<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u25c6\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u56de\u4e0d\u5230\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6b63\u89e3\u5c40\u51fa\u54c1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u51b3\u6218\u6b63\u5f0f\u6253\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b2c59\u5c4a\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u7559\u4efb\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u62dc\u767b\uff0c\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u90fd\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u6700\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u975e\u5178\u578b\u653f\u5ba2\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u76844\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u4e0d\u6309\u7167\u5957\u8def\u51fa\u724c\uff0c\u628a\u4e16\u754c\u539f\u6709\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\u6405\u5f97\u4e00\u56e2\u4e71\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6709\u4eba\u56e0\u6b64\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u843d\u8d25\uff0c\u4f1a\u5229\u597d\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u771f\u7684\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c2\u52a0\u7ade\u9009\u9020\u52bf\u6d3b\u52a8<\/p>\n\n\n\n

01<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u7ade\u4e89\u7a7a\u524d\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u9009<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u6b21\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u56fd\u5916\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4e5f\u6ce8\u5b9a\u662f\u6781\u5176\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u9047\u5230\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u5dde\u5f00\u59cb\u63d0\u524d\u6295\u7968\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u90ae\u9012\u6295\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u8bf4\uff0c\u6709\u5c06\u8fd11\u4ebf\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u6c11\u5728\u5927\u9009\u65e5\u524d\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u6210\u6295\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u63d0\u524d\u6295\u7968\u6700\u591a\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u67091.5\u4ebf\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u9009\u6c11\u6295\u7968\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u53c2\u4e0e\u4eba\u6570\u6700\u591a\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5927\u75ab\u5f53\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f88\u591a\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u6c14\u6e29\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f88\u4f4e\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u7ebd\u7ea6\u6c14\u6e29\u5df2\u7ecf\u8dcc\u523010\u2103\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u9009\u6c11\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u6392\u8d77\u4e86\u957f\u961f\uff0c\u6392\u597d\u51e0\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u961f\uff0c\u4eb2\u81ea\u6295\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9009\u6c11\u4eec\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e0c\u671b\u7528\u9009\u7968\u6765\u505a\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u6700\u540e\u5173\u5934\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u62dc\u767b\uff0c\u8fd8\u5728\u94c6\u8db3\u4e86\u52b2\u513f\u505a\u6700\u540e\u7684\u51b2\u523a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5148\u770b\u7279\u6717\u666e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

11\u67081\u65e5\uff0c\u5927\u5468\u672b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4ece\u5317\u5230\u5357\uff0c\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u57285\u4e2a\u5dde\u4e3e\u529e\u7ade\u9009\u96c6\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u65e9\u4e0a8\u70b9\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u4ece\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5dde\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u662f\u827e\u5965\u74e6\u3001\u5317\u5361\u7f57\u6765\u7eb3\u3001\u4f50\u6cbb\u4e9a\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u5230\u8fbe\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u573a\u96c6\u4f1a\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5df2\u662f\u6df1\u591c11\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

11\u67082\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7ee7\u7eed\u5954\u8d744\u4e2a\u5dde\uff0c\u4e3e\u529e5\u573a\u7ade\u9009\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0b\u9762\u662f\u5728\u5e95\u7279\u5f8b\u7684\u5965\u514b\u5170\u90e1\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u6c14\u6e29\u53ea\u6709\u4e2a\u4f4d\u6570\uff0c\u8fd8\u522e\u7740\u98ce\u3001\u4e0b\u7740\u96e8\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6491\u7740\u4f1e\uff0c\u90fd\u88ab\u522e\u5f97\u6709\u4e9b\u7ad9\u4e0d\u7a33\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

74\u5c81\uff0c\u5403\u5f97\u8fd9\u4efd\u82e6\u5934\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd8\u771f\u7684\u4f69\u670d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5e72\u52b2\u513f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u62dc\u767b\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\uff0c\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u6ca1\u95f2\u7740\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6296\u97f3\u4e0a\u5c31\u6d41\u4f20\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u70ed\u95e8\u89c6\u9891\uff0c\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u50cf\u63a8\u9500\u5458\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4eb2\u81ea\u6253\u7535\u8bdd\u7ed9\u964c\u751f\u7684\u9009\u6c11\uff0c\u62dc\u6258\u9009\u6c11\uff0c\u52a8\u5458\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5bb6\u4eba\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u6295\u7968\u652f\u6301\u62dc\u767b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u642c\u51fa\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u52a9\u9635\u4e0d\u7a00\u5947\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u50cf\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u8fd9\u6837\u7535\u8bdd\u50ac\u7968\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u7f55\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u867d\u7136\u90fd\u53ea\u662f\u5c0f\u7ec6\u8282\uff0c\u4f46\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7ade\u4e89\u6fc0\u70c8\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7a7a\u524d\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

02<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5927\u52bf\u4e0d\u5999<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5f88\u62fc\uff0c\u5728\u5148\u524d\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u8fa9\u8bba\u4e2d\u706b\u529b\u4e5f\u5f88\u731b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u5f88\u53ef\u60dc\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u5f62\u52bf\uff0c\u5bf9\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5341\u5206\u4e0d\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u62ff\u4e0b\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u4f4d\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u662f\u62ff\u4e0b538\u5f20\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u7684\u591a\u6570\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u81f3\u5c11270\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6839\u636eCNN\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u80dc\u5238\u5728\u63e1\u7684\u6709203\u7968\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ea\u6709125\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u6b21\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5916\u4eba\u770b\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6c14\u52bf\u5f88\u8db3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u5728\u5404\u7c7b\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u60c5\u7f51\u7ad9270toWin\u3001RealClearPolitics\u7b49\u7684\u5927\u9009\u5730\u56fe\u3001\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4eba\u7b49\u5404\u7c7b\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u90fd\u51e0\u4e4e\u201c\u8eba\u8d62\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ece\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u795d\u798f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u867d\u7136\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6765\u770b\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5927\u52bf\u4e0d\u5999\uff0c\u4f46\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u90ae\u9012\u9009\u7968\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u8ba1\u7968\u4e5f\u5c06\u5f02\u5e38\u590d\u6742\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u3001\u4e9a\u5229\u6851\u90a3\u5dde\u5728\u524d\u51e0\u5468\uff0c\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u9884\u5148\u5904\u7406\u90ae\u5bc4\u9009\u7968\u3002\u4f46\u5a01\u65af\u5eb7\u661f\u5dde\u3001\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\uff0c\u4ece11\u67083\u65e5\u624d\u80fd\u5f00\u59cb\u5904\u7406\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u4ee5\u5f80\u51e0\u6b21\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u5f53\u5929\u665a\u4e0a\uff0c\u6700\u8fdf\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\u51cc\u6668\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u77e5\u9053\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u8fd9\u6b21\uff0c\u5f00\u51fa\u6700\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u662f\u53bb\uff0c\u662f\u7559\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u7b49\u4e0a\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

03<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u6700\u540e\u76844\u5929\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5171\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u5404\u5730\u4e3e\u529e17\u573a\u96c6\u4f1a\uff0c\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u9020\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6709\u4eba\u5c31\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6ca1\u6709\u56de\u5929\u4e4b\u529b\uff0c\u624d\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u51e0\u5e74\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u52a8\u8d38\u6613\u653b\u51fb\uff0c\u5728\u53f0\u6d77\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u505a\u51fa\u5f88\u591a\u51fa\u683c\u7684\u4e3e\u52a8\uff0c\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6307\u624b\u753b\u811a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u75ab\u60c5\u9632\u63a7\u4e0d\u529b\uff0c\u5374\u53cd\u800c\u7529\u9505\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u4e0d\u9519\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u6362\u62dc\u767b\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c31\u4f1a\u597d\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u62dc\u767b\u63a5\u53d7\u5a92\u4f53\u91c7\u8bbf<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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2,672 ◆中美关系回不到过去了。 正解局出品 美国大选，决战正式打响。 今天，是美国第59届总统的选举日。 特朗普，继续留任，还是拜登，入主白宫？ 全世界都在等待最后的结果。 因为，特朗普这样的非典型政客，在过去的4年里，不按照套路出牌，把世界原有的秩序搅得一团乱。 有人因此也认为，特朗普落败，会利好中国。 但真的是这样吗？ 特朗普参加竞选造势活动 01 美国历史上，竞争空前激烈的一次大选 这次总统大选，不仅国外关注，在美国历史上也注定是极其不一样的一次大选。 由于遇到新冠疫情，所以，很多州开始提前投票，或者通过邮递投票。 有统计说，有将近1亿的美国选民在大选日前就已经完成投票。 在美国历史上，这是提前投票最多的一次。 有预测，这次美国将有1.5亿左右的选民投票，也将是美国历史上参与人数最多的一次大选。 尽管大疫当前，美国很多地方的气温已经很低（比如纽约气温已经跌到10℃以下），但是选民们仍然排起了长队，排好几个小时的队，亲自投票。 选民们，也希望用选票来做出自己认为正确的选择。 特朗普支持者的活动 哪怕是最后关头，不管是特朗普，还是拜登，还在铆足了劲儿做最后的冲刺。 先看特朗普。 11月1日，大周末。 特朗普从北到南，一天，在5个州举办竞选集会。 早上8点出发，从密歇根州开始，接下来是艾奥瓦、北卡罗来纳、佐治亚，最后到达佛罗里达州。 最后一场集会开始时间，已是深夜11点。 11月2日，特朗普继续奔赴4个州，举办5场竞选活动。 下面是在底特律的奥克兰郡，当时气温只有个位数，还刮着风、下着雨，特朗普撑着伞，都被刮得有些站不稳。 74岁，吃得这份苦头。 还真的佩服特朗普的干劲儿。 拜登这一方，也同样没闲着。 抖音上就流传过一个热门视频，前总统奥巴马像推销员一样，亲自打电话给陌生的选民，拜托选民，动员他们的家人，一起投票支持拜登。 搬出前总统助阵不稀奇，但是像奥巴马这样电话催票，还是罕见。 这些虽然都只是小细节，但说明，这次美国大选竞争激烈程度，可能是空前的。 02 特朗普大势不妙 特朗普很拼，在先前的公开辩论中火力也很猛。 但很可惜，目前的整体形势，对特朗普十分不利。 拿下美国总统大位，关键是拿下538张选举人票的多数，也就是至少270票。 根据CNN统计，拜登胜券在握的有203票，相比之下特朗普只有125票。 这次大选，我们外人看起来，特朗普气势很足。 但在各类民调，不论是美国选情网站270toWin、RealClearPolitics等的大选地图、纽约时报、经济学人等各类预测，拜登都几乎“躺赢”。 特朗普似乎从一开始，就没有得到祝福。 虽然，目前来看特朗普大势不妙，但因为有大量邮递选票，这次选举计票也将异常复杂。 比如，佛罗里达州、亚利桑那州在前几周，就开始预先处理邮寄选票。但威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州，从11月3日才能开始处理这些票。 还比如，佐治亚州要求11月3日当天及之前收到的邮寄选票，才算作有效票，但俄亥俄州明确只要是在11月3日之前寄出的邮寄选票都是有效票。 以往几次大选，当天晚上，最迟第二天凌晨，就能知道投票结果。 但这次，开出最后的结果，需要更长的时间。 所以，特朗普是去，是留，还要等上一段时间。 03 特朗普即便下台，对中国也不见得是好事 最后的4天，特朗普一共在全国各地举办17场集会，为自己造势。 有人就认为，特朗普没有回天之力，才好。 因为，这几年，特朗普在经济领域对中国发动贸易攻击，在台海问题上，也做出很多出格的举动，在很多问题上对中国指手画脚。 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