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2,593 全世界都在关注大选结果，尤其是台湾。台南成功大学政治学系副教授蒙志成认为，在美国大选尘埃落定前，会是大陆测试台湾底气，以及美国防卫台湾决心的契机。从现在开始，到新任美国总统宣誓就职之前，可能是台海出现军事冲突的危机时刻。 另一方面，进入11月，解放军军机每天都进入台湾西南空域，巡航已成日常活动。用台媒的话说，“从清晨至夜晚都来，让台湾空军战备必须时时保持紧绷”。有分析认为，大家在报道中看到的战机身影，仅是冰山一角，解放军战机多次飞行演练的背后，是一次又一次整体作战系统的大操演，大陆已做好随时应对一切挑战的准备。 频繁现身台西南空域的运-8反潜机（台军方示意图） 难怪台湾退役“中将”高安国日前在接受采访时表示：“两岸只要一开战，台湾就没有一个安全的地方，没有前线后方之分。台湾就那么一点大，一旦全面轰炸，台湾定会体无完肤。”不过，他同时指出，大陆应该不会这么做，而是主要针对雷达站、导弹基地、海空军机场港口、网络通讯系统等军事设施。所以，他提醒说：“如果你家离这些军事设置在1.5公里范围内，那么是时候考虑搬家了。” 的确，今年以来，台当局挟美自重的“台独”行为越来越猖狂，大陆也从未承诺放弃使用武力，且明确表态“能力始终都在，意志坚定不移”。现在大家关心的是，两岸何时开打？尽管很多时候战争是突然发生的，但并非毫无预兆。那么，倘若台海真有战事发生，会有什么前兆出现呢？ 解放军海军陆战队 综合各方专家的观点，以下几个方面值得关注—— 其一，股市动向。战争一旦要发生，股市绝不可能没有波动，尤其是两岸股价、货币皆不跌反涨，台湾股票会大跌，外资会纷纷跑路。 其二，市场与物价反应。物价突然上涨，说明有人趁机囤积大量生活物资，这时就要好好审视一下，是不是会爆发武装冲突；倘若市场上没出现囤积战略物资的恐慌情形，那爆发冲突的可能性就有限。 其三，海运空运情况。台湾四面环海，海上交通发达，国际贸易仰赖海上运输，一旦开战，必受影响。如果海运空运一切平稳，没有出现大幅上涨的情况，就算上空军机飞来飞去，也不用太担心。倘若海运空运都出现运费大幅上涨的情况，就需要提高警惕了。 高雄港 其四，美国撤侨。美台之间有个“撤侨”计划，按照该计划，持有美国护照的在台美国公民，在收到美军广播电台播放的“撤侨”命令12小时内，必须前往台北、高雄、基隆三地报到，以便美军运输机舰进行后撤作业。两岸若起战事，美国必定会提前撤侨。 其五，舆论动向。当一个国家进入战备状态时，媒体一定会占据舆论制高点，做相应的宣传攻势。”兵马未动,舆论先行”,是许多国家军事指挥者的重要手段。新闻舆论在战争中发挥着动员民众、凝聚人心、鼓舞士气、瓦解敌军的作用；还能起到先声夺人，争取国内国际主动权的重要作用。所以，看舆论动向，是警示还是放狠话，话说到什么程度，也是评判何时开战的风向标之一。 其六，大规模军事演习。军演不仅是常规训练手段，特定环境下也有掩盖战略意图、威慑敌人的作用。历史上有许多战争都是借演习之名，公开把部队部署在敏感区域，然后出其不意发起致命一击。 解放军海上实兵实弹演习，对海上目标进行连续打击 当然，以上几种情况，倘若单独出现，并不能说明什么，但如果同时出现，或是在一段时间内频繁发生，那就要提高警惕了。事实上，未来的统一之战，多半会突然发起、迅速结束，绝不会打成旷日持久的传统消耗战，以便把对两岸同胞的伤害降到最低。 但另一方面，不到最后一刻，我们也不会放弃和平统一的可能性。毕竟，是战争就会有伤亡，两岸同胞本是一家人，本着中国人不打中国人的原则，和平努力不到最后一刻，我们不会放弃。即便最后动用武力，针对的也只是“台独”分裂势力。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7897,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/1h4fpebNLa-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C416","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":10645,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/12\/20\/%e8%a7%a3%e6%94%be%e8%bb%8d%e6%89%93%e5%8d%a1%e5%bc%8f%e8%87%a8%e5%8f%b0%ef%bc%8c%e5%8f%b0%e7%b6%a0%e7%87%9f%e5%8f%88%e4%bd%9c%e5%a6%96%ef%bc%8c%e6%8f%9a%e8%a8%80%e6%94%bb%e6%93%8a%e5%a4%a7\/","url_meta":{"origin":7896,"position":0},"title":"\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd\u6253\u5361\u5f0f\u81e8\u53f0\uff0c\u53f0\u7da0\u71df\u53c8\u4f5c\u5996\uff0c\u63da\u8a00\u201c\u653b\u64ca\u5927\u9678\u6838\u96fb\u5ee0\u201d","date":"December 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