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專家:特朗普和拜登無論誰當選 都不會放棄”台灣牌” – 有海水的地方就有中國人

專家:特朗普和拜登無論誰當選 都不會放棄”台灣牌”

專家:特朗普和拜登無論誰當選 都不會放棄”台灣牌”
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中国台湾网11月4日讯 (记者李柏涛 张乐雨 王琬涵) 美国大选结果牵动台海局势发展。特朗普或拜登当选美国总统,台海局势会发生哪些变化?大陆研究两岸关系的学者认为,不论二者谁入主白宫,都不会放弃用“台湾牌”牵制中国崛起战略意图,也不会改变中美博弈的基本态势;但也可以判断,基于美国利益,特朗普和拜登都不会支持“台独”。二者不同之处在于,拜登是美国老牌政客,他若当选,则不会挑战中美关系底线,因此台海局势的可预测性更强,其与蔡英文进行直接通话的可能性也不高。

两岸关系因民进党当局政治操弄陷入冰点,甚至有兵凶战危的风险。特朗普政府在美国大选进入最后阶段以来,频打“台湾牌”,民进党当局一面迎合美国,加快军购步伐,一面在岛内制造大陆军事威胁的舆论,造成两岸严重民意对抗。“中美台三角关系”在美国大选结果出炉后,会发生哪些微妙变化?台海局势是否也会随着一场政治大戏落幕而出现新走势?若拜登当选美国总统,是否会效仿特朗普与蔡英文通电话,亦或延续特朗普的做法,在两岸制造事端,使局势继续恶化?

“二人不论谁当选,都不会支持‘台独’,但利用‘台湾牌’牵制大陆的意图不会变。” 南京大学台湾研究所所长、教授、博士生导师刘相平判断。他认为,相较于特朗普,拜登的做法或不会有那么强的挑衅性,但他肯定不会收回早前通过的所谓美涉台法案。北京联合大学台湾研究院教授朱松岭则表示,不同于特朗普商人本色,拜登是华盛顿老牌政客,他的可预测性更强。如果特朗普连任,则会加剧两岸关系的不确定性及不可预测性,但民主党若能控制美国国会,则会牵制住特朗普,让其在打“台湾牌”时不能为所欲为,避免触碰中美关系底线。

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