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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\u674e\u663e\u9f99\u6307\u51fa\uff0cTPP\u548cRCEP\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u76ee\u7684\u800c\u7b7e\u8ba2\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u533a\u57df\u8d38\u6613\u5b89\u6392\u3002TPP\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u8981\u5c11\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u662f12\u4e2a\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u662f11\u4e2a\uff0c\u5374\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5404\u65b9\u627f\u8bfa\u548c\u6295\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\u4e2d\u5f88\u96be\u8986\u76d6\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5982\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ea7\u6743\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u6c47\u7387\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u800cRCEP\u8986\u76d6\u4e86\u4e9a\u592a\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\uff0c\u5360\u5230\u5168\u7403\u4eba\u53e3\u548cGDP\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u534f\u8bae\u8fbe\u4e0d\u5230TPP\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5411\u7740\u6d88\u9664\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u8d38\u6613\u4fbf\u5229\u5316\u8fc8\u51fa\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RCEP\u76ee\u524d\u7531\u4e1c\u76df\u5341\u56fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u65b0\u897f\u517015\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5171\u540c\u7b7e\u7f72\uff0c\u5982\u4eca15\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u56fd2019\u5e74\u7684\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u8fbe22.7\u4ebf\u4eba\uff0cGDP\u8fbe26\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u603b\u989d\u8fbe5.2\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5747\u5360\u5230\u5168\u7403\u603b\u91cf\u7684\u4e09\u6210\u5de6\u53f3\u3002RCEP\u534f\u5b9a\u4e2d\uff0c\u5404\u6210\u5458\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u7a0e\u51cf\u8ba9\u4ee5\u7acb\u5373\u964d\u81f3\u96f6\u5173\u7a0e\u3001\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u964d\u81f3\u96f6\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u4e3a\u4e3b\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

4,037 “我希望拜登能精力集中在同中国建立一个全面的建设性关系的框架上。这意味着你要确定在哪里竞争，在哪里可能会出问题，但两国不应该出现硬碰。”11月17日，新加坡总理李显龙在第三届创新经济论坛上表示，中美应该努力明确一些双方具有共同利益的领域，同时管控好可能出现分歧的领域。 李显龙用“相当震荡”来描述过去四年的中美关系。对于中美可以如何改善关系，李显龙认为，两国领导人的亲自接触是非常重要的，同时，两国必须了解是否有可能在某些领域携手合作。“这并不总是容易的，但是有可能的。” “美国优先”改变了美国的国际地位 当被问到特朗普的外交遗产对美国有何影响时，李显龙表示，人们对美国的看法会发生长久的改变，但这个转变并不是从特朗普开始的。“我认为，在过去十年中，已经发生了明显的转变。当你不断说‘美国优先’、‘让美国重新伟大’的时候，这其实是把美国利益的定义缩小了。” 李显龙说，“在此之前，美国政府对美国利益的认识是，通过与各个区域的伙伴合作、与盟国结盟等建立更为稳定的广泛利益。以前的政府是营造一个总体环境，使得许多国家都可以有序繁荣发展。美国是整体大计划的一部分，而且自己也遵循同样的规则……这不仅仅是为了自己，也是为了超越美国的更大利益。” 在李显龙看来，美国要想回到这样的立场需要时间，要让其他国家相信它正在回归也需要时间，“也可能美国永远不会回到这样的立场”。 拜登上台后对华姿态或有所缓和 至于特朗普的政策对美国新一届政府的对华关系会有什么影响，李显龙认为，“特朗普政府中确实有一些人想采取一些行动，让下一届政府难以扭转局面，以便为未来的长期关系定下基调。”以惩罚性关税为例，他指出，“一旦实施，不管有没有好处，后来的政府也不会轻易地说这事做错了，要把它取消。” 另外，在技术领域，李显龙指出，特朗普政府针对中国的尖锐言论也将是有后果的。“在技术方面，你如何定义你的对手，是把他看作竞争对手、挑战者、战略威胁，还是一个正面的敌人？我想，在这方面发出的声明是会有后果的。” 李显龙认为，很多美国总统在竞选期间发表过对华激烈的言论，但是在上台之后却同中国开展了大量合作，“我希望下一届美国政府也能这样做”。 但李显龙也承认，这可能会更难，“因为把中国视作战略威胁的看法基本上已在华盛顿成为共识”。“不管是拜登，还是特朗普，美国任何一届政府都将难以忽视这一点，假装过去几年什么都没有发生，继续前进，这个是很难的。” 没有国家会加入冷战色彩的反华联盟 如果拜登政府联合盟友建立一个针对中国的联盟，新加坡是否愿意加入？李显龙回应道，现在已经不是冷战时代，没有国家会加入一个反对中国的联盟。 “我们都希望与美国合作，我们都希望与其他充满活力的经济体合作，我们希望在本地区进行合作。但我想没有多少国家愿意加入一个联盟来反对那些被排除在外的国家，而中国将会是这些国家的领头羊。” 李显龙说，不仅新加坡不会加入，欧洲国家也不会加入这样的联盟。“有很多国家愿意和中国做生意，比如，欧盟正试图同中国达成一项投资协议，这个是完全可以理解的。” “我们希望每个国家都能够参与到讨论中来，努力对世界秩序做出一些调整。在这个过程中，各个国家会形成联盟互相合作，找到共同的目标和事业，但是形成一种冷战风格的对峙阵营，我觉得这不太可能。” 美国重返TPP的时机还不成熟 美国在奥巴马时期极力推动的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP），被很多人认为是为了遏制中国的产物。拜登政府是否会重返TPP，以此为手段对抗中国？对此，李显龙回应道，希望美国能够有一天重返全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（CPTPP），但是现在的时机还不成熟。 “TPP最初是非常活跃的，最早的‘派对’上有12个人，后来有1个人不玩了，现在只剩下11个了，但‘派对’还在进行之中。我想这要归功于日本前首相安倍先生，是他把‘派对’上剩下的人团结了起来。”李显龙说道。 对于拜登政府可能对CPTPP采取的态度，李显龙分析道，民主党的选民可能对此不感兴趣。他说，虽然奥巴马政府曾经很感兴趣，时任国务卿希拉里也完全支持参与TPP，但当她竞选美国总统时就否认了这一点，“这就是美国的政治现实”。 “我认为这个协议对美国来说仍然是有意义的，但它必须在国内政治上也有意义才行，而这需要时间，会根据不同的经济形势进行调整，以及根据美国的政治格局进行调整。” RCEP的签订发出了团结合作的信号 对于亚太15国刚刚签署的区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)，李显龙表示，这是协议向外界发出了一个清晰的信号，那就是，不管外面的世界在发生什么，亚太地区都将坚定推动区域一体化发展，因为各方相信互利合作、互惠贸易比单打独斗强得多，这在当前的困难时期尤为重要。 李显龙指出，TPPå’ŒRCEP是为了不同目的而签订的不同的区域贸易安排。TPP参与的经济体要少一些，最初是12个，现在是11个，却是一个各方承诺和投入更多的协议，涵盖了很多贸易谈判中很难覆盖的领域，如知识产权，甚至是汇率问题。而RCEP覆盖了亚太所有主要经济体，除了印度，占到全球人口和GDP的三分之一，虽然协议达不到TPP的深度，但仍然是向着消除贸易壁垒、提高贸易便利化迈出的重要一步。 RCEP目前由东盟十国以及中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰15个国家共同签署，如今15个成员国2019年的总人口达22.7亿人，GDPè¾¾26万亿美元，出口总额达5.2万亿美元，均占到全球总量的三成左右。RCEP协定中，各成员之间关税减让以立即降至零关税、十年内降至零关税的承诺为主。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8617,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/\u672a\u547d\u540d_\u526f\u672c-1005_\u526f\u672c_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C388","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":46997,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/08\/24\/%e5%a4%a7%e5%9c%8b%e6%89%93%e6%9e%b6%ef%bc%8c%e5%b0%8f%e5%9c%8b%e9%81%ad%e6%ae%83%ef%bc%9b%e6%96%b0%e5%8a%a0%e5%9d%a1%e9%81%bf%e5%85%8d%e5%9c%a8%e4%b8%ad%e7%be%8e%e4%b9%8b%e9%96%93%e7%ab%99\/","url_meta":{"origin":8611,"position":0},"title":"\u5927\u570b\u6253\u67b6\uff0c\u5c0f\u570b\u906d\u6b83\uff1b\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u907f\u514d\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u9593\u201c\u7ad9\u968a\u201d","date":"August 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