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163萬億出逃美國!大家都不想在美國玩了!全球經濟風險要變? – 有海水的地方就有中國人

163萬億出逃美國!大家都不想在美國玩了!全球經濟風險要變?

163萬億出逃美國!大家都不想在美國玩了!全球經濟風險要變?
3,130

美國經濟正在走向衰退。

雖然根據美國公布的經濟數據顯示美國經濟正在緩慢回升,但是10.7%的失業率以及初次申領失業金人數一直維持在90萬左右、政府財政赤字達新高、美債收益指數連續十周出現負利率,各國競相拋售美債、富豪逃離美國等情況,無不在表明美國經濟正在衰退。

163萬億出逃美國!大家都不想在美國玩了!全球經濟風險要變?

對經濟反應最敏感的是樓市,根據美國聯邦住房金融局(FHFA)更新的美國2020年第三季度以及9月的房價數據,結果顯示:在2020年9月,全美房價環比7月上漲了1.7%,這個單月漲幅是1991年有統計數據以來最大的,房屋庫存量處在低位。

事實上,這是美國通過大幅印鈔,降息的結果,截至2020年11月19日,全美三十年期按揭利率平均數只有2.72%,歷史新低,同時不到3個月的時間,美聯儲資產負債表,擴大了3萬億美元,從4萬億美元擴大到7萬億美元。

163萬億出逃美國!大家都不想在美國玩了!全球經濟風險要變?

而且根據評級機構穆迪預測,全美約30%的人(1500個家庭)可能會停止償還抵押貸款,彭博社稱這將是歷史上最大的違約浪潮,美國財經博客門戶網站零對沖的調查也顯示三分之二的受訪者表示接下去沒有能力償還房貸。

163萬億出逃美國!大家都不想在美國玩了!全球經濟風險要變?

根據美國國稅局9月發布的新國內移民數據顯示伊利諾伊州人正以創紀錄的數量離開了該州,截至2020年7月,有超過5420名百萬富翁逃離了該州。此外,華爾街金融大鱷喬治·索羅斯警告稱:至少會有24萬億美元(約163萬億人民幣)將從美國資本市場撤離出來,轉向收益更高的市場,截止7月,全球央行已經連續24個月大幅度凈拋售了達9865億美元的美債。

這一切都意味著美國資本市場對投資者的吸引力所剩無幾,儘快將投資從美國撤離出來是最明智的選擇。

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