\u4e03\u95ee2020\u7f8e\u5229\u575a\u9009\u4e3e\u7591\u4e91<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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3,478 时至今日，美国大选结果迟迟未能最终落地，尽管拜登已经宣布高票胜选，但选举作弊问题疑云重重未能获解，胜利者的归属仍然处于争议之中。拜登的宝座能否坐稳？权力是否能顺利交接？建国发起的司法挑战真的是“无理取闹”吗？让我们拨云见雾，跨过常规的视角，来看看此次选举背后的不同寻常之处。 七问2020美利坚选举疑云 第一，宾夕法尼亚州，在计票结束后，由UPS负责承运的邮寄选票丢失30万张。享誉全球的国际快递公司，居然能够在自己国家最为重要的政治事项中丢失如此多的快递，不得不让人心生疑虑。那么这30万张选票到底是支持建国还是拜登的？基础选票的选民是否会关注选票丢失？丢失后为何会不了了之？ 第二，威斯康辛州约500万人口，但最终统计选票结果为1900万张，那么多出的1400万张选票是从何而来，是其他选区的选民的非注册选票，还是根本就是伪造出来的选票和幽灵选票？ 第三，密歇根州，在11月3日晚计票结束后，又多出13万8000张支持拜登的选票，这13万张选票几乎全是支持拜登，这13万张选票又是缘何而来？为何多出的选票全是支持拜登的？这13万张选票为何会突然冒出？ 第四，幽灵选票夜间浮出助力拜登击败建国。根据美国监督组织司法观察的数据显示，此次美国大选中，至少出现了250万张幽灵选票，其中不乏1905å’Œ1850年出生的人，都跳出来支持拜登。这些选票的人员信息在美国社会安全保障系统真是存在，但都是已故之人，由各个家庭的亲戚为已故之人代填选票。那么这250万张幽灵选票，分布在各州各郡，又会对选情造成怎样的影响？ 第五，美国选举观察组织，在沙地、水沟、砾石和垃圾场附近发现了大量的成捆的选票，其中大量选票支持建国，根据选票的来源地分析，其中大部分选票来自海外，还有一部分来自美军。那么这部分选票为何会被成捆抛弃？是否为了针对打击建国的选情而为？ 第六，11月3日晚8时前，7个摇摆州选情中5个州建国大比分领先，这一优势延迟到5日凌晨，然后形势大幅扭转，拜登一夜之间反超建国，以力挽狂澜之势锁定优势。为何在选举日之后的5日晚会发生突变？支持拜登的选票会集中在一夜之间同时送达？众议院议长佩洛西在大选前就发表讲话：“大选之夜无论计票结果如何，拜登都会成为总统”。那么佩洛西是如何做到在大选开始之前就笃定拜登一定能够胜选呢？还是民主党已经做好了让拜登确保“必胜”的准备？ 第七，根据宾夕法尼亚州宪法规定，只有11月3日晚邮寄到达的选票才有效，然而宾州最高法院在大选前几天发出司法动议，要求增加大选后3天之内的邮寄到选票都为有效。这一动议在宾州最高法院民主党4席位与共和党3席位的情况下通过，但这一动议实际并没有法律效力，必须要在宾州州议会通过才能成为法律条文，宾州最高法院并没有立法权。然而，宾州议会是共和党控制，对此表态至少需要两周时间研究法律，也就是大选之后才能做出投票表决是否同意这一司法动议。但是，宾州政府是民主党控制，跨国宾州议会，依据宾州最高法院的司法动议强行将11月3日之后寄到的选票计入有效票。在这种情形下，拜登在宾州全面领先。那么州政府跨过议会，强行改变计票规则的情况在其他情况是否也有发生？这一实际违宪的计票过程会不了了之吗？ 建国的两种下场：是做困兽之斗还是将釜底抽薪，力挽狂澜？ 是继续连任还是成为阶下囚？ 目前对于建国在做无谓挣扎且败局已经无力回天的论断，以及司法斗争是否徒劳的争论，其根本观点在于建国团队无法举证民主党选举作弊的实据。然而，根据坊间漏出的消息风向，以及建国团队资深人士对外透露的情况来看，事实可能并非像表面那样简单。美国前副国务卿、政界消息人士史蒂夫佩塞尼克向美国媒体透露，早在大选前，建国团队已经预料民主党将通过作弊来操控大选，因此，建国提前通过其私人律师鲁迪朱利安尼，与负责印制选票的美国国土安全部联合行动，在选票中添加了带有区块链编码的水印，这一水印可以追踪每一张选票的去向，也可以鉴别选票的真伪。此外，朱利安尼还在选前在摇摆州的计票场所秘密布设了更多的摄像头，用于监督在两党监督员不在场的时候，计票场所发生的情况。据称，朱利安尼非常有执行力，其在执政纽约期间，曾经正面遭遇911袭击，而正是朱利安尼在现场指挥各方力量进行救援和疏导，同时，朱利安尼亲历纽约的多次选举，并且对纽约选举中所发生的作弊行为有深刻的认识，所以在应对选举作弊的问题上，朱利安尼颇有经验。这也是朱利安尼作为建国私人律师能够深度参与选举核心事项的重要原因之一。 如果上面两个消息属实，那么建国就是在下一盘瓮中捉鳖的惊天大棋。建国希望民主党能够被“胜利”的喜悦所麻痹，让民主党和拜登尽情表演，在不经意间露出马脚。然后建国在搜集到充分的证据后，将通过司法挑战，对拜登发起全面反攻。那么建国究竟能否孤注一掷，能否力挽狂澜，还要看建国是否能够真正拿到拜登作弊的实际证据，也要看最高法院层面是否考虑硬抗民主党来力挺建国。建国是在做最后的挣扎，因为此次大选，不成功则成仁，建国失败后一定会遭受牢狱之灾。当然，如果建国能够拿到拜登操纵选举的证据，拜登同样也会遭受牢狱之灾。所以2020年的大选，是一场惊天动力的大选，是美国社会撕裂的标志性事件，也是一场你死我活的大选。至于建国能否成功翻盘，让我们静待1月20日再揭分晓。 此次大选“美剧”的四种结局 此次美国大选闹剧，充满了戏剧性，俨然已经将纸牌屋演绎到了现实当中。任何可能都会发生，根据当前的局势演进，以及美国宪法的规定，最终结局可能会出现三种情形： 第一，如果建国搜集到了民主党作弊、操控选举的实证，并且在摇摆州发起的司法挑战得到了最高法院的支持，并作出有利建国的判断，那么在重新计票后，建国将获得翻盘机会赢得大选。但这种情形发生的可能性非常小，因为距离1月20日仅剩两月，最高法院很难再这么短的时间内完成调查取证并作出裁决。 第二，如果最高法院大法官中的6名保守派是支持建国的，同时他们也认识到剩余的时间来不及完成对民主党作弊问题的取证和调查，那么最高法院6名保守派大法官会在6比3的绝对优势下，推动最高法院判决11月3日晚20点之后所计的票无效，11月3日晚建国处于绝对领先优势，将直接获得胜选。 第三，如果目前的乱局继续僵持，最高法院也没有在1月20日之前接受或完成针对选票作弊的调查取证，那么根据美国宪法，众议院将在20日作出裁决，宣布胜选者。毫无疑问，众议院将作出拜登胜选的判定，拜登将最终胜出。 第四，极端情形。如果最高法院没有支持建国，众议院作出拜登胜出的判定，建国有可能会作出极端选择，继续表示不接受败选结果，并号召其铁粉进一步在全国各州发起挺川游行。届时黑人等民主党的支持力量会考虑以武力将建国请出白宫，而白人民兵等建国铁粉则会持枪上街与黑人爆发冲突，内乱一触即发。美军已经明确表示不介入内部冲突，由于警察普遍支持建国，也不会干预冲突。美国将会因宪政危机而陷入内战，一发不可收拾。当然，这是最极端的情况。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8853,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/\u672a\u547d\u540d_\u526f\u672c-1244_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":9305,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/11\/28\/%e8%b3%93%e5%b7%9e%e6%95%97%e8%a8%b4%ef%bc%81%e3%80%80%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e6%80%92%e6%89%b9112%e8%90%ac%e7%a5%a8%e9%83%bd%e6%98%af%e6%86%91%e7%a9%ba%e5%87%ba%e7%8f%be%ef%bc%9a%e6%88%91\/","url_meta":{"origin":8852,"position":0},"title":"\u8cd3\u5dde\u6557\u8a34\uff01\u3000\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6012\u6279112\u842c\u7968\u90fd\u662f\u6191\u7a7a\u51fa\u73fe\uff1a\u6211\u624d\u662f\u58d3\u5012\u6027\u52dd\u9078","date":"November 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