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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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2,833 美国的选战到了这个地步，赢家不像赢家，输家不像输家。甚至输家还在居高临下地鄙视赢家。拜登一方明明是赢家，但气势上却始终起不来。 据美媒当地时间11月7日的统计，拜登已经获得超过270张选举人票，锁定胜局。但纵观整个选战过程，拜登一方赢得并不漂亮。 尽管英德法、加拿大、爱尔兰等国的首脑已经纷纷祝贺拜登胜选，但出于严谨，现在还不能正式确认拜登赢得了美国总统大选。更何况，拜登拿够了票数，也无法成为“全体美国人的总统”。美国内部的严重撕裂，让特朗普有足够的底气蔑视拜登。 第一、计票并未完成。更何况只有在得到美国联邦总务署的确认之后，美国总统的权力移交才能开始。截至目前，联邦总务署并未就选举结果发表正式声明。特朗普还有最后的机会。 第二、特朗普既不示弱，更不服气，他拒绝承认败选，拒绝打电话给拜登，并宣称要采取法律行动，将翻盘希望押宝在诉讼上。他还蔑称拜登“冒充获胜者”。 第三、虽然很多美国媒体和拜登的支持者们开始了庆祝，但庆祝的时候有多嚣张，反作用力就有多强。特朗普的不少支持者已经出离愤怒，拒绝承认拜登胜选。拜登还没入主白宫，美国社会的裂痕已经变成了裂谷。该头疼的似乎不是特朗普。 从特朗普发现无法胜选之后的言论来看，颇有“天欲亡我，非战之罪”的意思。而事实其实也正是如此。 如果在2020å¹´1月有人声称拜登可以击败特朗普，那么这种言论可以说是天方夜谭。但不期而遇的疫情，以及特朗普当局的错误应对，意外触发了连锁反应。可以说，美国经济受到新冠肺炎的冲击，应该是拜登此次能够胜选的最大助力。 1、经济问题成为左右大选的最关键因素。美国实际GDP在2020年第二季度创纪录暴跌31.4%，尽管第三季第在统计上耍了花样，账面上实现33.1%的报复性增长，但依然无法挽回损失。按照美联储2020å¹´6月的估测，本年度美国GDP增速将是-6.5%。所受的内伤超过了2008年金融危机。 2、失业率不断蹿高。2020å¹´4月，美国失业率一度接近15%，为1929年大萧条以来的最高峰。虽然在2020å¹´9月降到了将近8%，但比奥巴马时期还是差了不少。即便在大选前两周，还有超过75万人领取失业救济。于是乎，居高不下的失业率自动成为拜登的“催票机”。 3、民众这3年多对特朗普的不满转化为投票的动力。而投票率高对民主党有利。美国大选的一个潜在规律就是民主党在高投票率的时候能够占到便宜，共和党则在低投票率时占上风。这次在大选前2天就已经有9000万选民投票，总投票人数创造数十年来新高，无疑是拜登的福音。 纵观以往，福特、卡特、老布什都是因为任内发生经济衰退而无法连任。特朗普这次也“中招”。把拜登推到总统宝座的选票里，很大程度上来自于对特朗普的不满，而非对拜登的完全满意和诚心支持。 现在真正考验的是拜登一方。面对一个烂摊子，是否有足够的能力去化解和摆平。最大的问题是，拜登的“药方”到底管不管用，其实也并未得到验证。他的承诺能否实现，还是个未知数。 拜登阵营的基本主张是：通过对内重塑民主、恢复团结，对外推进所谓的“中产外交”，重振霸权和盟友体系，进而尽可能扩大和延长“霸权红利”。 画下的大饼主要有：“重振中产”、“打造美国新社会”等，主要目的还是治疗“美国病”。问题是，从2008年拜登成为副总统时，就已经许诺要解决这些棘手难题，但折腾了8年，基本原地踏步，否则也不会有特朗普的4年。 如今很多城市选民和精英发现，虽然民主党是温吞吞，但更无法接受特朗普的“美国优先”。当温水里的青蛙，好过兜头一盆开水。反正美国的“霸权红利”还能至少再享受20年，怎么混不是混。 而对美国中低收入阶层来说，特朗普的“胡拆乱建”虽然鲁莽和用力过猛，但总比民主党的混日子强，他们要的是改变。尤其是这些“受损害的人”认为全球化并未塑造互利共赢，反而令他们遭到遗弃。 随着美国经济总量占世界的比重持续下滑，再过数年将低于20%，其国内市场规模和购买力占据的比重也在萎缩。未来谁能够引领世界，取决于中产规模和市场规模。一个垂垂老矣的拜登，恰好赶上了“大变局”。 在缩减贫富差距、减少不平等方面，留给拜登的时间不会太多。以拜登的年龄，他恐怕无法连任。而选民的耐心也不会持续多久，很多人要的就是“立刻马上见效”。 当家三年狗也嫌。美国的民意如流水，更如钟摆，每隔4年或8年就会漂移一次。现在热烈支持拜登的人，在数年后也很可能成为抨击拜登最猛烈的人。 特朗普输了吗？并没有。尽管他成为美国30年来第一个无法连任的现任总统，尽管他的那句名言——你被炒了（You’refired）——也因拜登支持者而冲上了热搜。但恐怕很多人都会坚信，特朗普没有输给拜登，只是输给了疫情。拜登能够以“当选总统”身份发表讲话，可这个“当选总统”的成色并不足。 只要特朗普所代表的思潮和支持者们还在，拜登就不算真的赢。老特朗普虽然会离开白宫，但只要拜登在接下来的几年里碌碌无为，那么下次大选恐怕还会有“新特朗普”出现。就在这种绝望的轮回里，灯塔将一步步走下神坛。（完）返回搜狐，查看更多声明：该文观点仅代表作者本人，搜狐号系信息发布平台，搜狐仅提供信息存储空间服务。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8033,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/trump-biden_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":8307,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/11\/13\/%e6%8b%9c%e7%99%bb%e5%8b%9d%e5%87%ba%e4%b9%9f%e6%b2%92%e7%94%a8%ef%bc%8c%e5%8f%aa%e8%a6%81%e9%80%99%e5%80%8b%e6%a9%9f%e6%a7%8b%e4%b8%8d%e7%99%bc%e8%a9%b1%ef%bc%8c%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e5%b0%b1\/","url_meta":{"origin":8032,"position":0},"title":"\u62dc\u767b\u52dd\u51fa\u4e5f\u6c92\u7528\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u9019\u500b\u6a5f\u69cb\u4e0d\u767c\u8a71\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c31\u80fd\u4e00\u76f4\u8cf4\u8457\u4e0d\u8d70","date":"November 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