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用關稅控制中國?特朗普親信給拜登支招:3700億關稅不能取消,讓中國踩在火上 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

用關稅控制中國?特朗普親信給拜登支招:3700億關稅不能取消,讓中國踩在火上

用關稅控制中國?特朗普親信給拜登支招:3700億關稅不能取消,讓中國踩在火上
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中美贸易当中,美国占据强势地位,但是美国方面显然有人觉得美国才是弱势的一方,并妄想以此来“勒索”中国。相较于纳瓦罗这种人来说,莱特希泽起码是个正常人在过去两年中,特朗普的贸易代表莱特希泽,与美国商务部长罗斯、财政部长姆努钦一同组成了中美贸易谈判的美方一侧代表。作为曾经参加过广场协议的鹰派经济专家,莱特希泽最擅长的便是撕咬敌人以为美国赢得谈判空间。而在12月15日的路透社采访中,莱特希泽就未来的中美贸易谈判给拜登提出了建议,称“第一阶段要让他们脚踩在火上”,拜登应当继承特朗普对3700亿商品加征的25%的关税,以极限施压来控制中国。莱特希泽同时表示,如果关税取消,就意味着美方没有将中国当成一个战略对手。拜登正在规划自己人内的财长、商务部长和贸易代表不过在稍早之前的8月份,拜登曾对中美贸易第一阶段协议做出过负面评价,然而考虑到彼时拜登尚未当选总统,任何表态都带有政治目的,因此12月2日期接受《纽约时报》专访时“不立即采取行动撤销关税和第一阶段贸易协议”的表态相对来说更为真实。不难看出,拜登事实上将特朗普时期的中美贸易关系的改善与否,当成了自己任上的一张可以随意拿捏的牌,而莱特希泽则依然是出于对华敌对立场,和自己的过往经验制定对华政策,寄希望于拜登接受并继承这一套理论,实现规划的胜利。但从实际情况而言,这只能是莱特希泽“天真烂漫的幻想”。贸易平等与否的判断标准是经济规模的体量、质量与依存度1.美国在国际贸易中固然强势,但中国也不是吃素的实际上,从近年来美国对中国的一系列制裁,就可以看出中美贸易中美国的强势地位。在美国所主导的世界秩序之下,贸易规则最初的制定,事实上是为美国的资本所服务的,贸易秩序的仲裁者也主要是美国利益集团。对于美元霸权的冲击,在近十年来从未间断,并且随着中国经济的不断发展和中国产业链的不断完善,而出现了可靠的替代方案。正因如此,对于美国的制裁,现如今的中国是有底气进行对等反击,诸如美方大力打压的芯片领域,中国甚至一度出现了“百花齐放”的局面。抗议结束后,一地鸡毛2.“壮士断腕”还是等着被超越?留给美国的时间不多了值得注意的是,这一进程不因个别美国政客的意志而中断,减缓便是其所能够做到的极限。近几个月以来,中美贸易特别是中国对美出口,在美国尚未撤销对华征收的25%关税,以及人民币升值的情况下强势上扬,说明了美国国内生产力的缺口,已经到达了即将动摇美国人民生活和政客的谎言二者间的平衡的地步。不具备足够的内部收买能力,就无法坚持步调一致的对外政策,这就是美国的现状。作为一个需要对全球输出通胀来维系本国繁荣的国家,离开了中国的支持,美国本土产业链必然会遭到重创,所谓的“离开是为了回来”的说法有多可笑不言而喻。若是不出现重大变故,在未来的十年到十五年时间里,中国经济总量必然会超过美国;而人均和历史人均超过美国所需的时间,则是美国最后的战略窗口期。余晖照耀在了冷战活化石们的头顶上3.顺势而行还是逆势而为,选择权依旧在美国的手上实际上,目前中国所面临的制裁威胁,归根究底还是美国试图以霸权来挑战客观规律,特别是客观经济规律。虽然经济学家全部都是事后诸葛亮,但是必须承认的一点是,经济有着自我的运行规律,不为尧存亦不为桀亡。特朗普在美国禁止对华出口大量高附加值产品的情况下,试图以人力来扭转贸易逆差,既没有认识到美元的信用货币属性,更没有了解到在非理性人和国家干预情况下供需之间的微妙平衡。正因如此,无论莱特希泽、特朗普、拜登们说什么做什么,都无法打断中国的发展,反而更进一步地证明了中国生产力是现如今世界秩序的锚定物。随着中国按照自己的规划不断前进,保持战略定力无视外界干扰,未来的中美贸易毫无疑问会向着美国人不愿意看到,但是却又最符合现实逻辑与公平正义的方向前进。

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