e4c\u5b50\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u822a\u6bcd\u6e9c\u8d70\u5f8c\u8fc5\u901f\u524d\u9032\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u9084\u6709\u4e00\u5927\u4e8b\u8981\u505a","date":"August 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1996\u00e5\u00b9\u00b4\u00e5†›\u00e6\u00bc”\u00e5Œ\u00ba\u00e5ŸŸ\u00ef\u00bcˆ\u00e9\u00bb‘\u00e8‰\u00b2\u00ef\u00bc‰\u00e4\u00b8Ž\u00e5\u00bd“\u00e5‰\u00e5†›\u00e6\u00bc”\u00e5Œ\u00ba\u00e5ŸŸ\u00ef\u00bcˆ\u00e7\u00ba\u00a2\u00e8‰\u00b2\u00ef\u00bc‰\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e8“\u00e8‰\u00b2\u00e4\u00b8\u00ba\u00e6‰€\u00e8\u00b0“\u00e7š„\u201c\u00e6\u00b5\u00b7\u00e5\u00b3\u00a1\u00e4\u00b8\u00ad\u00e7\u00ba\u00bf\u201d\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e6\u00a3•\u00e8‰\u00b2\u00e4\u00b8\u00ba12\u00e6\u00b5\u00b7\u00e9‡Œ\u00e7\u00ba\u00bf 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8\u00e6œˆ5\u00e6—\u00a5\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e4\u00b8\u00ad\u00e5›\u00bd\u00e4\u00ba\u00ba\u00e6\u00b0‘\u00e8\u00a7\u00a3\u00e6”\u00be\u00e5†›\u00e4\u00b8œ\u00e9ƒ\u00a8\u00e6ˆ˜\u00e5Œ\u00ba\u00e6\u00b5\u00b7\u00e5†›\u00e7\u00bb\u00a7\u00e7\u00bb\u00ad\u00e5œ\u00a8\u00e5\u00b0\u00e5\u00b2›\u00e5‘\u00a8\u00e8\u00be\u00b9\u00e6\u00b5\u00b7\u00e5ŸŸ\u00e5\u00b1•\u00e5\u00bc€\u00e5\u00aež\u00e6ˆ˜\u00e5Œ–\u00e8\u00ae\u00ad\u00e7\u00bbƒ\u00e3€‚\u00e8\u00bf™\u00e6˜\u00af\u00e6Ÿ\u00e8ˆ\u00b0\u00e5\u00ae˜\u00e5…\u00b5\u00e5œ\u00a8\u00e7ž\u00ad\u00e6œ›\u00e8\u00a7‚\u00e5\u00afŸ\u00e3€‚\u00e6–\u00b0\u00e5Ž\u00e7\u00a4\u00be\u00e5‘\u00ef\u00bcˆ\u00e6ž—\u00e5\u00a5 \u00e6‘„\u00ef\u00bc‰ 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