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3,552 12月03æ—¥ 在太平洋和印度洋之間，散落著一顆被眾神遺忘的珍珠。曹雪芹曾在《紅樓夢》一書中描述此地：島雲蒸大海，嵐氣接叢林。這個四面汪洋、雲煙蒸騰、雨林茂盛、嵐氣瀰漫的地方就是印度尼西亞，它還有個別稱，叫「萬島之國」。 盤踞在赤道之上的印尼，東西跨度5300公里的範圍內，足足遍布了17508個島嶼。這是什麼概念？哪怕一天去一個島，也要48年才能走遍。但這樣一個由島嶼拼湊起來的「散裝」國家，卻是東南亞最大的經濟體，也是公認的亞洲第三大經濟體，GDP總量僅次於中國和日本。 過去5年，印尼經濟維持5%以上的穩定增長，其不俗表現外界皆是有目共睹。因此印尼許下宏願，到了2045年，即是印尼獨立100周年的時候，該國將成為全球第五大經濟體，經濟總量達到7萬億美元，貧困率接近零，邁入全球發達國家行列。然而，印尼的快速崛起，對澳大利亞而言卻是極大的威脅，這是為何？ 印尼，澳大利亞曾經的夢魘 望一望世界地圖，澳大利亞位於南太平洋的大海上，彷彿孤懸海外。與周邊一群國小力弱的島嶼國家相比，這個領土面積達768.2萬平方公里、世界上唯一國土覆蓋整塊大陸、幅員遼闊的國家，簡直就是無所忌憚的巨無霸。 正是獲益於地理位置較為孤立的特點，澳大利亞幸運地躲過了第一次和第二次世界大戰的硝煙，事實上，澳洲自被殖民以來便幾乎未受到國際戰爭波及。遠離世界中心，周邊又無強敵，澳大利亞人的日子一向過得舒坦愜意，逍遙自在。 直到1941年太平洋戰爭爆發，日本向東南亞猛烈進軍，一時間菲律賓、馬來西亞諸國紛紛淪陷，連澳大利亞北部的印尼群島也不可避免地被攻佔。隔年2月，上百架日本飛機從印尼東北面直逼澳洲本土，投下炸彈轟炸了澳北部城市達爾文市，這是澳大利亞建國以來首次遭受的最嚴重的空襲，舉國震驚。 此次事件之後，日本以印尼群島為基地，1942年至1943年間還對澳大利亞實施了約一百次空襲，徹底打碎了澳洲長年的「和平夢」。 雖說，二戰後期在美國的攻擊下，日本力量日漸式微到完全敗北，讓澳大利亞成功熬過這一劫難；但是，這次經歷也讓澳洲對僅有一水相隔的印尼繃緊了神經，因為這位看似「散漫」的鄰居，實則隱患重重。一旦印尼崛起，其勢力或將滲入到南太平洋，很有可能再次成為澳洲北方巨大的威脅。 天生冤家，澳洲和印尼哪裡出了問題？ 作為隔海相望的鄰居，澳大利亞和印尼兩國的關係複雜多變，波折不斷。甚至可以說，是一對不折不扣的天生冤家，雙方的矛盾主要體現在歷史對抗、文化差異、利益糾紛。 首先，澳洲和印尼因為複雜的歷史和地緣政治關係，輪番上演各種愛恨情仇。 回顧歷史，二戰期間澳大利亞曾經與荷屬印尼並肩作戰，共同抗擊日本侵略者。1945年，經過八月革命後，印尼人宣布脫離荷蘭的殖民統治，成立印度尼西亞共和國，但是遭到英國和荷蘭的入侵，經過印尼人民的英勇抵抗和多次談判，1949年，荷蘭與印尼互相妥協，以荷印聯邦的形式存在。不過在1950年，印尼再次宣布建國，並成功加入聯合國。 需要一提的是，在1945~1950年印尼為獨立建國的鬥爭期間，澳大利亞選擇支持印尼人獨立，贏得了印尼人的好感。 然而，1950年兩國正式建交之後，澳大利亞借著荷蘭與印尼之間的西伊里安問題懸而不決的時機，站在了荷蘭的一邊，藉此打壓印尼。澳大利亞作為印尼敵人的支持者，嚴重影響了兩國關係。直到1963年，在美國肯尼迪政府的施壓下，荷蘭、澳大利亞才被迫從西伊里安撤出。 但1965年澳大利亞又抓住了打壓北方鄰居的機會。這一年，印尼與馬來西亞在加里曼丹島爆發領土爭端。澳大利亞與馬來西亞是英聯邦成員，直接派兵支持，與印尼對峙。最後在國際社會的斡旋下，印尼、馬來西亞和澳大利亞三方才達成和解，避免了一場硝煙。 在1975年，印尼企圖合併東帝汶的行為又引起了澳大利亞的強烈不滿。該國譴責印尼這一行為，並拒絕承認印尼對東帝汶的主權。1999年東帝汶獨立公投後，澳大利亞手持安理會的尚方寶劍，率領大部隊進駐東帝汶震懾印尼。印尼與澳大利亞關係就此宣告破裂。 雖然2006年以後，澳洲和印尼重修舊好，關係有所緩和。但是一系列對抗的歷史事件留下來的巨大傷痕，一時之間恐怕難以癒合，雙方之間始終存在隔閡。 其次，印尼和澳洲兩國文化差異巨大，宗教信仰完全對立。 作為世界最大的香料產地，印尼也是古時阿拉伯商人輾轉流連之地，13世紀以後，通過阿拉伯商人的積極傳教，伊斯蘭教終於在印尼落地生根。直至今日，有著2.67億的龐大人口的印尼，其中超過86%的人都信奉伊斯蘭教，這也意味著印尼是世界上擁有穆斯林人口最多的國家。 這恰好和承繼西方歐美文化的澳大利亞，所信奉的基督教相對立。 作為英國罪犯的流浪地，最初澳大利亞人口主體一直是英國移民，盎格魯-撒克遜族群。這個族群非常排斥亞洲人，對東南亞移民懷有深刻的戒心，高度嚴格地忠誠於母國，奉行白人至上主義，信奉主流的基督教。 後來英國勢力雪崩，澳大利亞失去原先的保護傘，但該國也做出了新的選擇：追隨美國，任憑差譴。延續了跟著頭號世界強國「抱粗腿」的百年傳統。 澳大利亞被茫茫大洋隔離在南半球，離歐亞大陸和美洲大陸太過遙遠，在以西方白人為主的澳大利亞社會，周邊卻是文化、人種都截然不同的東南亞。這種特殊的地理位置帶來的孤立感，逼著澳大利亞人下意識地主動親近西方主流社會，渴望得到後者的認同。 這樣的歷史情境下，澳洲和印尼就是錯誤的配對，一直格格不入、矛盾重重。 再者，澳大利亞視印尼為競爭對手，擔憂在華生意被搶。 澳大利亞歷來屬於外向型經濟體，極度依賴國際市場，其出口支柱產業主要是礦業、農業、旅遊業等等，但近來澳洲這些「吸金」產業正被崛起的印尼分流。 中國已經連續10年成為印尼最大的貿易夥伴，2020年上半年，中國與印尼非油氣產品貿易額為309.7億美元，其中印尼向中國出口額為128.3億美元，佔印尼對外出口總額的17.71%，居印尼出口目的國首位；印尼自中國進口額為181.4億美元，佔印尼進口總額的28.63%，居印尼進口來源國首位。 值得一提的是，煤炭是中印尼雙邊貿易中的重要商品，2015年到2019年，中國從印尼進口的煤炭從7300萬噸增至1.38億噸，增長近90%。近日在中印尼煤炭採購對接會上，中國煤炭進口企業與印尼煤炭出口企業簽訂了一項為期三年的煤炭供應協議，採購煤炭數量2872萬噸，金額14.67億美元（約合96億元人民幣）。 與此同時，自2016年以來，中國已成為印尼最大的國際遊客來源國。2019年印尼接待了來自世界各地的1611萬名遊客，其中中國市場貢獻了國際遊客入境量的12.9%。對於中國遊客來說，巴厘島是印尼旅遊的代名詞。印尼人的平和、團結、友善、重視家庭觀念與中國社會的價值觀非常一致。 與之相反的是，澳洲煤炭在華市場遭遇「滑鐵盧」，今年11月前三周澳洲煤炭對華出口已經暴跌了96%，目前滯留在我國近海的澳洲運煤船已升至82艘，這些貨物運載著880萬噸煤炭。 分析指出，2019\/2020財年澳大利亞對華資源出口總值將損失340億澳元。另外根據澳大利亞統計局的數據，僅是今年7月份，中國赴澳遊客數量就暴跌了99.9%。僅是拿礦業和旅遊業出來做對比，可替代性強的澳大利亞就已經輸給了印尼。 而眼看印尼「起高樓」，賺得盆滿缽滿，自己卻一敗塗地，心理不平衡的澳大利亞怎麼可能會對印尼好聲好氣？ 進擊的小巨人，印尼卻註定難成大器？ 話說回來，猶如一個小巨人般存在的印尼，該國領土面積有190多萬平方公里，是東南亞國土最大的國家，也是全球新興經濟體和萬億美元GDP俱樂部的重要代表。更別說，印尼還控制著馬六甲海峽這個世界級的戰略通道。但在國際社會中，印尼的存在感其實很低，這又是怎麼回事？ 第一，印尼是個內向型經濟體。該國國內家庭消費和投資貢獻了約90%的經濟增長，和其他新興經濟體相比，印尼並未深度參與全球價值鏈。在經濟全球化時代，這也造成了以內需為主導發展經濟的印尼存在感較弱。 第二，印尼人活得太過「兩極」，沒有凝聚力。印尼有五大島：爪哇島、蘇門答臘島、婆羅洲（加里曼丹島）、新幾內亞島和蘇拉威西島，不過該國53%的人口，都擠在僅占國土面積7%的爪哇島上。 於是出現這樣的景觀，位於爪哇島的印尼首都雅加達，高樓林立，車水馬龍，到處都是金光閃閃的金融中心，十分現代和開放。但其他島嶼卻是極度落寞：尚未開發的土地，大片的原始森林，泥濘不堪的小路，破舊的村莊，與首都脫節的發展，甚至處於「失語」的狀態。 不在爪哇島生活的居民，常常自嘲自己是「被遺忘的國民」。更重要的是，散漫自由的印尼人對集體榮譽感也不太強，比如沒有任何印尼人獲諾貝爾獎；躋身國際組織高層的印尼人也屈指可數；在2012年的倫敦奧運會上，擁有過億人口的印尼只派出了22位運動員…… 第三，印尼經濟的發展無法擺脫地緣結構和氣候條件的雙重製約。印尼的國家地理結構呈帶狀分布，東西國土間直線距離長達5000餘公里，跨越了三個時區，海岸線那麼長，島嶼那麼多，不愁沒有良港發展外貿，但偏偏印尼就是靠內需撐起一片天。 而且印尼四分五裂的地理格局卻潛藏了很多危機，比如各個島嶼間交通不便，經濟上自成一體等等。另外，位於赤道附近的印尼，一年四季濕熱多雨的氣候也制約了其工業發展。在此情況下，印尼就算有再大的體量，也不能最大限度轉化為經濟實力，在現實中印尼的國際影響力自然也排不上名。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9668,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/\u672a\u547d\u540d_\u526f\u672c-134_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C420","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":29411,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/09\/21\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%94%ae%e6%be%b3%e6%a0%b8%e6%bd%9b%e8%89%87%ef%bc%8c%e5%af%a6%e9%9a%9b%e4%b8%8a%e6%98%af%e4%b8%80%e6%ac%a1%e5%a4%a7%e6%92%a4%e9%80%80%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%89%e5%a4%a7%e5%b3%b6%e9%8f%88\/","url_meta":{"origin":9667,"position":0},"title":"\u7f8e\u570b\u552e\u6fb3\u6838\u6f5b\u8247\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u64a4\u9000\uff1a\u4e09\u5927\u5cf6\u93c8\u5168\u5b88\u4e0d\u4f4f\u4e86","date":"September 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