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談判進展迅速,中不簽署備忘錄!印度人:最後一個鄰國也開始反印 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

談判進展迅速,中不簽署備忘錄!印度人:最後一個鄰國也開始反印

談判進展迅速,中不簽署備忘錄!印度人:最後一個鄰國也開始反印
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在此前很长一段时间里边,不丹的内政外交看似独立自主,可实际上一直是由印度控制的,不夸张地说,不丹基本上相当于印度的一个省。在几十年前,印度与不丹签署了“印不永久友好条约”,该条约中,规定了不丹必须接受来自印度方面的“指导”,同时还必须要接受印度在不丹驻军。所以在2017年发生的“洞朗事件”,虽然是中国和不丹的边界发生了争端,但却是中印的军队在交锋。

而且,除了在军事方面直接干涉外,印度自始至终还在限制不丹与其他国家的经济交流,以彻底控制不丹。面对军事与经济的双重控制,不丹其实也有过反抗的想法,不过现实中由于地理条件有缺陷,不丹无法像巴基斯坦一样获得来自中国的援助,中国虽然与不丹接壤,但喜马拉雅山脉基本上阻断了两国正常的经济往来,所以不丹只能是被印度一直控制着。

不过,在中国和不丹两国政府外交官以视频通话的方式,确认了《关于加快中不边界谈判“三步走”路线图的谅解备忘录》之后。不丹实际被印度控制的历史,或将成为过去式。而且这也从侧面反映出印度人是有多么的不得人心,在半数国土都与印度接壤的情况下,不丹还是要违反印度的意愿,与中国就边界问题进行谈判并签署备忘录,可见不丹是有多么地想要脱离印度。

现在,中国和不丹虽然开心了,可印度将不得不面临,中不两国建交这一现实问题,边界问题解决后,下一步多半是建交,随着中国和不丹合作的深化,那届时印度对不丹的影响必将进一步减弱。为此,有印度人开始在印度媒体上,公开抱怨印度政府,称这是中国在西南边境上迈出的历史性一步,而这也意味着印度的最后一个邻国也开始反对印度。

在目前南亚各国的关系中,除了印度的宿敌巴基斯坦之外,孟加拉,尼泊尔和斯里兰卡等国,现在也或多或少地在某些政策上不服从印度的摆布,独立地与中国展开密切的外交,经贸甚至军事合作,再加上这次谈判进展迅速,中不签署备忘录,这将意味着,如果印度继续恶化其对华关系,破坏地区稳定与合作的局面,那莫迪面临的将是在南亚被其他国家孤立的局面。

当然,并不排除不丹在未来会整出什么幺蛾子,毕竟目前中不只是签署备忘录而已。这一备忘录的主要作用是确定了中不双方决定了谈判的过程,不一定会产生什么结果。用不确切的比喻,就好比大型企业招标,目前的阶段是确定招标文件,招标地点等,至于招标结果如何,还需要做大量的工作。

更何况想要真正谈出实质性成果的话,关键也不在于我们,而在于不丹的国内政局。现在的不丹,正处于一个政治转型时期,内部变动会相当的大。自2008年以来,不丹的政治形势都表明,没有哪一党能够长期执政。无论是不丹联合党,又或者偏底层的联合党,还是与皇室紧密相关的繁荣与发展党,都只是在轮流坐庄,并没有一家独大的情况出现。在这一情形中,对未来的中不关系走向来说,是一个很大的不确定性。【三土】

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