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美國財政部:中國連續拋售美債,美國或將很快耗光資金,有新變化 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

美國財政部:中國連續拋售美債,美國或將很快耗光資金,有新變化

美國財政部:中國連續拋售美債,美國或將很快耗光資金,有新變化
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上世纪四十年代中叶,全球许多国家由于经济受到二战的重创,没有能力修建固若金汤的金库,于是,美联储和英格兰银行的金库开通了替多国寄存者保管黄金的业务。半个多世纪以来,这也成为全球黄金管理约定俗成的惯例。然而黄金爱好者们不断质疑这些黄金的安全性。特别是在美国通胀加剧,美元购买力下降的情况下,事情正发生变化。

美国财政部:中国连续抛售美债,美国或将很快耗光资金,有新变化

继美国5月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比涨幅蹿升至5%后, 最新数据显示,美国公布的6月消费者价格指数上涨5.4%。已超过2008年8月美国次贷危机和金融危机时5.3%的水平。那么,美联储是否会私吞多国黄金来抵御通胀和美元贬值的冲击?美国自身真的拥有宣称的8100吨黄金,真的是全球最大的黄金储备国吗?

其中的一个迹象是,自1950年代以来,美国自己宣称的8100吨黄金储备一直没有被第三方机构进行过全面的物理审核。几乎所有的美国黄金储备都不在民间银行的金库里,也没有存在美联储,而是在肯塔基的诺克斯堡和纽约哈德逊河畔的西点军校。

美国财政部:中国连续抛售美债,美国或将很快耗光资金,有新变化

我们查询美联储前主席格林斯潘早在1988年时就曾对美国国会表示,美联储随时准备增加数量的黄金租赁。这意味着,美联储已经早已承认了,其存在挪用多国黄金的行为。这也说明,美国实际上宣称的8100吨黄金可能一部分来自于其他寄存者的黄金被挪用了。

而根据美国金融网站ZeroHedge在三周前的跟进报道中显示,自上世纪50年代初开始,多国存放在纽约金库中的黄金就一直没有被系统地审计过。特别是在黄金上涨的多个周期内,美国已经连续出售了多年黄金而获利。比如2020年黄金大涨时,纽约金库的黄金管理者们一直很忙碌。

美国财政部:中国连续抛售美债,美国或将很快耗光资金,有新变化

纽约联邦储备银行金库外观

还有一个现象值得注意,美联储和英格兰银行自2018年以来,多次阻止和拒绝了委内瑞拉提出运回余下黄金的要求。此外,德国2019年的运回余下黄金计划,也被美联储阻止。尽管当时这两家银行给到的理由是,意图不明,但有分析师认为,是由于美联储和英格兰银行一时间拿不出可以兑现的黄金量。这就增加了私吞黄金的可能。

还有一个现象是,德国在2012年从美联储运回部分黄金时,发觉运回的金条并不是1945年寄存的那些,因为形状和体积都变化了。尽管多年以来,美联储始终没能给到合理的解释,只是说黄金的重量一致就可以,但这一现象却打破了黄金管理市场上的宁静。越来越多的货币当局开始提出运回黄金储备的要求和计划。

美国财政部:中国连续抛售美债,美国或将很快耗光资金,有新变化

截至目前,法国,德国,意大利,比利时,荷兰,瑞士,匈牙利,波兰,俄罗斯,委内瑞拉,罗马尼亚,斯洛伐克,奥地利、澳大利亚、土耳其至少15国已经宣布从美联储等海外金库中运回部分或即将运回黄金储备了。而数据显示,目前美联储地下金库中的7000吨黄金已经降至5750吨,1250吨黄金已经被运出美国。

值得一提的是,据国际金融报数月前发表的《美国私吞了多少黄金》的报道,中国之前可能有600吨黄金存在美联储的金库中。俄媒RT分析认为,寄存在美联储的黄金所有权是非常清晰的,美联储到任何时候都无权阻止寄存者取走黄金。

美国财政部:中国连续抛售美债,美国或将很快耗光资金,有新变化

正如俄财长数周前就发出警告美联储称,如果查没黄金储备,相当于”金融宣战”。也就是说,俄已公开表明了,一旦美联储或美国私吞黄金的猜测被捶,其可能面临无法想象的后果。

而根据拥有美债这一美元核心资产的数量上来看,中国拥有超万亿规模的美国国债,(另一个是日本),因为美联储也不敢阻止运回黄金的,否则将面临美债被大规模抛售,对美国债务经济模式的冲击也是难以想象的。截至7月21日,美国联邦债务总额已高达28.5万亿美元新纪录,并且债务上限即将于7月31日到期,美财长耶伦不久前警告称,美国或将在8月耗光现有的资金。届时,美国向全球举债可能成为问题,除非美国国会提高债务上限。

美国财政部:中国连续抛售美债,美国或将很快耗光资金,有新变化

值得一提的是,事情的一个新变化是,根据美国财政部7月16日公布的TIC最新数据显示,截至今年5月,中国已经连续三个月减持了美国国债。继3月和4月减持81亿美元美国国债后,中国5月再次减持177亿美元的美国国债,目前持有1.078万亿美元的美债。自2018年以来,累计已抛售了约为2016亿美债。抛售总数已经高于德国等多个美国的经济盟友持有的美债数量。

因此,在美国通胀加剧,急需维系美元地位的背景下,也不敢阻止中国运回黄金。而Simon Hunt战略服务公司首席执行官称,中国实际或拥有3万吨黄金。国际黄金分析第一人阿拉斯代尔麦克劳德也猜测认为,中国在1982到2003年间囤积了2.5万吨黄金,而目前很有可能超过3万吨。一些黄金分析师,还通过对中国大妈对黄金的青睐程度上,认为中国实际拥有更多黄金。

美国财政部:中国连续抛售美债,美国或将很快耗光资金,有新变化

无独有偶,Zerohedge三周前分析报道称,自从没有向世界黄金协会及IMF报告一些收购数据以来,数千吨黄金或已经运送到了中国。虽然美联储急于通过掌控全球黄金,应对美元贬值和美国通胀,但对于这一市场变化,却不敢阻止。(完)

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