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賴岳謙:中美實力差距縮小,美國的霸主地位難以維繫 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

賴岳謙:中美實力差距縮小,美國的霸主地位難以維繫

賴岳謙:中美實力差距縮小,美國的霸主地位難以維繫
2,705

自改革開放以來,全世界都在見證中國的快速發展。2020年,世界共同面對著新冠肺炎病毒這一挑戰,中國抗疫得力,成為了世界上唯一一個經濟保持正增長的主要經濟體。

而世界霸主美國,因為抗疫不力,新冠肺炎確診數和死亡數不斷攀升。疫情無疑也影響到了美國的發展,給美國的經濟帶來了極大的打擊。美國越來越難維繫霸主的地位,現在,世界好像也要見證美國的衰落。

賴岳謙:中美實力差距縮小,美國的霸主地位難以維繫

崛起與衰落

英國媒體路透社的一篇報道把中國快速發展引起了美國和其盟友的焦慮與英國當年焦慮自身的衰落作比較,認為兩者是一樣的。中國快速的工業化進程、相對收入的迅速提高都標誌著這是一個國家的崛起。從近30年的發展速度來看,中國是美國的數十倍。

中國在進步,美國卻在退步。前段時間,澳大利亞著名智庫洛伊國際政策研究所公布了2020年亞太地區26個國家的亞洲實力指數。排位在意料之中,美國排名第一,中國排名第二。不過美國的指數跌幅嚴重,相較去年下滑了三分之多。此消彼長之下,中美之間的實力差距在縮小。

賴岳謙:中美實力差距縮小,美國的霸主地位難以維繫

中美實力差距縮小

時事評論員賴岳謙認為,中國和美國的實力差距在逐漸縮小,美國的霸主地位難以維繫。因為中國在疫情期間控制得非常好,中國的經濟和工業能力在第二季度已經往上升了三點多,到了第三季度,中國的經濟還在持續發展中。

之前聯合國國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)認為中國能做到一點多,甚至最好預計也不過二點多。這些都不準確,所以IMF的評估一直在做修正。

賴岳謙:中美實力差距縮小,美國的霸主地位難以維繫

賴岳謙表示,在全世界的主要經濟體中,只有中國經濟是保持上升的。中國的經濟恢復得這麼快,到了明年又會往上沖一波。在2021年再往上走一個大台階,以此推類直到2024年,中國和美國的距離也就越來越近了。

所以有很多戰略家都在重新評估中國會在什麼時候趕上美國。之前有人認為2030年,有人估計2035年,可是現在一直在往前修正。當然有可能在2030年之前,中國就趕上了美國。

賴岳謙:中美實力差距縮小,美國的霸主地位難以維繫

不過,在軍事實力這一方面,短時間內中國沒有辦法超越美國。在其他方面,比如經濟、外交等,中國還是有把握超過美國。美國本身要維持霸主的地位越來越難,至少美國一直沒能做到控制疫情。

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