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2,429 中国台湾网11月4日讯 (记者李柏涛 张乐雨 王琬涵) 美国大选结果牵动台海局势发展。特朗普或拜登当选美国总统，台海局势会发生哪些变化？大陆研究两岸关系的学者认为，不论二者谁入主白宫，都不会放弃用“台湾牌”牵制中国崛起战略意图，也不会改变中美博弈的基本态势；但也可以判断，基于美国利益，特朗普和拜登都不会支持“台独”。二者不同之处在于，拜登是美国老牌政客，他若当选，则不会挑战中美关系底线，因此台海局势的可预测性更强，其与蔡英文进行直接通话的可能性也不高。 两岸关系因民进党当局政治操弄陷入冰点，甚至有兵凶战危的风险。特朗普政府在美国大选进入最后阶段以来，频打“台湾牌”，民进党当局一面迎合美国，加快军购步伐，一面在岛内制造大陆军事威胁的舆论，造成两岸严重民意对抗。“中美台三角关系”在美国大选结果出炉后，会发生哪些微妙变化？台海局势是否也会随着一场政治大戏落幕而出现新走势？若拜登当选美国总统，是否会效仿特朗普与蔡英文通电话，亦或延续特朗普的做法，在两岸制造事端，使局势继续恶化？ “二人不论谁当选，都不会支持‘台独’，但利用‘台湾牌’牵制大陆的意图不会变。” 南京大学台湾研究所所长、教授、博士生导师刘相平判断。他认为，相较于特朗普，拜登的做法或不会有那么强的挑衅性，但他肯定不会收回早前通过的所谓美涉台法案。北京联合大学台湾研究院教授朱松岭则表示，不同于特朗普商人本色，拜登是华盛顿老牌政客，他的可预测性更强。如果特朗普连任，则会加剧两岸关系的不确定性及不可预测性，但民主党若能控制美国国会，则会牵制住特朗普，让其在打“台湾牌”时不能为所欲为，避免触碰中美关系底线。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7855,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/2020_1104_f2bca128j00qj9j0d000ic000f3008hc_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C383","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":8136,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/11\/12\/%e5%b3%b6%e5%85%a7%e8%b3%87%e6%b7%b1%e4%ba%ba%e5%a3%ab%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e8%ae%8a%e5%a4%a9%ef%bc%8c%e5%8f%b0%e6%b5%b7%e5%b1%80%e5%8b%a2%e6%80%8e%e9%ba%bd%e8%ae%8a%ef%bc%9f\/","url_meta":{"origin":7854,"position":0},"title":"\u5cf6\u5167\u8cc7\u6df1\u4eba\u58eb\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u201c\u8b8a\u5929\u201d\uff0c\u53f0\u6d77\u5c40\u52e2\u600e\u9ebd\u8b8a\uff1f","date":"November 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