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2,805 拜登被认为赢得2020年美国大选，但特朗普拒绝承认失败，并且解雇了国防部长埃斯珀，引发外界对特朗普将进行疯狂举动的担忧。从现在到就职日，外界能期待特朗普总统做些什么呢?美国《国会山报》10月发表了一篇题为“特朗普作为跛脚鸭总统可能会做的10件事”的文章，称特朗普可能会煽动美国国内的政治动荡，在国际上，特朗普可能制造一场真实或虚构的国际政治危机。 该文章称，“过渡完整性项目”提出了以下一些设想，以确定2020年选举和过渡过程的完整性的潜在风险。以下是未来11周可能出现的10种情况： 1、竞选到2021å¹´1月。特朗普在法庭上行使寻求矫正的权利并不违法，甚至不合适。然而，在选举后的几天里，他已经让多个案件被驳回。对于任何实际成功向前推进的法律挑战，总统作为索赔人将需要提出实际的法律索赔，证明他的论据与事实和证据，并匹配他的索赔给他实际和适当的救济。所有这些都表明，随着当选总统拜登获得300多张选举人团选票，在这个时候，任何竞选挑战都很可能是没有意义的。这种情况发生的几率：中等到很高。 2、煽动国内政治动荡。作为一个在一定程度上通过调动政治基础采取行动的明显技巧来定义自己的总统，在现在到1月中旬之间制造或鼓励国内政治动荡将不是什么新鲜事。这种情况发生的几率很高。 3、严重扰乱行政过渡进程。在即将到来的向拜登政府的过渡中，总统很容易成为障碍，而不是盟友。由于总务管理局署长拒绝允许过渡进程开始，这一进程已经开始。这种情况发生的几率非常高。 4、制造一场真实或虚构的国际政治危机。更实际的做法可能是，通过协助政变、执行任务等方式，偿还外国政府的个人和政治利益。这种情况发生的几率：低到中等。 5、赦免很多人。当然，要想在这方面超越前总统奥巴马将需要一些工作。在过去的10位总统中，从2016年总统大选到奥巴马离任期间，奥巴马一共赦免了300次，是第二名总统赦免次数的8倍。同样值得注意的是，奥巴马赦免的这300次，比他担任总统的头7年零10个月多292次。面对如此高的门槛，特朗普总统能做到吗?绝对的。赦免，尽管偶尔是意识形态上的，却是很好的政治货币。每一次赦免都有可能转化为总统和特朗普家族的后总统利润。这种情况发生的几率非常高。 6、变得更富有。即使是跛脚鸭总统也有大量剩余权力。他肯定会利用他的总统任期来处理未来的个人和家族事务，而不是退休和写书。在接下来的几周里，他将有很多机会帮上忙。无论特朗普总统采取的行动是提供即时的经济回报，还是只是为大片土地播下种子，等待日后收获，很难想象他会不会不为自己敛财而采取行动。这种情况发生的几率非常高。 7、非法使用总统品牌。特朗普总统终其一生都将自己定义为品牌缔造者，在一些圈子里，他的个人和专业品牌比他升任总统时强大得多。近代史上的每一位总统在卸任后都从自己的品牌中获得了巨大的收益。现在的问题是，特朗普总统还在执政期间，是否会寻求从总统品牌中获利。这可以采取多种形式，包括非法使用美国总统的名字和印章(想象一下“白宫汉堡”)，或者在总统任期内创办后企业(想象一下成立特朗普媒体公司和从白宫西翼进行广播)。这种情况发生的几率:中等到很高。 8、销毁文件。人们可以想象，特朗普总统肯定拥有他不希望看到公布的某些资产(实物文件、录音、电子文件)。同样，他既不是第一个也不是最后一个在离任前销毁文件的总统。破坏的规模是否会过大，最好留给个人想象。这种情况发生的几率很高。 9、继续签署执行命令。虽然公众一直认为特朗普总统在任期内签署了很多行政命令，但这是不准确的。特朗普总共签署了193条行政命令，平均每年47.8条。相比之下，卡特总统每年的80个，威尔逊总统的225个，胡佛总统的242个，以及罗斯福总统的307个。然而，鉴于总统在任期结束前可以自由发布行政命令，这可能是特朗普在未来几周行使实际权力的一种政治和实践上的权宜之计。这种情况发生的几率：中等到很高。 10、拒绝离开白宫。从法律上讲，情况很简单。如果特朗普总统在指定日期不离开白宫，他将是非法侵入，肯定会被撤职。“武装民兵包围白宫、让总统稳坐权力宝座”的疯狂想象，更多的是电视电影里的东西，而不是现实。愤怒的注意力持续时间是有限的，考虑到2020年到目前为止的进度，1月份还有很长的路要走。这种情况发生的几率极低<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8125,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/IJtiUCWCM7-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C416","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":9016,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/11\/25\/%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e6%ad%a3%e5%bc%8f%e6%88%90%e4%ba%86%e8%b7%9b%e8%85%b3%e9%b4%a8%e4%bb%8d%e5%8f%af%e4%bb%a5%e4%b9%98%e5%9d%90%e7%a9%ba%e8%bb%8d%e4%b8%80%e8%99%9f\/","url_meta":{"origin":8124,"position":0},"title":"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6b63\u5f0f\u6210\u4e86\u201c\u8ddb\u8173\u9d28\u201d\u4ecd\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e58\u5750\u201c\u7a7a\u8ecd\u4e00\u865f\u201d\u5230\u660e\u5e74\u4e00\u6708","date":"November 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