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28600億!韓國外匯儲備創2年新高,卻擔憂遭美國“洗劫”? – 有海水的地方就有中國人

28600億!韓國外匯儲備創2年新高,卻擔憂遭美國“洗劫”?

28600億!韓國外匯儲備創2年新高,卻擔憂遭美國“洗劫”?
2,715

28600亿!韩国外汇储备创2年新高

根据韩国周三(11月4日)发布的最新数据显示,截至10月底,韩国外汇储备环比增加59.6亿美元,至4265.1亿美元(约合28600亿元人民币),创下2018年1月以来的最大增幅,这也是韩国从今年4月起连续7个月增加外储。

具体来看,在10月份韩国外汇储备资产中,有价证券环比增加45.7亿美元,至3836.6亿美元;预存款环比增加13.6亿美元,至305.1亿美元;国际货币基金组织特别提款权(SDR)环比增加1000万美元,至31.9亿美元;IMF储备头寸环比增加2000万美元,至43.6亿美元;黄金储备环比持平,为47.9亿美元。

虽说韩国表面外汇储备还算充裕,但该国的外债规模也不少。根据全球经济指标网(Trading Economics)数据显示,截至今年上半年,韩国外债规模达5031亿美元(约合33738亿元人民币),从往年数据来看,创下1995年以来最高水平。

这意味着什么?韩国已经”资不抵债”了。如果要和外债规模高达1.17万亿美元、外汇储备仅有5000余亿美元的印度相比,韩国的情况还算乐观。只不过,疫情期间,任何一点风险都足以引发”蝴蝶效应”。

况且全球疫情的加速蔓延,已经给依赖出口和全球供应链的韩国经济造成严重的创伤,韩国GDP快速下滑、经济结构失稳、韩企艰难求生等等。毕竟已有先例,1996年刚加入被称为富国俱乐部的OECD的韩国,也曾因为”资不抵债”崩盘。

金丝雀失声了!为何担忧被美国再次”洗劫”?

1960年代,为了刺激经济,韩国勒令银行按指导向该国财阀发放低息甚至负利率贷款,要求拿了贷款的财阀扩大生产,完成出口任务。由于政府提供了隐性担保,且更侧重出口的量,所以财阀往往只看规模和市占率,盲目扩张成为常态,导致企业负债率居高不下。1995年,韩国前30家财阀平均负债率高达428%。

到了1997年,韩国外债高达2000亿美元,其中短期债务就超1000亿美元,而外汇储备却只有300亿美元。更要命的是,所有人都想着有政府兜底,没人觉得债台高筑是个问题。直到1997年亚洲金融风暴来袭,韩国对该国破产企业们”袖手旁观”的做法,让外资不愿意再把钱借给韩国银行与企业。

至此,韩国经济拉开了崩盘的序幕,而韩国企业和银行没法从海外借到美元,提供美元的重任就完全落到了韩国央行肩上,韩国外汇储备急剧减少。万般无奈下,只能向由美国一手扶持建立IMF求助,最后成功渡过难关,但也失去了”经济自主权”。

总而言之,韩国的外债若是继续增长,加之该国经济又因为疫情严重下滑,很容易被美国金融洗劫,一旦美国经济出问题,极有可能被伤及。

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